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00:00will be will he get the maximum? I think the answer to that is definitely no. And everyone's

00:06talking about the 10-year maximum or even potential 20 years if Judge Subramanian runs

00:11then consecutively. But we know that no one gets the max. And what really matters here are the

00:16federal sentencing guidelines. And really, we're talking about math here. So in the 1980s,

00:24Congress commissioned a sentencing commission because Congress thought that there were these

00:29unwarranted sentencing disparities. And judges in different parts of the country, different

00:34districts were imposing dramatically different sentences. So what they did was create the

00:40sentencing guidelines, which really starts with a base offense level, and then it adds numbers to

00:47get to a sentencing range. And up until about 20 years ago, those guideline ranges were mandatory.

00:53That means judges couldn't deviate from them. In 2005, the Supreme Court decided a really

00:59important case, United States v. Booker. And the justices said, well, the guidelines are now only

01:04advisory. But Andrew, a lot of judges stay within those guidelines. That's why that is the most

01:10important part of any sentencing hearing. So you can throw those maxes out the window. What matters

01:16is the sentencing guidelines, especially for a judge like Judge Subramanian, who is by all accounts a good

01:21judge, but he doesn't have much, if any, criminal experience. He has a civil background. So I can't

01:26see someone like him deviating significantly from the guidelines. So in this particular case,

01:32it seems like the parties are calculating the guidelines differently, which is going to lead

01:36to a dramatically different set of ranges, one by the defense and one by the prosecution. And a third one

01:43will be calculated by the court itself, and that's U.S. probation.

01:46So Neema, I have to ask this. Were you surprised that he was still remanded back into custody, that he

01:55did not get out pending sentencing, or not? I think some people were surprised by that. Although you and

02:04I discussed when he was first indicted and brought into custody, that massive bail package his lawyers

02:12offered that was repeatedly denied by several different judges here. So maybe that was one of

02:18the same? I think that was part of the consideration. I can tell you, Andrew, as you know, I did predict

02:24the verdict more or less. I did not predict the judge's decision. I thought after Combs was only

02:31convicted of prostitution that he would be released on bail, because the prostitution counts, counts three

02:37and five, the Man Act, were by far and away the least serious of the charges. It's rarely charged by

02:44itself. It's usually a throw in. And if it is charged prostitution, whether it's a state case or a federal

02:50case, no one gets denied bail solely on prostitution. And not only did Combs receive not guilty verdicts on

02:59the racketeering and sex trafficking, it was across the board. And very quick, the jury came back

03:05really on the second full day of deliberation on the sex trafficking counts, not guilty. So that

03:11means there's no force, no fraud, no coercion. And even though some jurors were hung on the

03:15racketeering, the next morning, very early, they came back not guilty on that. So it was essentially

03:21a clean sweep by Combs. So that happened in the morning. And the judge said he was going to consider

03:27the bail issue that afternoon at 5pm. Well, the party submitted letter briefs right away. And it was

03:33very fascinating what the government did. They didn't just talk about the risk of flight or

03:36danger, which you and I have talked about many times that determines whether someone's going to

03:41be detained pending trial. They started to calculate those sentencing guidelines. And it was really

03:47fascinating what they did. They added three very important enhancements that took Combs from a 14,

03:55which was base defense level, which really would put him at the 15 to 21 month range, up to a 24.

04:02And the reason that number matters is that puts them at 51 to 63 months, so dramatically different.

04:11And they cited three key provisions, multiple victims, because there's six or more victims that

04:16have a five level enhancement, that Combs was a leader or organizer, that was a three level enhancement.

04:22And the fact that he obstructed justice by trying to bribe hotel security for that video,

04:27and potentially dissuade or change victim Jane's testimony, that was a two level enhancement. So

04:34those 10 extra levels are going to potentially result in an additional three years in prison for

04:41Sean Diddy Combs.

04:42You know, aside from all of the facts of the case, I think it's somewhat fascinating, maybe our viewers

04:48agree, and this is somewhat niche and arcane, that there is some type of numerical score.

04:54When judges take this into account, you mentioned these enhancements or even mitigating factors,

05:00aggravating factors about sentencing guidelines. So I think maybe our viewers, I myself, didn't

05:06necessarily know that. Lastly, Nima, have we heard from any of the jurors?

05:11We have heard from an alternate juror that said that he agreed with the jury verdict. I expect more

05:17to start coming out on the cable news talk short circuit. Maybe some will even be writing books

05:24about it. We know this is probably the biggest case in recent memory, especially the fact that it

05:29was a not guilty. I'm guessing many viewers who are watching right now have very strong views about

05:35this case, like they do with gender violence and Me Too in general. So I think that October 3rd sentencing

05:41date is going to really ruffle a lot of feathers. Some people will be very happy that Combs is sent

05:49away for quite some time. I think Judge Supermanian may do that. Other people will be very unhappy

05:54potentially because they think this is someone who's being railroaded, even though he was found

05:59not guilty. And whether it's gender or race issues that come into it, Sean Combs really is a polarizing

06:06figure right now, notwithstanding this verdict. So that date, October 3rd, mark it in your calendars.

06:12It's not just Mean Girls Day. It's not just my wife's birthday. It is going to be the day that

06:16everyone is going to watch to really see what happens to Sean Diddy Combs, because I don't think

06:21even his defense lawyers anticipated the very real possibility that he's going to be detained

06:25and sentenced to significant time. Yeah, but you have to see, I mean, I remember they were quite

06:30jubilant, quite celebratory after the verdicts came down last week. We'll see whether or not they can

06:35keep their client out of jail for as long as you were predicting there. Of course, he's been in jail

06:41since he was taken into custody last September, and he's still in jail tonight. Nima, good to see

06:45you. Thanks so much. Thanks, Andrew Tuckson. I'll make my prediction before sentencing. All right.

06:51Thanks. Okay. In the meantime here, we do want to take yet another quick commercial break.

06:56We are nearing the top of a new hour very soon here. When we come back, we'll be going back into

07:01some of these international headlines. All playing out today at the State Department press briefing

07:07there, led by the State Department spokesperson, Tanny Bruce, taking questions from reporters on a

07:13whole host of topics. You'll see it when we come back.

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