Will Trump's Threat Of 'Severe' Tariffs On Russia Make Putin Reach Peace Deal With Ukraine?

Forbes Breaking News

Retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, senior director of the Center on Cyber and Technology Innovation at the FDD, joined "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss President Trump's threat to impose "severe" tariffs on Russia if it refuses to reach a peace deal with Ukraine in 50 days.

Transcript

00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now

00:07is retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, a senior director at the Foundation for Defense of

00:12Democracies. Thank you so much for joining me. Thank you for having me. I want to talk about

00:18the latest in the war between Russia and Ukraine because there were a few announcements on Monday

00:22that I would love to dive into. First, President Trump announced that he threatened Russia with

00:28what he called very severe tariffs at about 100 percent if a peace deal with Ukraine isn't

00:34reached in the next 50 days. He also threatened secondary tariffs. And U.S. Ambassador to NATO,

00:40Matt Whitaker, reportedly told CNN that the secondary tariffs are, quote, sanctions on countries that are

00:45buying the oil from Russia. What do you make of these sanctions and these secondary tariffs?

00:50So, you know, I am excited. You know, this is one of the areas I've been recommending is that we have

00:57to get stronger on holding Vladimir Putin and Russia accountable for what they do. It's not

01:02enough just to swat missiles away and things like that. We've really got to put pressure on Putin

01:07so he comes to the table. President Trump gave Vladimir Putin six months, six months of runway to

01:16cease his military operations, come to the peace talks table, and enter into legitimate consensual

01:24talks with Zelensky. President Trump had previously done a maximum pressure campaign on Zelensky,

01:30brought him in, frankly, almost, I think, too much pressure. But in any case, he brought him to the

01:34table and he gave President Putin attempt after, you know, week after week after week of room to get

01:42this done. And in fact, President Putin would come out of these phone calls to President Trump

01:47and order up a massive drone or cruise missile attack on Ukraine. So I think President Trump

01:53showed maximum patience on this. And now he's come in with these economics actions, which if executed,

02:00and I say if executed because they haven't occurred yet, if executed, would bring significant pressure

02:05on Russia. Let's talk about just how significant that pressure would be because these sanctions,

02:12the secondary sanctions, at least, would go on, the secondary tariffs, rather, would go on countries

02:17that are buying Russian oil, like China, like India. Is that enough for them to say, you know

02:24what, hold up, I don't want to buy oil from Russia any longer? And will, in turn, Russia feel that squeeze?

02:32Short answer, yes, secondary sanctions on the Chinese and Indian. And I think in the end,

02:37it would be on the companies that do, you know, the ports, the refineries, the shipping companies

02:43that deal with the Russian shadow fleet of oil and natural gas deliverers. I think sanctions or

02:52tariffs on those companies would have a significant impact. I'm not, again, the president kind of

02:58mixed metaphors, so to speak, on sanctions and tariffs a little bit. We'll have to see what really

03:03plays out. But if you do go after those, you'll impact. And here's why. That GDP, that fossil fuel

03:13trade is what funds more than 40% of Russian GDP. I mean, it is really a big part, or at least their

03:21imports and exports, in this case, exports. It's a really big part of their economy. If you can begin

03:27to cut back on that, really cut back on it, by going after China and India and their role in this,

03:34what you're going to do is force really hard decisions for President Putin. Putin will have

03:39to decide, how do I take my shrinking government funds, because my GDP is shrinking, my exports are

03:47shrinking, and how do I apply them to my federal budget? Because his budget is 40% defense and 60%

03:55kind of payments to the base. That 40% that's defense, you know, that's like, we only spend 12%

04:01on defense. I mean, that's a significant amount. That's how he funds the war. So he'll have a choice.

04:06Do I fund the war, or do I fund kind of the payments to my base? That's a hard choice for

04:11Vladimir Putin. That's where Donald Trump can put him if he decides to impose these. I wish it wasn't

04:1650 days from now. I wish it was two days from now. I wish this was like when he told Iran, I might

04:21bomb within the next 12 days, or two weeks. And then he did it two days later. You know,

04:26I wish he'd bring these now. But in any case, this is how you pressure Russia and Vladimir Putin.

