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00:00Humans rule Earth without competition.
00:03But we're about to create something that may change that.
00:06Our last invention, the most powerful tool, weapon, or maybe even entity,
00:11artificial superintelligence.
00:14This sounds like science fiction.
00:17So let's start at the beginning.
00:19Intelligence is the ability to learn, reason, acquire knowledge and skills,
00:24and use them to solve problems.
00:26Intelligence is power, and we're the species that exploited it the most.
00:31So much so that humanity broke the game of nature and took control.
00:36But the journey there wasn't straightforward.
00:39For most animals, intelligence costs too much energy to be worth it.
00:43Still, if we track intelligence in the tree of species over time,
00:47we can see lots of diverse forms of intelligence emerge.
00:51The earliest brains were in flatworms 500 million years ago.
00:55Just a tiny cluster of neurons to handle basic body functions.
00:59It took hundreds of millions of years for species to diversify and become more complex.
01:04Life conquered new environments, gained new senses,
01:08and had to contend with fierce competition over resources.
01:11But in nature, all that matters is survival, and brains are expensive.
01:16So for almost all animals, a narrow intelligence fit for a narrow range of tasks was enough.
01:21In some environments, animals like birds, octopuses, and mammals evolved more complex neural structures.
01:28For them, it paid off to have more energy-consuming skills like advanced navigation and communication.
01:34Until 7 billion years ago, the hominins emerged.
01:38We don't know why, but their brains grew faster than their relatives.
01:42Something was different about their intelligence.
01:45Very slowly, it turned from narrow to general.
01:48From a screwdriver to a multi-tool.
01:51Able to think about diverse problems.
01:54Two million years ago, Homo erectus saw the world differently from anyone before.
01:59As something to be understood and transformed.
02:02They controlled fire, invented tools, and created the first culture.
02:07We probably emerged from them around 250,000 years ago with an even larger and more complex brain.
02:15It enabled us to work together in large groups and to communicate complex thoughts.
02:20We used our intelligence to improve our lives, to ask how things worked and why things are the way they are.
02:26With each discovery, we asked more questions and pushed forward, preserving what we learned, outpacing what evolution could do with genes.
02:35Knowledge builds on knowledge.
02:37Progress was slow at first and then sped up exponentially.
02:41Agriculture, writing, medicine, astronomy, or philosophy exploded into the world.
02:46200 years ago, science took off and made us even better at learning about the world and speeding up progress.
02:5335 years ago, the internet age began.
02:56Today, we live in a world made to suit our needs, created by us, for us.
03:01This is incredibly new.
03:03We forget how hard it was to get here.
03:06How enormous the steps on the intelligence ladder were and how long it took to climb them.
03:11But once we did, we became the most powerful animal in the world in a heartbeat.
03:16But we may be in the process of changing this.
03:20We're building machines that could be better at the very thing that gave us the power to conquer the planet.
03:26Humanity's final invention.
03:29Artificial intelligence.
03:31Artificial intelligence, or AI, is software that performs mental tasks with a computer.
03:37Code that uses silicon instead of neurons to solve problems.
03:41In the beginning, AI was very simple.
03:44Lines of code on paper.
03:46Mere proofs of concept to demonstrate how machines could perform mental tasks.
03:50Only in the 1960s did we start seeing the first examples of what we would recognize as AI.
03:56A chatbot in 1964.
03:59A program to sort through molecules in 1965.
04:02Slow, specialized systems requiring experts to use them.
04:07Their intelligence was extremely narrow.
04:10Built for a single task inside a controlled environment.
04:13The equivalent of flatworms 500 million years ago doing the minimum amount of mental work.
04:19Progress in AI research paused several times when researchers lost hope in the technology.
04:25But just like changing environments create new niches for life, the world around AI changed.
04:30Between 1950 and 2000 computers got a billion times faster while programming became easier and widespread.
04:39In 1972 AI could navigate a room.
04:42In 1989 it could read handwritten numbers.
04:45But it remained a fancy tool.
04:47No match for humans.
04:49Until in 1997 an AI shocked the world by beating the world champion in chess.
04:54Proving that we could build machines that could surpass us.
04:57But we calmed ourselves because a chess bot is quite stupid.
05:01Not a flatworm but maybe a bee.
05:04Only able to perform a specialized narrow task.
05:07But within this narrow task it's so good that no human will ever again beat AI at chess.
05:13As computers continued to improve AI became a powerful tool for more and more tasks.
05:19In 2004 it drove a robot on Mars.
05:22In 2011 it began recommending YouTube videos to you.
05:26But this was only possible because humans broke down problems into easy to digest chunks that computers could solve quickly.
05:33Until we told AIs to teach themselves.
05:37Rise of the self-learning machines.
05:40This is not a technical video so we're massively oversimplifying here.
05:45In a nutshell the sheer power of supercomputers was combined with the almost endless data collected in the information age to make a new generation of AI.
05:55AI experts began drastically improving forms of AI software called neural networks.
06:00Enormously huge networks of artificial neurons that start out being bad at their tasks.
06:06They then used machine learning which is an umbrella term for many different training techniques and environments that allows algorithms to write their own code and improve themselves.
