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00:00He's going to have a big opponent, a good opponent.

00:03Who's going to win? He's going to be history, I think.

00:06Should Massey and other Republicans unhappy with this bill be thinking twice about voting for it?

00:12Should they worry about that threat, do you think?

00:16I actually have a lot of respect for Republicans who have their own individual soul

00:22and who may speak their actual truth.

00:25I mean, I think that's true for all politicians,

00:27and I think most Americans would agree with the fact that that's what they don't like about politics,

00:32is that people aren't true to themselves.

00:34And so I look at somebody like Thomas Massey and I say,

00:37hey, if you're against this, credit to you for standing up to somebody as powerful as Donald Trump.

00:43He doesn't have a great track record, meaning Trump, in primarying some people.

00:48He has not chosen the best of candidates.

00:50And by the way, Elon Musk has said that he's going to support Thomas Massey's campaign with money.

00:57And he may start his own party called America, which would definitely splinter the Republican Party.

01:03So it's not just Thomas Massey.

01:06We should be clear that there's Don Bacon.

01:08There's Chip Roy.

01:10There's Andy Harris.

01:12There's David Valadeo.

01:14I mean, it only takes three Republicans to have this not pass the House.

01:19Jamal, what is, assuming this does end up passing the House,

01:24what is the Democratic strategy to counter this bill?

01:28And are they doing enough right now?

01:30The Democrats have turned this bill into the bitterest of pills, right?

01:34Each one of these Republicans who votes for this is in a marginal district, a competitive district,

01:38has had to swallow something they did not know that's going to be as hard to get down as this bill.

01:44Look at what Hakeem Jeffries has been doing.

01:46He started this off with that sit-in out in the House steps, 12 hours a plus on the sit-in.

01:52Then he had a speech.

01:53Then he's been doing content creators.

01:54The Democrats have been driving this message about tax cuts for the rich,

01:58taking corporate taxes down to 21 percent from 35 percent,

02:02and then cutting Medicaid for average, everyday Americans.

02:06The Democrats are the ones who made that argument.

02:08So I think the Democrats have done what it is their job is now.

02:11And then, you know, you saw in the Senate they extended this out.

02:13But I've got to tell you, Lisa Murkowski, what an anti-profile encourage, right?

02:19For someone to say, I voted for this, but I want it to fail, out loud.

02:23She said that out loud on national television.

02:24She wants the House to stop it.

02:27I think we are looking for Republicans who can stand up,

02:31we're looking for all politicians, who can stand up and then say,

02:33here's what I believe.

02:34I didn't think it was a good bill.

02:36I could have gotten something out of it, but I didn't do it because it wasn't what was right for the country.

02:39If she didn't do that, I just have no stomach at all for the way she's handling this.

02:43I think she wants the House to change it and send it back.

02:47But I hear your point there.

02:48Gretchen, I want to listen to something else that Senator Murkowski said after casting her vote.

02:52We were operating under a timeline that was basically an artificial timeline.

03:07And I think rather than taking the deliberative approach to good legislating,

03:20we rushed to get a product out.

03:24And Gretchen, I'll note that you've worked with her to get legislation passed, full disclosure there.

03:31But Murkowski could have stopped that artificial timeline, that lack of deliberation, that rush product with her vote.

03:38Should she have?

03:39Yeah, I mean, look, she was on the fence.

03:45And I think this will open up a huge debate about whether or not you should serve only the interests of the state that you represent or the entire nation.

03:54Look, she got a lot of concessions for people in Alaska that you mentioned at the top of the show.

04:00But is that necessarily good for somebody in Kentucky or somebody in Connecticut?

04:05I think she's trying to play both sides of the fence here.

04:08I also would add, though, that I don't think all the pressure should be on people who are moderates like Lisa Murkowski or Susan Collins,

04:16because there's a ton of other people, Republicans in the Senate, who didn't have the courage at all to say anything back to Donald Trump.

04:25And by the way, this isn't just about Donald Trump.

04:28The idea that this bill is even named big flies in the face of what Republicans believe in.

