- 2 days ago
Patrick is joined by Mick West to discuss the Mosul UFO Video released on the latest Weaponized Podcast with Jeremy Corbell and George Knapp.
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https://youtu.be/jiIYMF8YVkY?si=5TLGmAe65LBa-t3C
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https://youtu.be/jiIYMF8YVkY?si=5TLGmAe65LBa-t3C
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NewsTranscript
00:00What are your thoughts on this, I don't even know how to pronounce it, Mosul orb?
00:06Is it Mosul? I'm not sure how to pronounce it.
00:08Yeah, Mosul.
00:09Mosul, okay.
00:10Yeah, it's a town in Iraq, near Baghdad, just north of Baghdad.
00:13It looks like a balloon to me.
00:15It's moving like a balloon.
00:17What I was able to do, we had the photo that came out earlier,
00:21and now we just got the video.
00:22The video has the on-screen data redacted,
00:26and the photo actually has the information on it,
00:30so it actually has the location on the photo in the bottom right corner.
00:35It's in military format, but you can convert it.
00:37You can actually just type that into Google Earth,
00:39and it will take you to the location.
00:41We have other things in there.
00:43We have the distance to the target,
00:48which I think is about 26,000 feet or something like that,
00:51and we have the altitude of the plane itself.
00:53I can't remember what it was exactly,
00:56but so I took these,
00:57and I put them all into my software, SitRec,
01:00and put a plane moving along,
01:03and then I built a little 3D model of the houses
01:06and dropped that in as well,
01:08and we also have the date and the time
01:12in the top right corner, top left corner.
01:16Put that in as well,
01:17so we know exactly when it was.
01:18We know where it was.
01:19We know roughly where the plane taking it was,
01:21because we know the distance and the heading.
01:23We know roughly how fast it's moving
01:26because we have the rotation
01:27and the buildings rotate very slightly,
01:29and I dropped all that in.
01:32The first thing you notice is
01:33that if you drop a sphere in that location,
01:39the highlight on the sphere is exactly the same
01:42as the highlight on the sphere in the video,
01:44which means a couple of things.
01:46It means that it is actually a sphere,
01:47and it is actually that time of day.
01:50The time of day is correct,
01:52and it means that I have the plane in the right location,
01:56and then we see that the lines of sight,
01:58it's a very, very narrow field of view.
01:59It's like half a degree or something like that,
02:01so they're actually like five miles away
02:03from this house that they're videoing,
02:05and the lines of sight kind of cross over,
02:09so there's actually a point in the middle
02:10of the lines of sight which isn't moving,
02:11so you can actually stick a balloon there
02:14and say if a balloon was just standing here in space,
02:19the parallax motion of the craft
02:21would make it look like it whizzed through the frame.
02:25Oh, that's interesting.
02:26So the balloon or the object
02:29could be just standing still.
02:31Yeah, essentially.
02:32It wouldn't, if it's at that exact point,
02:35it would actually stay in the same position,
02:37but actually, no, it wouldn't.
02:39The, oh yeah, the, what seems to be
02:45the most likely explanation is
02:46that it's something drifting in the wind
02:48at about 10 miles per hour,
02:49so what I did, you get all these lines of sight
02:51from these, putting these numbers in,
02:53and I have some algorithms in SITREC
02:58that actually try to solve a possible traversal path
03:02across these lines of sight,
03:03so we know that it goes from this position on screen
03:06to this position, what does that mean in three dimensions?
03:08And I found, like, a good solution
03:10moving about 10 miles per hour,
03:12and it was moving towards the southeast.
03:17And so I actually went,
03:18after I found that,
03:20I went and looked at what the wind was
03:22on that day,
03:24and it turns out it was about 10 miles per hour
03:28towards the southeast.
03:30So it matches exactly for the time of day,
03:34the location, the weather,
03:36and being a balloon just floating in the air.
03:40Just floating, yeah, just floating by.
03:42There's nothing in it that's inconsistent
03:45with it being a balloon.
03:47Like what kind of balloon?
03:48Like just like a party balloon?
03:50No, it looks like a fairly large balloon,
03:52like four to six feet,
03:54so some kind of weather balloon,
03:55or perhaps like a radar target
03:57or something like that.
03:59So it seems like it's a fairly large balloon,
04:03from what we can tell.
04:06That's interesting.
04:07Yeah, not super large.
04:09Don't you think they would have other video
04:11that would have caught balloons too,
04:13and then the Air Force would know,
04:15oh, this is what it looks like?
04:16Like why can't they do what you just told me,
04:19like all of that?
04:19They're doing it.
04:20I mean, that's what Arrow is doing,
04:21and they've already resolved scores
04:25and scores of cases to be balloons.