04:32And we know in a lot of situation, money does talk. Do you think in this situation,

04:37money will talk in 50 days, either a peace deal is reached, or President Putin feels that squeeze

04:44and will get to the negotiating table, and perhaps get there in good faith? Or is that just being naive,

04:49thinking that Putin, economic squeeze or not, will go to the table in good faith?

04:55Well, if I were a Ukrainian, I think the next 45 days are going to involve a lot of drones and

04:59cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. What he does with about a week to go, I'm not sure.

05:05Putin's a cagey leader. He knows how to rope a dope. I imagine with about a week to go,

05:11he'll start to pretend that he's interested in talks. I don't think that gets you there. Now,

05:15look, President Trump didn't fall for this with the Iranians. He went right in on them. So maybe

05:21he'll do the same with Putin. He has set a standard with his attacks on Fordow in Iran that says,

05:28I'll take action when I want to take action. And I've warned you that I might. So he's warned him

05:33that he might. I hope he still wants to take it 50 days from now. And I hope he does it.

05:37And we've seen President Trump threaten our allies with tariffs. Now you're seeing him threatening

05:44Russia with very severe tariffs here. And he said trade is great for settling wars. Do you agree in

05:51this instance? So I agree that sanctions or some kind of tariffs on the secondary suppliers, China and

05:58India matters. Why? Because they trade with the United States. Russia is different. We have very little

06:04trade with Russia. So 100% tariffs on not much doesn't lead to much pressure. So uniquely in this

06:12case, if you told me you were going to tariff North Korea or Iran or Russia, I don't think it has a big

06:20impact. If you're going to tariff China or India, it has a big impact. So the impact here is based on

06:27going after the secondary, the secondary actors on the sanctions.

06:34And you touched on this earlier in the conversation about this flip flop almost in President Trump and his

06:39feelings towards Zelensky and Putin. Because at the end of February, we all remember that really explosive

06:45White House meeting between Vice President J.D. Vance, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and

06:50President Trump, where President Trump was just really letting Zelensky have it. And he was almost nicer in

06:57his words about Vladimir Putin. Now it's switched. Now Trump is saying, you know what, I am really

07:03angry with Putin right now. He's thought he's said out loud, kind of ruminated, is Putin leading me on

07:09here? What do you think of President Trump's in the past couple of months almost flip flop on Putin

07:14and him publicly calling Putin out? Well, you know, I'll be more generous than flip. I mean,

07:21it is a flip flop. But a more generous interpretation would be that his his feelings have evolved. His

07:27analysis has evolved. His assessment has evolved as Putin has acted. And Putin has acted in bad faith

07:34for four or five months. Now, you can say, look, that was a very predictable thing from Vladimir Putin.

07:40He's a bad faith actor and kind of a stone cold killer for the last 25 years. Why would we have thought

07:46things would change? But in any case, President Trump gave him more than enough time. This this action,

07:54what President Trump did today was the absolute logical outcome of President Putin's noncompliance

08:03and his kind of nasty behavior towards President Trump, President Zelensky and the people of Ukraine.

08:10And I want to move on to another announcement from President Trump. He said that NATO was going to

08:16buy NATO allies rather going to buy billions of dollars worth of weapons from the United States

08:22and then give them to Ukraine. What do you make of that announcement?

08:27So this one was another it's good news, but I have to put it in some context, which is there's

08:33another bit of mixed metaphor here where he described it one way and Secretary General Ruta,

08:38Mark Ruta of NATO Secretary General described it another. President Trump made it sound like the

08:44Europeans would come by system, you know, the United States would give systems to Europe,

08:51you know, maybe Patriot missiles, Patriot batteries, and then the Europeans would buy them,

08:55you know, buy replacements for the United States. So it's a weird kind of presidential drawdown

08:59authority where we send stuff directly to Ukraine, where we send stuff directly to Ukraine and the

09:05Europeans replace it. Secretary General Ruta described something slightly different where he said

09:12the Europeans would buy things from the United States, you know, from like, I assume our defensive

09:17industrial base, and in the meantime, provide the equivalent stuff to the Ukrainians. In either case,

09:23good news for Ukraine, they get Patriot missiles or batteries pretty quick. The question of how you do

09:29it, whether it comes from the United, who has the gaping, the slight hole in their system where

09:34they've given something up and they're waiting for it to be reimbursed. That's what's up in the air.