04:35And this is increasing this version, the national debt, by an additional $1 trillion.

04:41This is not Republican speak.

04:44So I don't believe all the pressure should just be on Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins all the time, who might decide to cross the aisle.

04:50There should be other Republicans in the Senate that would have the courage to say what Republican mandates have been for a very long time,

04:59which is reducing the deficit and reduce spending.

05:02Jamal, what do you think?

05:04Oh, I think, again, listen, I worked for a United States senator a couple decades ago who had to take a really tough war vote and didn't like it at all.

05:12But he didn't go around saying, oh, I took the vote and maybe I didn't like it.

05:16I mean, later you can say you took the vote.

05:20You got to take the good part with the bad part of the bill.

05:23You don't get to have it both ways.

05:25That is the problem with what Lisa Murkowski is up to.

05:27And I just think I can't imagine there are going to be a lot of people in Alaska who have a lot of respect for someone who says,

05:34I did it for you, but I didn't want it.

05:36I voted yes, but I hope no.

05:37Your first point, this will damage Trump's blue collar MAGA brand.

05:45Are you sure?

05:46How will that happen?

05:48Oh, you can never say never.

05:51I mean, and of course, the age of disinformation and the age of propaganda and social media means there isn't necessarily a straight line from doing something and being held accountable for doing it.

06:04But the two biggest parallels with this big, beautiful bill in terms of just the unpopularity of going for Medicaid and food stamps.

06:15But Medicaid, half of Medicaid recipients voted for Trump, half.

06:19The biggest parallel is George W. Bush in 2005, pivoting to a plan to privatize Social Security, which caused an enormous boomerang effect, blowback, and contributed to the big Republican midterm defeat the next year in 2006.

06:38And then, of course, again, Trump in his first term, trying to abolish Obamacare, which included the Medicaid pensions, defeated by one vote, John McCain, the late John McCain being that key vote.

06:52And that fed into the reaction against Trump in his 2018 midterms.

06:59Difference here is that this has been passed.

07:03Now, you believe, though, exactly, John McCain had stopped it the last time.

07:09You believe, though, that the economics of this bill are also pretty simple in terms of what it will do.

07:14Trump is robbing the poor to pay to the rich.

07:16Even so, do you believe that Republicans will actually be punished for that, given the timeline?

07:23And I do want to say, and you know because you've heard these arguments, right, that economists say that this will actually create a boon for the American economy and that it will, and here's that word again, trickle down to Americans of all incomes.

07:36So, we're in a slightly different environment than we were in 2017, when he had his big tax cut, which did generate higher growth, including wage growth.

07:49Not enough wage growth to stop a defeat in midterms, by the way, in 2018.

07:53But we're in a very different post-COVID world of higher interest rates, of supply chain, continual concerns about supply chain flows, and therefore inbuilt inflation.

08:06And, of course, we've got, you've been reporting on it, but we've got this stand-up fight between Donald Trump and the chair of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury bond markets, continually just slapping Trump down when he goes too far.

08:22Well, this is a bill that massively increases the U.S. deficit, and therefore raises the cost of borrowing.

08:29So, I'm much more skeptical of projections of a boom coming out of this bill than I think would have been merited in 2017 with his big tax cut.

08:40It's a very different world. We're living in a monetarily tight environment.

08:46Republican revolt, as we could be just hours from the House voting on Trump's massive marquee bill, a bill that just narrowly passed the Senate this morning.

08:57And tonight, House Speaker Mike Johnson has his work cut out for him.

09:01He can only afford to lose three Republicans, and it appears there are a lot more than that sitting on the fence tonight.

09:07I can't imagine they have the vote. There's no way that Johnson has the votes in the House for this.

09:13So, this whole thing is, I don't know what to call it. It's a s*** show.

09:18It's hard for me to conceive that it'll pass as is. There's some amazingly bad stuff in here.

09:24I think the founders and the 56 signers of the Declaration of Independence would be astounded that we're adding debt to our children and grandchildren who are defenseless.

