Milano, 29 lug. (askanews) - Il Fondo Monetario Internazionale ha rivisto al rialzo le sue previsioni di crescita globale. Gli sforzi per aggirare i dazi di Trump hanno innescato un'impennata degli scambi commerciali superiore alle aspettative, mentre il presidente degli Stati Uniti ha poi ritirato alcune delle sue minacce più dure. "Lo shock tariffario in realtà non è così grave come avevamo previsto all'inizio di aprile", ha affermato Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, capo economista del Fmi. "L'inflazione è più o meno sulla buona strada. Quindi sembra davvero un'ottima situazione, ma come sottolineiamo, ci sono motivi per essere molto cauti".
00:00So we are seeing growth for 25% that is revised upward slightly to about 3% for this year from 2.8% in our April projections.
00:08So that's kind of good news. At the same time inflation is more or less on track, so really it looks great.
00:15But as we point out, there are reasons to be very cautious.
00:18The tariff shock is in fact not as bad as we were projecting in early April.
00:23Why? Well, because there have been pauses that have been announced and then there have been some announcement of trade deals with a number of countries.
00:31And we are expecting to see tariff rates that are lower than what we were projecting in early April.
00:37To give you a sense, around 17% for U.S. tariffs on the rest of the world.
00:42Back in April, we were expecting something of the order of 24%.
00:45Businesses were trying to front load, move stuff around before the tariffs were imposed.
00:50And so that's supporting economic activity.
00:53There is going to be payback for that.
00:55If you stock the shelves now, you don't need to stock them later in the year or into the next year.
01:00So we're going to see, we expect to see reduced trade activity down the road in the second half of the year and into 2026.
01:07So that's one of the factors that leads us to be cautious.
