- today
Tinatin Japaridze, an analyst with Eurasia Group, joined "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss the latest in the Russia-Ukraine war, including President Trump's threat to impose "severe" tariffs on Russia if it refuses to reach a peace deal with Ukraine in 50 days.
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00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now
00:07is Tinnaton Japerice, an analyst with Eurasia Group. Tinnaton, thank you so much for coming
00:12back on. Thank you so much for having me back, Brittany. President Trump made some announcements
00:17regarding the Russia-Ukraine war this week. And I want to get into those because every couple of
00:22weeks, you and I have a conversation and talk about the state of this conflict. And to remind
00:27our viewers, the last time you and I spoke was at the beginning of June, right after Operation
00:32Spidersweb, which was a complex drone attack executed by Ukraine that hit multiple military
00:38bases deep within Russia, destroying dozens of the country's aircraft and reportedly totaling
00:43billions of dollars in damage. Weeks later, before we get into the announcements, before we get into
00:48the U.S. position here, what is the state of the battlefield in this conflict? So obviously we are
00:55seeing some Russian gains on the battlefield in terms of territory, but in terms of anything
01:02earth-shattering, it's very much, I would say, in a bit of a stalemate in terms of the progress that
01:09the Russian side is making. Also, Ukraine, as you and I have talked about this in the past,
01:14continues to unfortunately deal with its own manpower issues, the deficit that we've been observing for
01:21quite a while now. So the same challenges continue. And I think both Russia and Ukraine have been
01:28waiting for the United States and specifically President Trump to actually come out and in many
01:35ways, I think, dictate how this trajectory in terms of the war and what's happening politically and not
01:43just vis-a-vis the battlefield development, how that continues to develop going forward. Because of course,
01:49the United States has a major say because in many ways, the U.S. has been responsible for a lot of
01:56the support that Ukraine has been getting in terms of weapons deliveries and so forth over the past few
02:03years. So many were watching Washington very closely to see whether or not we would see Donald Trump
02:12losing patience with President Putin, becoming more and more frustrated because obviously the promise
02:19that President Trump had made coming back to the White House and also the promise that he thought
02:26he had received in some way from his Russian counterpart, that was really not delivered.
02:32So we were all very interested to see whether or not that would mean that President Trump would
02:38essentially start getting tired of the back and forth with Moscow and in some way start to rethink
02:45whether he should instead increase support for Ukraine, which I think is some of what we are
02:50observing already. And I think something that you and I have talked about at length is the change in
02:56relationship between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, because President Trump
03:03was very complimentary of Putin at the beginning of this second term here. And the trajectory of where that
03:08relationship is right now is interesting. And President Trump said this earlier this week,
03:13quote, my conversations with him meeting Putin are always very pleasant. I say, isn't that a very
03:18lovely conversation? And the missiles go off that night. I go home, I tell the First Lady, I spoke with
03:24Vladimir today. We had a wonderful conversation. She said, oh, really, another city was just hit.
03:29Why do you think we're seeing this change in the relationship? Do you think it's because based on that
03:34comment, it sounds like he feels that he's getting played by Putin? I think so. And I think those around
03:44President Trump, who may have been hinting this, have have tried have been trying to convey essentially
03:51the same message that it is very difficult, if not impossible to trust Vladimir Putin. We know his track
03:58record all too well. We've been watching him for over 25 years now. So it's difficult to make a deal
04:06with someone who is not necessarily going to be acting on his own words. And of course, President
04:12Trump, even though he has some history with Putin, and they have worked together in the past, under his
04:19first presidency, nonetheless, he was still hoping that he would be able to get Putin to come to the table
04:27purely as an entrepreneur to sort of give Putin something that he cannot refuse. From what I can
04:34gather watching from this side of the Atlantic, I don't think that whatever offer, whatever carrots
04:43were proposed to Vladimir Putin were sufficient for Putin. I think there may have been a momentum
04:50there. When President Trump came back to the White House, for Putin to essentially be given something
04:58that he would find very difficult to say no to. And that did not happen. For whatever reason, it was not
05:04enough for Putin, he wanted more, perhaps what he wanted was unrealistic, and Washington could not deliver
05:12that to Moscow. And therefore, what we're seeing now is that both the United States as well as Russia are
05:19starting to lose patience with the other a little bit. And that is very clear to me already, because
05:26obviously, President Trump's rhetoric is changing, his whole stance toward the Kremlin is changing, the tone is not
05:33what it was, certainly. And, you know, all of this was triggered in many ways, I think, by this sort of growing
05:40personal frustration with Putin. And when we last connected, Brittany, President Trump was still speaking,
05:46as you said, rather glowingly of his Russian counterpart. But of course, as predicted, and I think we could have
05:52all anticipated this, one's patience has limits. And here, the US president is going to be no exception to the