09:35Debt is a curse.

09:39Republican Andy Ogles of Tennessee calling the bill a dud that guts key Trump provisions.

09:45And remember, two House Republicans already voted against the House version of this bill, including Kentucky's Thomas Massey, who is slamming the $3.3 trillion the Senate version of the bill adds to the deficit.

09:59Other Republicans are also uncomfortable with the Senate bill's deep Medicaid cuts, cuts that could leave nearly 12 million more Americans uninsured, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

10:11Now, the White House wants the House to pass the bill as is, but even Senate Republicans acknowledge that could be a challenge.

10:19Do they have the votes to pass exactly what we did? I don't know.

10:23We'll see. I mean, you know how hard it was to pass.

10:27And Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, who was the last holdout before deciding to vote for Trump's sprawling bill, even acknowledging the bill has issues and should be sent back.

10:37My hope is that the House is going to look at this and recognize that we're not there yet.

10:48Of course, Democrats are pouncing after Murkowski's remarks.

10:53I mean, my question to her is, if you really believe that, then why the hell did you vote for this bill?

10:59And tonight, Trump seeming to acknowledge this bill could ultimately be sent back to the Senate, which, according to Majority Leader Steve Scalise in the House, could collapse the entire thing.

11:14Well, they're going to ask for certain changes, probably. I don't know.

11:17I mean, I guess what would happen if that happens?

11:20You're going to have to run it fast past the Senate, so, you know, it never ends.

11:24I don't know if that's going to happen.

11:29Lauren Fox is out front, live on Capitol Hill.

11:31Lauren, what's the latest that you're learning tonight about where this is all headed?

11:37Yeah, I mean, you hear it there from every corner of the Republican Party right now.

11:42There are issues with this bill.

11:44You have moderates who don't like the steep Medicaid cuts.

11:46Representative David Valadeo over the weekend making clear that the cuts in the Senate bill are even more severe than those in the House bill and could force him to vote against it.

11:57Meanwhile, leadership is trying to make the case to their members that they need to keep their powder dry.

12:02They need to get back to Washington and they need to work through exactly what they are going to do next.

12:09Obviously, the preference of leadership would be to not change this bill in order to meet Trump's Fourth of July deadline that they have been talking about for the last several months.

12:20But that may not be possible, given all of the potential defections that they have right now.

12:26Just to walk you through the process, House Rules Committee is meeting tonight.

12:30That is the first stop for this piece of legislation.

12:33There are two members on that committee who have concerns about the bill.

12:36That wouldn't be enough to stop it from passing out of that committee.

12:40Once it gets through that hurdle, then it goes to the floor for a rule vote.

12:44The entire House of Representatives would vote on that.

12:47That could be leadership's first big challenge.

12:50That usually is an early indication that you don't have the numbers that you need if you can't pass the rule.

12:56That is a procedural vote.

12:58It may not sound that consequential, but if you are a Republican leader, that can be the canary in the coal mine signaling that you may not be where you need to be.

13:07Now, they expect members to be back in Washington tomorrow at 9 a.m.

13:11That timeline, of course, could always slide if they start to feel like they don't have the votes.

13:17You can expect that there's probably going to be a whole lot more meetings, a whole lot more gatherings in Speaker Johnson's office as he tries to hold a very carefully crafted coalition together in order to get this across the finish line over the next 48 hours.

13:31Yeah, we'll be watching them whip some votes there.

13:33Lauren Fox, thank you.

13:34Out front now, Democratic Congresswoman Madeline Dean.

13:37She is a member of the House Appropriations Committee.

13:40Congresswoman, you're hearing your colleagues across the aisle, their reservations about this.

13:45Are you holding out hope that this bill may not pass the House, given that we're also hearing from the Senate Majority Leader, John Thune, his assessment?

13:54It may be a challenge.

13:55And Lindsey Graham saying he isn't sure the votes will be there.

13:59Good to be with you, Brianna.

14:00And yes, of course, I hold out hope that Republican members of the House will do their job and recognize that there is no reason to cast a vote for this bill.

