Why the economy may defy recession predictions — for now - video Dailymotion

With 'recession' headlines swirling, history shows that economic downturns are notoriously difficult to predict.

Transcript

00:00People were forecasting a recession in 2021 too due to the pandemic and due to other factors

00:06and it didn't take place.

00:08We had so much stimulus coming into the market that it never happened.

00:11So I think the joke is that 10 out of the last 12 recessions have been predicted and

00:17there are only two.

00:18So take it with a grain of salt when people predict economic downturns and recessions

00:24and things of that sort.

00:25We're going to get one eventually.

00:27But in the next 12 months, I think that's highly uncertain right now.

00:30The economy is still pretty strong.

00:32I think the Fed not cutting interest rates fast enough would be one.

00:36I think that geopolitical uncertainty around the world would be two.

00:41And I think the president's policies, which are not conducive to economic growth right

00:47now, whether it's tariffs, whether it's a sharp reduction in governmental spending,

00:53all those kind of things, those reduce economic growth.

00:55So if you combine all those things together and uncertainties, you know, the whole black

00:59swan effect, things we're not looking for that are significant that we don't know really

01:04when it's going to occur.

01:05You put all those things together, they could all cause a recession.

01:08But I would be really surprised if it happens in the next six months.

01:12It's probably a nine to 30 month event, something like that, when we'll get a next recession.

01:19We're really overdue for one though.

01:21So investors should be prepared for some hard times to come.