04:27So now they're kind of building,
04:29I guess, a body of knowledge
04:31of what balloons look like
04:33from these cameras.
04:37And I'm pretty,
04:39I would imagine that this example
04:40that they have here
04:42would be one that they've looked at.
04:44It seems very consistent with other ones.
04:47They released another one
04:48called the Middle East Sphere,
04:50which was kind of a similar type of thing.
04:52And it looked like a balloon,
04:53it looked like a sphere
04:54moving very, very fast
04:55from the top of the screen down,
04:56and then the camera tracks it.
04:58But that, again,
04:59you can kind of like put in the numbers
05:01and the trigonometry and everything,
05:03and it's just the parallax effect
05:05of the drone moving.
05:07The balloon is just drifting in the wind.
05:09But because it's like between
05:11the camera and the ground,
05:14it looks like it's moving very fast.
05:15Very similar thing
05:16with the old Go Fast video.
05:19That was the same type of thing.
05:20You know, it looks like it's a balloon,
05:22and all the motion is apparent motion
05:25plus a bit of wind.
05:27It's a very common thing.
05:28And I think that...
05:30That's what the Mosul is.
05:32Yeah, I don't think people were...
05:35Essentially, don't think
05:35they were adequately trained
05:37to be able to disambiguate things like this
05:39or deconflict things like this.
05:41And that's something I think
05:43that's being remedied now.
05:45You know, we got loads and loads of reports.
05:46Pilots are reporting UFOs.
05:49But lots of them are balloons.
05:52You know, something I think it's like...
05:53Like, I don't know,
05:5680% of all the resolved cases were balloons,
05:58and like 10% were birds,
06:00and 5% was something else.
06:02Now, there's unresolved cases as well,
06:04but there's no real indication
06:05that we've got any great data
06:08like showing those unresolved cases
06:10doing anything anomalous.
06:11We have, like, cases like this
06:13where something looks anomalous,
06:15and sometimes you can do analysis on it,
06:17but sometimes you can't.
06:19Yeah, no, I mean, I get it.
06:21So you think it's a balloon
06:22because of the shape and everything,
06:25but because that would be
06:28the most likely prosaic explanation
06:29of a sphere-type object to you?
06:32Exactly.
06:32It could be something else, though.
06:34Sure.
06:35We know...
06:36You know, we've got the lines of sight
06:38from the camera to the target,
06:41which is a big spot on the ground.
06:43Yeah, yeah.
06:44There, we know from that
06:45that, you know,
06:47it could be any number of things.
06:49I think the...
06:50Oh, is it the...
06:53The...
06:54The largest it could be is...
07:01I think it was something like
07:02a three-metre sphere,
07:04like a 10-foot sphere
07:05moving at about 100 miles per hour
07:0820 feet above those buildings.
07:11Wow.
07:11Oh, so it could be that.
07:13That's interesting.
07:14The fastest and...
07:15Not exactly the fastest,
07:16but, you know,
07:17it's the fastest distant object.
07:19It could be a very small object,
07:21you know,
07:21as it gets closer to the camera,
07:22then obviously it's going to be smaller.
07:24Sure.
07:26With that size.
07:27Sure.
07:28Yeah, but...
07:28And the speed decreases,
07:30like,
07:30until you get to this kind of crossover point,
07:32and then it starts increasing again.
07:34Sure.
07:34And then it becomes something
07:35that's actually whizzing past
07:36the outside of the plane.
07:39Yeah.
07:39But that would have to actually have
07:41some additional velocity difference
07:43to the actual plane itself,
07:45which would make it faster.
07:46So, you know,
07:47it could be a very, very small
07:49alien spaceship
07:50whizzing past the plane.
07:52Yeah.
07:53Yeah.
07:53But, you know,
07:53out of the things we know in the universe,
07:55we know that there are balloons.
07:57Sure.
07:57I'm sure it seems a little bit weird,
07:58you know,
07:58why is there a large silvery balloon
08:01floating over Mosul?
08:02Is that more weird
08:04than there being a tiny alien spaceship
08:05flying at a weird angle over Mosul?
08:08That's a fair point.
08:09It's like, you know,
08:10we have a hypothesis
08:11that fits the facts.
08:13Sure.
08:14Sure.
08:15The hypothesis that this is like
08:16an alien craft
08:17can fit any set of facts.
08:19Sure.
08:19So it's kind of like,
08:20you know,
08:21it's not really,
08:22there's no reason,
08:23Occam's razor says
08:25that we should go with the one
08:25where you don't have to invent
08:26a whole bunch of new things
08:28like aliens to explain it.
08:29We've got things that we know exist
08:30like balloons.
08:31We know that it matches,
08:33you know,
08:34the size of a,
08:35like a weather balloon.