14:09I wanted to show it to you.

14:10And I have literally one question.

14:12Why would anybody vote for this bill?

14:14This is what I've been saying all week long, all weekend long.

14:18How could anybody, Democrat or Republican, vote for this bill?

14:21By the way, this is only half of the bill.

14:23We printed it out.

14:26The biggest pieces in it, taking away health care for 17 million Americans,

14:33taking 42 million Americans' food literally off their tables out of children's mouths,

14:39blowing up the deficit.

14:40I thought the Republicans were all about reducing the deficit.

14:44I want to reduce the deficit.

14:45This blows up the deficit, all in service of tax breaks for the very, very wealthiest.

14:51Also, it will cost jobs.

14:53I'm from Pennsylvania.

14:53This is going to cost tens of thousands of jobs, productivity, economic growth right in Pennsylvania.

14:59So I ask this question, why would anyone vote for this big, bad, ugly bill?

15:07You just got out of a caucus meeting with your fellow Democrats.

15:11Assuming, though, that this does make it through the House, this bill,

15:15what are you all going to do to capitalize on a political vulnerability that the polls do reveal?

15:21Did you talk about that?

15:22Well, let me let you know, Mother Nature has a funny way of dealing with all of us in a very nonpartisan way.

15:29You're going to see that an awful lot of the Democrats and Republicans are still in transit.

15:34Different kinds of weather problems getting people here, whether it's by airports, the trains, and the rest.

15:41So the caucus meeting is still ongoing.

15:43The rules meeting is still ongoing.

15:45The ranking members have completed their work in front of rules.

15:47They're now down at the caucus briefing.

15:50So we're going to fight and we're going to message.

15:52Democrats aren't always known for a clear message, but this one is mighty clear.

15:56This is a bill that will hurt every single district.

15:59It will hurt every single constituent or constituency within these districts.

16:06I don't care if you're a Democrat or a Republican.

16:09I think about it in terms of my own district.

16:11The hundreds or tens of thousands of folks who use Medicare because they are seniors, they are disabled, they are children.

16:20There are people who need these things.

16:23People will lose their health care.

16:25This administration has proven itself to be incompetent, corrupt, and cruel.

16:32This big, bad, ugly bill is full of all of that.

16:36Incompetence, corruption, and cruelty.

16:38And I guess cruelty is the point with this group.

16:41I hope and I pray and I beg my Republican members in the House to stand up, to have a spine, to look us in the eye and say,

16:50of course I can't do this to my constituents, taking health care away from them, taking food away from them, closing rural hospitals,

16:58all at the service of the very wealthy and making sure those tax cuts continue.

17:03I ask them to please vote their conscience, because when they do, their vote will be no.

17:09Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski, the crucial 50th vote on this bill.

17:13But after she said it isn't a perfect bill by any stretch, she said we're not there yet.

17:18Here's an exchange she had with NBC's Ryan Nobles.

17:20Senator Paul said that this was, that your vote was a bailout for Alaska at the expense of the rest of the country.

17:27Oh my God.

17:29That's what Senator Paul said.

17:33I said it was easy.

17:35Senator, we've got the, uh...

17:37I didn't say it, ma'am.

17:38I'm just asking for your response.

17:39My response is, I have an obligation to the people of the state of Alaska.

17:48Do I like this bill?

17:49No.

17:50Because I try to take care of Alaska's interests.

17:55I am curious what you think of some of the significant carve-outs that she secured for Alaska

18:01to get that essential vote on board, including an exemption for states with high error rates

18:08on paying out food assistance benefits.

18:11Honest to God, Brianna.

18:13I can't tell you how disappointed I am.

18:14You saw how close this vote was.

18:16They had to pull in J.D. Vance because it was a tie vote.

18:20What I would ask Senator Murkowski and every senator, do your job.

18:26You saw that she said shortly after that that she hopes the House will fix it or do better

18:30and send it back.

18:32Do your job at the Senate level, please, Republican members of the Senate.

