00:00The unemployment rate is expected to take slightly higher to 4.3% from 4.2%.
00:05What would that number need to look like for a July rate cut to be in play?
00:114.4% would definitely do it, and that would be statistically outside of the norm in terms of a one-month increase.
00:20And it's not impossible.
00:21So if you look at the weekly jobless claims, for the first quarter,
00:25they average between, call it, 205,000 and 210,000 weekly jobless claims.
00:30So that's new people coming on and getting unemployment for the first time.
00:34That has gone up to between 235,000 and 245,000.
00:37So that's a significant increase.
00:39At some point in time, that's going to show up in both the non-farm payroll number,
00:44that jolts report, and certainly that unemployment rate.
00:47So if we saw it tick up to 4.4%, I think that would move the chances of the Fed cutting at the July meeting.
00:53From what right now stands at about a 25% chance to north of a 50% chance.
00:58We already have heard from three of the voters that they're ready to go in July.
01:03So I think you get a sloppy report on Thursday,
01:05you likely see the Fed shifting gears a bit and making it a 50-50 proposition.
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