08:36We know that it's going
08:37in the same direction
08:38where it could be going
08:39in the same direction
08:39as the wind was that day
08:41at the same speed
08:41the wind was that day.
08:43Yeah.
08:43And we know it's just
08:44a round featureless orb
08:46that is reflecting the sun.
08:48So it kind of looks like a balloon
08:49and moves like a balloon.
08:50Could be an alien spaceship.
08:52But,
08:53you know,
08:53I'd put balloon
08:54as my number one hypothesis.
08:56Yeah.
08:57I mean,
08:57but that is interesting
08:58that it could be
08:59a 10 foot object
09:00flying at 100 miles an hour
09:01over the building.
09:02I think someone
09:03would have noticed that there.
09:04I mean,
09:05you would think,
09:05right?
09:06You would think.
09:07I agree.
09:07People on the ground
09:08would have noticed that.
09:09I mean,
09:09maybe they used to seeing these.
09:12Yeah,
09:12yeah,
09:12totally.
09:13100 miles per hour
09:14isn't that fast
09:15in terms of being able
09:16to see it.
09:17It would be like a...
09:18In the speed.
09:18Yeah,
09:19in the sky.
09:19Yeah.
09:20It would be like
09:20a helicopter flying
09:21by the head.
09:22Well,
09:23that's a good point.
09:23Except a giant sphere.
09:25Yeah.
09:25Yeah.
09:25If you've got like
09:26a 10 foot wide sphere
09:27flying over,
09:28there would be reports,
09:29I think.
09:30Yeah,
09:31no,
09:31that's a fair point for sure.
09:32I saw the tweets.
09:34I don't get involved.
09:36You know,
09:36I don't respond or anything,
09:37but about the puddle
09:39or something.
09:40Originally,
09:41people had thought
09:41that it was a puddle,
09:42then Gary Nolan.
09:44I don't even know
09:44what happened there,
09:46but...
09:47Well,
09:47it's like
09:48people thought
09:49it looked like a puddle,
09:50and even some people
09:51on Metabunk
09:51were suggesting that,
09:53and I,
09:53you know,
09:53I could tell it wasn't a puddle
09:54because the lighting
09:55didn't make any sense.
09:56Yeah.
09:57Because you can see
09:57the shadows on the ground
09:58are pointing across the street,
10:00but the sun would have had to been
10:01like on the other side
10:02of the street
10:03for it to be reflecting
10:04off a puddle,
10:05so,
10:05you know,
10:06we knew it wasn't a puddle,
10:07so I never thought
10:08it was a puddle,
10:09and I argued against it,
10:11but Gary Nolan,
10:13back in 2023,
10:15posted like,
10:16you know,
10:17some video game designer
10:18said it was a puddle,
10:20and I think based on that,
10:22people like have this idea
10:24that I thought
10:24it was a puddle.
10:26Yeah.
10:27Yeah.
10:27I never did,
10:28and I immediately told him that,
10:30but I never did,
10:31but it's one of those things
10:32that caught on,
10:33like I think everything's
10:33a seagull,
10:34or everything's a balloon,
10:36or,
10:36you know,
10:36whatever.
10:37Yeah.
10:37No,
10:37it's just silly.
10:39It was one of those theories,
10:40you know,
10:41like something stuck on the lens
10:42explains the jellyfish,
10:43you know,
10:44it kind of seems
10:45superficially attractive
10:47because it seems like
10:48a good explanation,
10:49and you go,
10:49oh yeah,
10:49it looks a bit like a puddle,
10:50but then you think about it,
10:51and like,
10:52no,
10:52like,
10:52you know,
10:53something on the lens
10:53wouldn't be in focus,
10:55puddle wouldn't reflect
10:56the water,
10:57so we eventually hone in
11:00on the more likely hypothesis.
11:03Yeah,
11:03I hear you.
11:03I wonder why there's no,
11:06like,
11:08you know,
11:08I don't know,
11:09maybe some of these groups,
11:10like Sol,
11:11or some of these other groups,
11:12like,
11:12why they don't do what
11:14Metabunk does,
11:15and what y'all do,
11:16like,
11:16why can't they build these systems
11:17and prove they're alien,
11:19or more anomalous than they are,
11:21does that make sense?
11:21Like,
11:22y'all are out here
11:23doing this work,
11:24like,
11:24why is there no?
11:26The software I did
11:27is like free to use.
11:28I mean,
11:28it's a web app,
11:30anyone can go to,
11:31you go to sitrec.org,
11:32it'll take you to it.
11:34Yeah,
11:35I agree.