18:36Don't send us a flawed bill because you cut yourself some sort of a deal.

18:40I did not see the workings of her deal or what she was able to protect for Alaska.

18:46But how do you do it?

18:48Where's the John McCain of the day who says, no, I'm not going to do that.

18:52I'm not going to just serve myself or my state.

18:56I'm going to make sure we do the right thing by the entire country.

18:58When they tried to have him vote to undo the Affordable Care Act, taking health care

19:04away from millions.

19:06This is something that many of these Republicans have wished for for a very long time.

19:10Cruelty.

19:11Harm to their very constituents.

19:14You asked me and I failed to answer you.

19:16Will we use this in future campaigns?

19:18You better believe it.

19:19These people are going to own these votes.

19:21And I'm thinking of the Pennsylvania Republicans.

19:23I'm watching to see how they vote on this big, ugly bill that will hurt health care, that

19:28will hurt our children, that will hurt our seniors, that will blow up our deficit for

19:33generations to come.

19:35Congresswoman Madeline Dean, thank you for taking the time for us tonight.

19:39Thank you, Brianna.

19:40Everyone is with me now.

19:42Gretchen, to you.

19:43The president wants this passed and fast.

19:46He's also making it clear that he'll punish Republicans who vote against it.

19:49But here's what he said on Air Force One this afternoon about Republican Congressman Thomas

19:54Massey, who opposed the bill.

19:57Well, he's going to have an opponent.

19:59He's got he's he's going to have a big opponent, a good opponent who's going to win.

20:03He's going to be history, I think.

20:06Should Massey and other Republicans unhappy with this bill be thinking twice about voting

20:12for it?

20:12Should they worry about that threat, do you think?

20:15I actually have a lot of respect for Republicans who have their own individual soul and who

20:23may speak their actual truth.

20:25I mean, I think that's true for all politicians.

20:27And I think most Americans would agree with the fact that that's what they don't like about

20:31politics is that people aren't true to themselves.

20:34And so I look at somebody like Thomas Massey and I say, hey, if you're against this, credit

20:39to you for standing up to somebody as powerful as Donald Trump.

20:42He doesn't have a great track record, meaning Trump, in primarying some people.

20:48He has not chosen the best of candidates.

20:50And by the way, Elon Musk has said that he's going to support Thomas Massey's campaign with

20:57money and he may start his own party called America, which would definitely splinter the

21:02Republican Party.

21:03So it's not just Thomas Massey.

21:06We should be clear that there's Don Bacon.

21:08There's Chip Roy, there's Andy Harris, there's David Valadeo.

21:14I mean, it only takes three Republicans to have this not pass the House.

21:19Jamal, what is, assuming this does end up passing the House, what is the Democratic strategy

21:26to counter this bill?

21:28And are they doing enough right now?

21:30The Democrats have turned this bill into the bitterest of pills, right?

21:34Each one of these Republicans who votes for this is in a marginal district, a competitive

21:38district, has had to swallow something they did not know that's going to be as hard to

21:42get down as this bill.

21:44Look at what Hakeem Jeffries has been doing.

21:46He started this off with that sit-in out in the House steps, 12 hours a plus on the sit-in.

21:52Then he had a speech.

21:53Then he's been doing content creators.

21:54The Democrats have been driving this message about tax cuts for the rich, taking corporate

21:59taxes down to 21% from 35%, and then cutting Medicaid for average, everyday Americans.

22:06The Democrats are the ones who made that argument.

22:08So I think the Democrats have done what it is their job is now.

22:11And then, you know, you saw in the Senate, they extended this out.

22:13But I got to tell you, Lisa Murkowski, what an anti-profile encourage, right?

22:19For someone to say, I voted for this, but I wanted to fail, out loud.

22:23She said that out loud on national television, that she wanted, she wants the House to stop

22:27it.

22:27I think we are looking for Republicans who can stand up, looking for all politicians, who

22:31can stand up and then say, here's what I believe.

22:34I didn't think it was a good bill.

