Analyzing All-Star Game Home Run Odds: Ohtani and Judge's Chances

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00:00Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, both plus 560,

00:03our home run leader in Cal Raleigh at plus 630.

00:06The RS player to hit a home run in their first plate appearance.

00:11You can nearly double that price.

00:13Aaron Judge, 11-1.

00:15Big dumper, 12-1.

00:17Ohtani, 12-1.

00:19Will they get a second appearance?

00:21Probably.

00:22And is that first plate appearance for those guys

00:24that are batting 1, 2, 3, or 4

00:26going to be very difficult against Paul Skeens and Tarek Skubal, respectively?

00:31No doubt.

00:32But you're also increasing your odds

00:34for what might be their only plate appearance, even if they see two.

00:39Yeah, no, and again, it makes it tough.

00:41But you're right.

00:41Like, hey, Ohtani, we've seen him lead off a game with a home run.

00:44Yeah, against Nick Martinez.

00:46I mean, it's a little bit tougher to go up against and say,

00:48boy, we really want to get after Tarek Skubal and Paul Skeens

00:50here to start the game,

00:51knowing how amped up they're going to be anyway at this point.

00:54So it's interesting, too, because what's the difference?

00:58Let's just say Shoya Ohtani to hit a home run in the game

01:00and in his first at-bat.

01:02Like, is there a market advantage in that?

01:04Like, what is the price point?

01:05Double and then some.

01:07Plus 560 DRS just to hit a home run.

01:10And the first at-bat, which will be the leadoff

01:12for the National League more than likely against Tarek Skubal,

01:15is 12-1.

01:18You know what?

01:18I still would take it because I think Ohtani's going to –

01:20the superstars are going to get two at-bats.

01:23So I actually would rather take my chances.

01:25Now, would it suck if he had a home run first?

01:27Like, a little bit, but you still cashed in a 5-1 ticket.

01:30You can't be all that upset by doing that.

01:32So I probably would still take on those guys, the two at-bats,

01:35because, again, Skubal and Skeens are thought to be the best two pitchers

01:37in baseball right now.

01:39Whatever you get, you'll take that and be like,

01:41hey, all right, let's move on.

01:43And not saying that the guy that's coming in second,

01:45that's going to be any like, hey, slouch at this point.

01:47He's going to be a really good pitcher.

01:48But I'd take the two over the one, even if the price point for the one

01:52is double of what those two-plate appearances would be, though.

01:55I'd still go with the two-plate appearances.

01:57No doubt about it, right?

01:59And the reason that price is double is because in that first A-B,

02:03they are probably seeing Skubal and or Skeens for that lone time.

02:07So then Skeens and Skubal are going to make a statement

02:09against the best of the best.

02:11Our producer extraordinaire did track this down.

02:13Every starter last year in the 2024 Midsummer Classic had at least two A-Bs.

02:19Otani did homer in his second at-bat against Tanner Houck of the Boston Red Sox.

02:25So, yes, all to be said, it is probably worth it to take the lower price,

02:31but knowing you're not going to be trying to hit a homer

02:33against Tarek Skubal and Paul Skeens.

02:36The odds are in the favor.

02:38What?

02:39I mean, how did Tanner Houck get in the All-Star game?

02:42We see the difference there?

02:43We proved our own point.

02:44You get an A-list starter, and then you got Tanner Houck coming in.

02:48Give me a shot of Tanner Houck.

02:49I like that.

02:50For sure.

02:51And it could be somebody who is having one great season, five great starts,

02:55and they get a nod to the All-Star game.

02:58DRS, it also tracks with the idea that to get a hit or even a home run

03:02off Skubal or Skeens in the opening frame is going to be tough.

03:06You heard Craig Mish.

03:07Four combined Ks between the two, plus 260.

03:10Three combined strikeouts between Skubal and Skeens in their appearance

03:14is minus 150.

03:16To both go three up, three down.

03:19Retire the side in order in their appearances in the first, plus 380.

03:24A shorter price for that to be the case than Otani to hit a home run

03:27or Judge to hit a home run, so on and so forth.

03:30Yeah, I don't think that's going to happen, but I do that.

03:32Like, the nerf fee is going to be high.

03:34I think it was a minus 180 price.

03:35Now, you get two unbelievable pitchers, but six unbelievable automatic batters

03:39that will be up there.

03:40I do think we get a clean first inning, but I don't think we get a six up, six down.

03:44Somebody's getting a base hit.

03:46Somebody might even threaten, but I think overall,

03:48I don't think any one of these pitchers is going to give up a run in the first.

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