09:39I suspect it'll be mostly the second case, where the Europeans are sending their equipment, and then

09:46ordering replacements for the United States, and we're kind of prioritizing delivery to them.

09:51And either way, regardless of which way it's happening, you're saying it's good news for Ukraine.

09:56But either way that you described it, it sounds a little bit of a roundabout system. Why is that?

10:03Well, it's a roundabout. That's a great, great question. It's a roundabout system because

10:08the group part of the world that wants to give Ukraine materials now, now, now, Europe has no

10:16defense industrial base to build those systems and deliver them. And the country that does build and

10:20deliver systems and has delivered a lot to Ukraine and said, hey, that's enough by us. So you have this,

10:25you know, this dichotomy where the country that's in a position to give now, now, now or build now,

10:31now, now is not that interested in giving at this moment. Look, I hope over time, President Trump

10:37continues to refine his opinion of Ukraine and eventually goes back to either, you know,

10:43preferential loans or grant programs to directly deliver U.S. weapons. But for now,

10:49the Europeans buying those weapons from us and then delivering their own is fine by me.

10:55And what are you looking out for, especially in the next 50 days? Because that's, that's a firm

11:01deadline we have. As of now, that's a firm deadline of what we have now of President Trump saying,

11:07hey, Russia, either peace deal in the next 50 days, or we are going to tariff you. Do you think

11:13that, A, is a serious threat? B, Russia will actually respond? I mean, what are you looking

11:19out for? I know you said the week before, that's when you're really going to see some action. But

11:24what other signposts are you keeping your eye out on? You know, aspirationally, I can hope that you

11:29see a decreasing of Russian attacks, either drone, Shahid drone, or cruise and ballistic missile.

11:39Realistically, I don't think you'll see that. But if you were to see that,

11:42that would be an indication. If you were to see the Russians stop their, you know, their,

11:46their tactical offensives and very in micro in small areas where they gain a square kilometer

11:52here or there every couple of weeks, that would be a signal. I don't think we're going to see either

11:57of those. I think Russia will continue for the net, you know, for the next four to five weeks minimum,

12:02you know, their offensive campaigning to see if they can get a breakthrough. Because in the end,

12:06that's truly what Vladimir Putin wants, a breakthrough on the sale on the lines, a salient that he can

12:11penetrate and get a significant, more significant territorial gains from Ukraine and place Kiev or

12:19Odessa at risk. You know, those are the two major Ukrainian cities. I don't think that's likely. I

12:25don't think I've told you before, I work closely with the Ukrainians and that they're not going to

12:29lose this war. I don't know that they know how to win it. I don't either. But they're not going to

12:33lose it. They're just going to lose a lot more people defending themselves. I think the actions that

12:38we heard President Trump avert to today will mean less Ukrainian casualties over time.

12:44And to that point, then, do you think today the Ukrainians are thinking after these two

12:48announcements, hey, we're a little closer to winning this war, we're a little closer to this

12:54war coming to a conclusion? What exactly are they thinking? I think they do probably think they're a

13:00little closer to the war coming to conclusion, not winning. Look, they'd like to hear a third line

13:05of effort. They want to hear President Trump say, I'm willing to provide offensive weapon systems

13:10to Ukraine so they can hold Russian command and control and logistics movements at risk, deep,

13:17you know, deep inside Ukrainian, Russian-occupied Ukraine, or even in Russia itself. And the weapon

13:24system for that is called the ATAKIMS. President Biden provided that two years ago, but put significant

13:30restrictions on it that made sure it never really worked as advertised. I, President Trump, should

13:36give the Russian, excuse me, give the Ukrainians ATAKIMS with no limitations and allow them to strike

13:43Russian military assets and maneuvering and, you know, consolidated assets before they maneuver,

13:49you know, deep in Russian-held Ukraine or in Russia. And to me, if he did that, that is where Ukraine

13:58starts to think they can win. Now, again, I don't think there's a path for them to actually win,

14:03but they'll be much more optimistic based on that. Well, there is certainly a lot to look out for.

14:08And per usual, I always appreciate your expertise and your insight here. Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery,

14:13thank you so much for joining me. You're welcome back anytime. Thank you for having me.

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