22:36I could have gotten something out of it, but I didn't do it because it wasn't what was

22:38right for the country.

22:39She didn't do that.

22:40I just have no stomach at all for the way she's handling this.

22:43I think she wants the House to change it and send it back.

22:47But I hear your point there.

22:48Gretchen, I want to listen to something else that Senator Murkowski said after casting her vote.

22:52We were operating under a timeline that was basically an artificial timeline.

23:07And I think rather than taking the deliberative approach to good legislating, we rushed to get

23:22a product out.

23:24And Gretchen, I'll note that you've worked with her to get legislation passed, full disclosure

23:30there.

23:31But Murkowski could have stopped that artificial timeline, that lack of deliberation, that

23:36rush product with her vote.

23:38Should she have?

23:42Yeah.

23:42I mean, look, she was on the fence.

23:45And I think this will open up a huge debate about whether or not you should serve only the

23:50interests of the state that you represent or the entire nation.

23:54Look, she got a lot of concessions for people in Alaska that you mentioned at the top of the

23:59show.

24:00But is that necessarily good for somebody in Kentucky or somebody in Connecticut?

24:05I think she's trying to play both sides of the fence here.

24:08I also would add, though, that I don't think all the pressure should be on people who are

24:13moderates like Lisa Murkowski or Susan Collins, because there's a ton of other people, Republicans

24:19in the Senate, who didn't have the courage at all to say anything back to Donald Trump.

24:25And by the way, this isn't just about Donald Trump.

24:28The idea that this bill is even named big flies in the face of what Republicans believe in.

24:34And this is increasing this version, the national debt, by an additional $1 trillion.

24:40This is not Republican speak.

24:44So I don't believe all the pressure should just be on Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins all

24:48the time, who might decide to cross the aisle.

24:51There should be other Republicans in the Senate that would have the courage to say what Republican

24:57mandates have been for a very long time, which is reducing the deficit and reduce spending.

25:02Jamal, what do you think?

25:04Oh, I think, again, listen, I worked for a United States senator a couple decades ago who

25:09had to take a really tough war vote and didn't like it at all.

25:12But he didn't go around saying, oh, I took the vote and maybe I didn't like it.

25:16I mean, later you can say you took the vote.

25:20You got to take the good part with the bad part of the bill.

25:23You don't get to have it both ways.

25:24That is the problem with what Lisa Murkowski is up to.

25:27And I just think I can't imagine there are going to be a lot of people in Alaska who have

25:32a lot of respect for someone who says, I did it for you, but I didn't want it.

25:36I voted yes, but I hope no.

25:39Your first point, this will damage Trump's blue collar MAGA brand.

25:45Are you sure?

25:46How will that happen?

25:48Oh, you can never say never.

25:51I mean, and of course, the age of disinformation and the age of propaganda and social media means

25:58there isn't necessarily a straight line from doing something and being held accountable

26:02for doing it.

26:04But the two biggest parallels with this big, beautiful bill in terms of just the unpopularity

26:11of going for Medicaid and food stamps.

26:15But Medicaid, half of Medicaid recipients voted for Trump, half.

26:19The biggest parallel is George W.

26:22Bush in 2005, pivoting to a plan to privatize Social Security, which caused an enormous boomerang

26:31effect blowback and contributed to the big Republican midterm defeat the next year in 2006.

26:38And then, of course, again, Trump in his first term trying to abolish Obamacare, which included

26:44the Medicaid pensions, defeated by one vote, John McCain, the late John McCain being that

26:51key vote.

26:52And that fed into the reaction against Trump in his 2018 midterms.

26:59Difference here is that this has been passed.

27:01Now, you believe, though, exactly, John McCain had stopped it the last time.

27:09You believe, though, that the economics of this bill are also pretty simple in terms of

27:13what it will do.

27:14Trump is robbing the poor to pay to the rich.

27:17Even so, do you believe that Republicans will actually be punished for that, given the

27:22timeline?

27:23And I do want to say, and you know, because you've heard these arguments, right, that economists

27:27say that this will actually create a boon for the American.

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