05:59rule. And this frustration is not just mounting with President Trump, excuse me, but in Washington
06:07overall, because none of the promises that may have been made behind closed doors between Moscow and also,
06:16obviously, the White House has sort of been delivered upon by the Russian side. And they're continuing to
06:25say that they will come to the table with something. Also, Washington has sort of been telling us all
06:31publicly that there is a deal that is in the making that it is imminent. But in reality, it is not a deal
06:40that is imminent. In fact, I would say that the deal is probably further away from being achieved than it
06:47was a few months ago, because it's very, very clear that Vladimir Putin is not ready to actually start
06:54negotiating. His hardline stance remains very hardline. And there isn't anything at the moment
07:01that will make him come to the table and agree to essentially concessions, which I think is what
07:08President Trump was hoping for. And it seems like to your point, President Trump's patience is wearing
07:14thin. And I'm curious if you think money and a financial squeeze will bring President Putin to the
07:20table because President Trump threatened some pretty tough tariffs on Russia. He said that he's going
07:26to slap Russia with very severe tariffs at about 100 percent if a peace deal with Ukraine isn't reached
07:32in 50 days. And that threat was made on Monday. He also threatened secondary tariffs. And these were
07:37later explained as tariffs on countries like China, like India that buy Russian oil. So do you think that's
07:45going to bring Putin to the table? I don't think so, at least not for the time being. Because in many
07:53ways, I think that the biggest risk here is sort of any disruption to global energy markets, right? And
08:00that is Putin's usually biggest fear. And that is that card that everybody tries to play vis-a-vis Russia
08:07when it comes to their energy. So in terms of any major disruptions, for the time being at least,
08:14we see that that's going to be unlikely. President Trump also has historically been quite reluctant
08:20to enact any policies that might spark substantial increases in global energy prices. So while sanctions
08:27against Russian energy will remain the primary economic tool, even moderate actions like adjusting
08:33the price cap on Russian oil exports will, for the time being, probably at least for the next 50 days
08:41be sort of in place, sorry, on hold. But I think that it very much depends on what happens after the 50
08:49days. I don't anticipate any miracles from the Russian side over the next 50 days. Although having
08:55said that, the 50-day deadline does strike me as overly generous, just given the fact that if Putin
09:02was going to come to the table with something, he probably would have done so by now.
09:07Yeah, that is an interesting timeline, because President Trump, if we remember with the conflict
09:12with Iran, he gave Iran a few weeks or so, and then he struck just a few days later. Do you think
09:19that 50 days President Trump will realize, hey, maybe I was too dreadnest with that and back it up at
09:25all? Is there any chance of that? He could. He could. He could because I think there's a chance
09:31that conversations will continue over the next few weeks between Moscow and Washington. Off the record,
09:39probably behind closed doors. And if he gets any signals from Moscow that Putin is not going to
09:47budge today and he's not going to budge in 50 days, then he is likely to actually do something
09:53before then. I don't think that this is necessarily set in stone. I think he had to put a date on it just
10:00to show that he actually means it. And this is a real deadline. But there are no guarantees that
10:07President Trump is not going to do something prior to that as well, especially if the Russian side
10:13does not continue to just bomb cities across Ukraine, but actually increasing increases its
10:19attacks. I mean, so far, we're talking probably about critical infrastructure and so forth about
10:24in terms of the main targets. But even so, if there is something that President Trump sees from the other
10:29side that he really dislikes, and he realizes that he's being played in this respect in Moscow,
10:36then we cannot rule out that he may do something before 50 days are up.
10:42And in that same press conference, President Trump announced this sort of roundabout way
10:47to give Ukraine weapons. And it was that NATO allies are going to buy weapons from the United States.
10:52And then in turn, those countries are going to supply Ukraine with arms. What do you make of that plan?
10:59Well, it's a plan that first of all, the NATO countries and specifically a lot of the European
11:05allies have to agree to. And where we're seeing mixed messages coming out of Europe at the moment,
11:12and there is a little bit of consensus. But it's clear that Europe's response to the initiative is
11:18far from uniformed so far, with each country weighing their own defense priorities and resources. So for
11:25example, we've seen some media reports that France and Italy are not unlikely that are actually unlikely to be
11:32joining the initiative. And France wants to prioritize its own defense industry, which makes sense.
11:38Italy has also cited funding issues reportedly and is supporting Ukraine in other ways, for example, providing air
11:44defense systems. The Czech Republic has also reportedly opted out. So you know, a lot of these countries will be weighing their options. I don't think anyone is going to come out
11:55today and say that this is their decision. There are countries that are likely to support this
12:01initiative. For example, Germany, the UK, Canada, the Netherlands, several Nordic countries, they're leaning toward backing the plan.
12:09But all of the details are are still very much under discussion.
12:13And so then my final question to you is you always tell us what signposts to look out for next.
