Markets are betting on a summer rate cut, but the data tells a different story.
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00:00So how this affects the rate, the Fed rate timeline is I think, you know, you know, you can look at it both ways.
00:05I personally don't think the Fed is going to cut this summer.
00:08OK, and I don't think you have to.
00:10If the economy continues to be strong and show resilience, it's OK for it to slow down a little bit because that's naturally what you're going to do when you have a heated economy is you'll see certain slowdowns.
00:22There's a difference between a slowdown and heading trending in a way that's going into a recession.
00:26So I think this buys the Fed more time and I only expect one rate cut this year and that probably going to come in a September time period.
00:35And that could cause some volatility as well, too, because I know the administration wants to see cuts and they'll probably call the Fed out on it.
00:42I think the Fed has proven they'll stick to their guns and cut when they feel like the data supports cutting.
00:47So we only expect one rate cut this year.