Astros chances of winning individual hardward

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00:00You gotta pick one. You got however much money you're comfortable placing on one big wager

00:05and you gotta pick one and obviously the odds would be different on different guys. You know,

00:09the chances of Frambois Valdez winning a Cy Young different than the chances of Joe Espada winning

00:14Manager of the Year. But let's just say, you know, you gotta be comfortable you're gonna win

00:18some money. Who would you place? If you had to, just knowing you had to win the bet, however much

00:23it is, which Astro, either coaching staff or player, would you place money on to win a postseason

00:31award as of right now? I think you and I are aligned probably on how we would power rank this.

00:38The guy I've been most impressed by since he moved to the leadoff role has been Jeremy Pena. And when

00:46healthy, he's been one of the best players in baseball by wins above replacement and whatnot.

00:51And yet Aaron Judge is being annoyingly Aaron Judge. Yeah, we live in a world with Aaron Judge in

00:57the American League and Shohei in the National League. Like nobody's winning the MVPs in either

01:01league. Let's remember that it's a regular season award, everybody. It doesn't matter that Aaron

01:05Judge is going to fall apart in the playoffs. It just doesn't matter. So I don't, I would put him

01:11as probably the last, he's the least likely to win one of these awards. If his award is MVP, I think

01:17he's probably least likely to win it. I agree. I 100% agree with you. And he's going to end up

01:21missing at least a month of the season once this is all said and done to that's just, that's an

01:25absolute, he was, he had an uphill climb, even if he were playing at the level he was playing at

01:29healthy through the last three, four weeks. That hasn't been the case. He's at the bottom for me as

01:35well. I would say the next, there's five people that have a chance. Okay. There's the, we got the

01:40two guys at the top of the rotation in Frambois and Hunter, Joe Espada, manager of the year,

01:46Cam Smith, rookie of the year, and then Pena MVP. Seth and I went through some ESPN rankings

01:50yesterday, some metric that they've come up with that combines wins above replacement,

01:54a lot of the advanced stats. And all of these guys are top four or five right now in the American

01:59league to win these respective awards. Cam Smith has, I, I, not an equally uphill battle as

02:07Pena because a Cam Smith is healthy and B there's no rookie that's having a year that's as dominant

02:11versus other rookies as Aaron judge is having versus everybody else for the MVP. And Cam Smith's

02:17made up a ton of ground at rookie of the year, but Jacob Wilson's going to be really tough to catch

02:21with the, uh, with the athletics. As of right now, um, Cam Smith is the favorite for rookie of the

02:26year. What? Uh, in the AL, at least according to whoever ESPN is citing. Yeah. Whoa. Okay.

02:33Oh, ESPN bet. ESPN, ESPN is citing ESPN bet where Cam Smith is the favorite. I take it all back.

02:39All right. That would be awesome. Well, and just ahead of, uh, Jacob Wilson and Nick, Nick Hertz,

02:45whichever that's too close to Dick Hertz, but for my liking, but, uh, the, yeah, yeah. So he is as

02:50of, at least as of three days ago and assuming nothing has changed during the all-star break,

02:55Cam Smith is the favorite. They are going in different directions. Look, Jacob Wilson's

02:58going to get a lot of shine because he got voted in to start the all-star game. He's got a higher

03:01profile than Cam Smith right now, but Cam Smith is coming on in that category and Cam Smith,

03:05unlike Jacob Wilson is going to be playing in a lot of important games in all likelihood down

03:09the stretch. The A's are going to be an afterthought. Nobody's going to be watching A's games and

03:13they're going in different directions right now. Jacob Wilson was off to a, uh, just a white hot

03:18start at the beginning of the season and has, you know, understandably kind of the numbers have

03:23dropped a little bit. Whereas Cam Smith has gotten better and better as the year's gone on. Like

03:28middle of May, Cam Smith was batting in the low two hundreds, um, before he went over 10 to kind

03:34of close out the, the figurative first half of the season. Like he had a bad series over the weekend

03:38against who did they play? I know they played the guardians early in the week and they played who,

03:43I forget who they played going into the break. Oh, the Rangers. Um, he had a bad Rangers. Oh,

03:47you're talking about the, I'm talking about, yeah, I'm talking about Cam Smith. He had a bad

03:50Rangers series, still batting in the high two seventies, still batting well over 300 since whatever

03:55date you want to cherry pick in May. Uh, OPS has been good. The power numbers are going to come

04:01along at some point here. That's the, that may be the part I'm most excited about with Cam Smith,

04:06Seth, is that just basically pure, we know he's got raw power. It hasn't translated into a ton of

04:11home runs yet, but you feel like at any time, especially given the way he's just gotten the

04:16science of hitting down at the major league level, just purely hitting. Is it eventually the power

04:21is going to be there? And maybe there's a September where Cam Smith hits like seven or eight

04:26bombs in important games in September. We know the clutch gene is there. He's the best hitter on this

04:31team with runner and scoring position too. I think that's the craziest thing. The craziest thing

04:36about Cam Smith is he's one of the best right fielders defensively in baseball right now. He's

04:45the 88th percentile of range and arm strength. And, um, he's, he's done so well in right field after

04:54kind of a break in period. It's not, he's got three outs above average. It's a, you know,

04:59his run value is one. It's not like incredibly, you know, gold glove type stuff or anything,

05:04but he's, he's for a guy who's played a total of four games in the outfield in his playing career.

05:12And that was in summer league and left field. He's a vet. He's a veteran out there in right

05:17field. You just, you feel good about him being out there. When again, we're just asking him to win

05:21rookie of the year, not MVP. You know, he doesn't have to be through the, you know, it would help

05:24if he's through the roof and either offensively or defensively. Um, but I like the way he's

05:29trending for sure. Okay. So I have Cam Smith, the second least likely of the five, the odds

05:35makers, purely the odds makers you're looking at are making me think I need to bump him at the

05:40very least ahead of the two pitchers, Frambois Valdez and Hunter Brown for the Cy Young award.

05:45Um, you know, it's boy, it is just such a tough American league when it comes to starting pitch.

05:50I mean, Frambois Valdez didn't make the all-star team and he's, and they've won his last 13

05:56starts. He's won nine straight decisions. They've won 13 straight games that he's been

06:01the starting pitcher in right now. And the guy didn't make the freaking all-star team.

06:04It is just, it is a tough sledding at that position.

06:06They are on ESPN bet has Hunter Brown as the fourth, uh, the fourth at 15 to one. And then

06:14Frambois Frambois is sixth, but it's at 50 to one. Um, like that value. Yeah. Right. Frambois.

06:22I mean, Oh, that's true. Yeah. Frambois really pours it on. I mean, he, he, he, he's not missing

06:28the all-star game because he doesn't deserve to be there. I think he didn't make the all-star

06:32team just cause there's too many good guys. And he got off to a slow start. And I think

06:36first impressions when it comes to stuff like that is more important than the most oddly,

06:41the most recent impressions, you know, that's plus based on nothing, but visiting announcers

06:46and national broadcasters, they annoyingly still refer to him as a guy that will have,

06:52you know, bipolar meltdowns from time to time, which is just, it's, it's been years now where

06:57he's been pretty damn consistent. I mean, once he went on that consecutive streak of quality

07:02starts, he's been a different guy than the early version of Frambois Valdez. And yet that

07:07perception remains.

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