12:20Is the next signpost between 50 days from Monday and beyond for Russia to come to the table for Russia,
12:28us to see if Russia makes a deal with Ukraine? What specifically are you looking out for next?
12:35Well, it's inevitable that Russia is going to continue its military efforts in eastern Ukraine and maintain
12:40attacks on the Ukrainian infrastructure. But in terms of a broader escalation in response,
12:45for example, to this announcement from Washington, I think that's probably unlikely for the time being.
12:51But I would not expect over the near term any major concessions or meaningful shifts from Vladimir Putin
12:58towards a ceasefire. So instead, they will probably continue to keep some sort of a diplomatic channel open,
13:04hoping that I think the best case scenario for Moscow is that President Trump will lose focus on Ukraine,
13:10he will get distracted with something else somewhere else and essentially drop the ball.
13:15So I think that is the signpost that Russia is hoping for and crossing its fingers for.
13:21In terms of the Ukrainians, they're probably going to hope that they can deepen cooperation with the US,
13:27deepen the ties, deepen conversations also. Very different from what we saw in the Oval Office
13:33between President Trump and President Zelensky that you and I discussed. I think now we're seeing
13:38something drastically different. There will be a new ambassador coming to Washington from Ukraine
13:43soon. So with all of these changes, I think that the signpost will be whether or not this momentum
13:50between Kyiv and Washington can be sustained, if not deepened. And at the same time, seeing what happens
13:58on the other side with with the Russian side, because I'm not necessarily in this case watching the
14:05battlefield developments as closely for signposts per se, I think the summer will be quite stable.
14:11They will continue fighting, of course, because now is the season to fight. But it's really politics
14:17and diplomacy and in some cases lack thereof. That is going to potentially make the difference.
14:22So let's see what happens with the the plan that was proposed by President Trump to NATO allies.
14:29Let's see if the Europeans actually commit to this, which countries do commit and what that looks like
14:35and what that timeline looks like, because it's one thing to commit to delivering weapons or buying weapons
14:40for Ukraine. But it's a whole other conversation in terms of how long that's going to take
14:46in terms of practical steps. So all of the above, I think, will be important signposts and just watching
14:52closely how this tone in Washington develops and whether we see any shifts, because I would not rule
14:59out that you and I will be sitting here, Brittany, in a few weeks time and potentially seeing something
15:05very, very different in Washington in terms of the tone and the stance, because we've been there before
15:10and we've seen this happen before. So I guess your guess is as good as mine, but I'm going to be
15:15watching words and listening to words very carefully. And then I know that I said that was my last
15:21question, but your response just prompted another one. Back in that infamous White House meeting between
15:28Zelensky and Trump, President Trump famously said to Zelensky, you don't have the cards. As of right now,
15:34we're talking a lot about the United States. Does the United States hold all of the cards in this
15:38conflict? Who holds the most here, do you think? Well, for different reasons, I would say that
15:46probably Russia and the United States hold the biggest amount and in terms of the weight that
15:55these cards carry. That's one thing. But there's also, of course, Ukraine, because it is, after all,
16:01a war between Russia and Ukraine, and it's much closer to Europe than it is to the United States.
16:08So of course, here, Europe matters a great deal as well. It matters in terms of how much Europe is
16:15going to be able to get involved even more hands on in terms of supporting Ukraine. But for the time
16:22being, I think in terms of the cards, yes, of course, the US matters a great deal. A lot of countries,
16:29including European countries, look to the United States, and oftentimes, they echo or try to emulate
16:37what the US does. So in many ways, the US here is also going to be seen as one of the biggest
16:42decision makers in terms of diplomacy. But Russia, after all, matters probably to me the most, because
16:50in the end, it's going to have to be Russia that decides if and when they're going to come to the table
16:56with something substantial. So right now, they're making more gains than Ukraine is able to,
17:01in terms of territorial gains on the battlefield. They are, after all, the ones who started the
17:08full scale invasion, who started the war against its neighbor against Ukraine. So in that respect,
17:14of course, Russia still matters the most. We can't wait, and we should not be waiting, and no one should,
17:20including Vladimir Putin, for Ukraine to capitulate. So in that respect, if that is what the Vladimir Putin
17:28regime is hoping for, that one day President Zelensky will wake up and the Ukrainian people
17:33will capitulate, I don't think that is going to happen anytime soon. There may be some concessions
17:39here and there, but in terms of what those concessions look like, even there, I think Russia
17:44matters a lot more, because no matter what Ukraine gives to them, the sad reality is that even if they
17:51say yes to some of the concessions and some of the pressures from the Russian side, the biggest risk
17:58is that Vladimir Putin, given his track record, will always want more. Well, there is certainly
18:04a lot to look out for, and I'm going to leave it there. But until next time, Tintin Japaritse,
18:08thank you so much for joining me. I always learn so much from our conversations.
18:12Tintin Japaritse, thank you so much for having me back.
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