11:35You can drop things in,
11:36and you can try out
11:37different hypotheses,
11:38and you know,
11:39see,
11:40you know,
11:40all it's doing is,
11:41is taking the data,
11:43and creating a 3D model,
11:46that matches the data,
11:47with all the possibilities.
11:49So,
11:49in my model,
11:50like,
11:50I could,
11:51I changed the distance,
11:53and so that it became like,
11:55you know,
11:55an orb going 100 feet,
11:57100 miles per hour,
11:58just above the ground,
11:59and I could change the distance,
12:00so it's in the middle,
12:01and it's more like a balloon,
12:02and I changed the distance,
12:03so it's close to the plane,
12:04and it's like a,
12:05a tiny little anomalous object.
12:08So,
12:09anyone can do that,
12:09anyone can explore the range
12:11of possibilities,
12:12that you have,
12:13that,
12:13that kind of fit this,
12:15and then,
12:16you know,
12:16figure out for themselves,
12:18what are the things more likely?
12:20You know,
12:20a balloon fits,
12:21alien spaceship also fits,
12:23is it 50-50?
12:24No,
12:25I don't think it is,
12:25I think it's,
12:26you know,
12:26a million times more likely,
12:27to be a balloon,
12:28than it is an alien spaceship,
12:30because we've got,
12:31trillions of balloons,
12:32in the planet,
12:33and we've,
12:33never seen any good evidence,
12:35of any alien spaceships existing,
12:37so,
12:38yeah,
12:38sort of thing,
12:38that seems more common.
12:40More,
12:40more,
12:41more common,
12:41I mean,
12:42but you do think there's aliens,
12:43like,
12:44out,
12:45outside of Earth,
12:46you think there's more life,
12:47outside of Earth,
12:47yeah,
12:48I do too.
12:48Definitely,
12:49yeah,
12:49but probably a long way away,
12:51sure,
12:51and maybe not,
12:53you know,
12:53a long way away,
12:54both in space,
12:54and,
12:55and in time,
12:55there's probably civilizations,
12:58that's emerged,
12:59flourished,
13:00and died away,
13:01millions,
13:02or even billions,
13:03of years ago,
13:04and,
13:05there will be more,
13:06in the future,
13:06and who knows,
13:08what we are coincident with,
13:09and what is nearby,
13:11but I think it's inevitable,
13:12that intelligent civilization,
13:15has arisen,
13:17and will arise again,
13:19in the universe.
13:20Yeah,
13:21yeah,
13:21I think so too,
13:22I think it's so vast,
13:24but I agree,
13:24that the,
13:25the distance,
13:27in time and space,
13:28yeah,
13:28it's so interesting,
13:29yeah,
13:30I'm looking,
13:31as you know,
13:33I'm excited about the day,
13:35when that,
13:37when it is,
13:37there is some more generally,
13:39you know,
13:40accepted confirmation,
13:42that we're not alone,
13:44and not just that we confirm,
13:45we're not alone,
13:45but like,
13:46there's some sort of like,
13:47visit or something,
13:48along those lines,
13:49you know,
13:49like,
13:49communication with,
13:51yeah,
13:51some sort of,
13:52yeah,
13:53like that,
13:54that's interesting to me,
13:55like,
13:55when that day comes,
13:57and will we regret,
14:00you know,
14:00getting off this island,
14:02right,
14:03like,
14:03and like,
14:04could we regret that,
14:05actually?
14:06I know,
14:07there's,
14:07there's,
14:07read some science fiction,
14:08there's a whole bunch of,
14:09possible features.
14:10yeah,
14:11yeah,
14:12yeah,
14:13oh man,
14:14it's like,
14:14I want it,
14:15but at the same time,
14:16I don't want it,
14:17you know,
14:18it's like,
14:18maybe that's not a good thing,
14:20well,
14:21you can say that about AI,
14:22but you know,
14:22it's happening,
14:23and if,
14:24if intelligent life is out there,
14:26in the universe,
14:27yeah,
14:27I think we're going to discover it,
14:28one way or another,
14:30yeah,
14:30I mean,
14:31it's like,
14:32I'm glad I wasn't around,
14:34when cars were invented,
14:35because people were dying,
14:35left and right,
14:36I mean,
14:36they didn't even get seatbelts,
14:38so later,
14:38it's like,
14:38but I want to be there,
14:40for when it's,
14:40when it's kind of,
14:41most of the things have worked out,
14:43so it's like,
14:44I almost wish,
14:45I grew up in a world,
14:46where we had already made contact,
14:48hundreds of years has passed,
14:49and all the bullshit,
14:50all the wars happen,
14:51later,
14:52like Columbus meeting the Indians,
14:53right,
14:53like we're past that point,
14:55yeah,
14:56I think we have to go through,
14:57the interesting times,
14:58before we get to the,
15:00the times in London,
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