Why the June jobs report could catch the market off guard

The June jobs report is out Thursday - here's what to expect.

Transcript

00:00I just want to get your expectations for the June jobs report, which comes out on Thursday.

00:06Yeah, so I'm really excited that that's coming out on Thursday, so that way we can get that put behind us for the long weekend.

00:13And I'm expecting that we're going to see a little bit of the same as what we have been,

00:17which is continued softening in terms of the headline payrolls number.

00:22So I'm expecting to see a net increase in payrolls of around $125,000.

00:27So maybe I'm being a little conservative compared to the consensus.

00:31The unemployment rate is one where the labor force has been shrinking a little bit.

00:36We know that some of the immigration crackdown has been affecting that,

00:40and just the domestic labor force pool hasn't been growing quite as quickly as it has in years past.

00:47And so I think that unemployment rate, it's a bit of a wild card,

00:50but we could actually see that just stay steady at around 4.2%.

00:54Overall, my guess is it's going to really paint this picture of the Fed being able to cut rates again,

01:03whether it's July or September, I'm sure we can talk about that,

01:06but being able to as opposed to being forced to cut because of labor market softness.

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