06:16The scary thing is that we don't exactly know how they do it and what happens inside them.
06:21Just that it works and that what comes out the other end is a new type of AI.
06:26A capable black box of code.
06:29These new AIs could master complex skills extremely quickly with much less human help.
06:35They were still narrow intelligences but a huge step up.
06:39In 2014 Facebook AI could identify faces with 97% accuracy.
06:44In 2016 an AI beat the best humans in the incredibly complex game of Go.
06:50In 2018 a self-learning AI learned chess in 4 hours just by playing against itself and then defeated the best specialized chess bot.
07:00Since then machine learning has been applied to reading, image processing, solving tests and much more.
07:06Many of these AIs are already better than humans for whatever narrow task they were trained but they still remained a simple tool.
07:13AI still didn't seem that big of a deal for most people.
07:17And then came the chat bot ChatGPT.
07:20The work that went into it is massive.
07:23It trained on nearly everything written on the internet to learn how to handle language which it now does better than most people.
07:29It can summarize, translate and help with some maths problems.
07:34It's incredibly more broad than any other system just a few years ago.
07:38Not crushing any single benchmark but all of them at once.
07:42Many large tech companies are spending billions to build powerful competitors.
07:47AI is already transforming customer service, banking, healthcare, marketing, copywriting, creative spaces and more.
07:55AI generated content has already taken hold of social media, YouTube and news websites.
08:01Elections are expected to be inundated by propaganda and misinformation.
08:06No one is sure how much good or harm can come from adopting AI everywhere.
08:10Change is scary.
08:12There will be winners and losers.
08:14One of the biggest questions governments and corporations have now is how to manage the transition to an AI boosted economy.
08:21All these potential gains or risks are just the result of today's AI.
08:26ChatGPT's intelligence is a major step up but it remains narrow.
08:31While it can write a great essay in seconds, it doesn't understand what it's writing.
08:36But what if the AIs stopped being narrow?
08:40General AI
08:42What makes humans different from current AI is our general intelligence.
08:46Humans can technically absorb any piece of knowledge and start working on any problem.
08:51We're great at many very different skills and tasks, from playing chess to writing or solving science puzzles.
08:57Not equally, of course.
08:59Some of us are experts in some fields and beginners in others, but we can technically do all of them.
09:05In the past, AI was narrow and able to become good at one skill but was rather bad in all the others.
09:11Simply by building faster computers and pouring more money into AI training will get us new, more powerful generations of AI.
09:20But what if the next step for AI is to become a general intelligence like us? An AGI.
09:27If the AI improvement process continues as it has been, it's not unlikely that AGI could be better in most or even all skills that humans can do.
09:36We don't know how to build AGI, how it will work, or what it will be able to do.
09:42Since narrow AIs today are capable of mastering one mental task quickly, AGI might be able to do the same with all mental tasks.
09:50So even if it starts out stupid, an AGI might be able to become as smart and capable as a human.
09:57While this sounds like science fiction, most AI researchers think this will happen sometime this century, maybe already in a few years.
10:05Humanity is not ready for what will happen next, not socially, not economically, not morally.
10:12Earlier we defined intelligence as the ability to learn, reason, acquire knowledge and skills and use them to solve problems.
10:20All things humans excel at.
10:22An AGI as intelligent as even an average human would already disrupt modern civilization because they are not bound by the same limitations as we are.
10:31Today's AIs like ChatGPT already think and solve the tasks they were made for at least 10 times faster than even very skilled humans.
10:40Maybe AGI will be slower, but it may also be faster, maybe much faster.
10:46And since AGI is a software, you could copy them endlessly as long as you have enough storage and run them in parallel.
10:54There are 8 million scientists in the world.
10:57Now imagine an AGI copied a million times and put to work.
11:01Imagine 1 million scientists working 24-7, thinking 10 times faster than humans, without being distracted, only focused on the task they have been given.
11:11What if, suddenly, AGI could do all intelligence-based jobs in the world, from interpreting law to coding to creating animated YouTube videos, better, faster and much cheaper than humans?
11:24Would whoever controls this AGI suddenly own the economy?
11:29And thinking bigger, human progress is our intelligence applied to problems.
11:34So what could a million AGI's achieve?
11:38Solve fundamental questions of science, like dark energy.
11:42Invent new technology that gives us limitless energy, fix climate change, cure aging and cancer.
11:49But then again, sadly, humans apply their intelligence not just for the benefit of all.
11:54What if the AGI's are tasked to guide drones or pull the triggers in war?
12:00Or to engineer a virus that only kills people with green eyes?
12:04Or to create the most profitable social media so addictive that people starve in front of their screens?
12:10The creation of AGI could reasonably be as big of an event as taming fire or electricity, and give whoever invents it equally as much power.
12:20But now let's go one step further.
12:23What if the potential of AGI doesn't stop here?
12:27Intelligence Explosion
12:29Intelligence and knowledge build and accelerate each other, but humans are limited by biology and evolution.
12:36Once we evolved the right hardware, our software outpaced evolution by orders of magnitude, and within a heartbeat, we ruled this planet.
12:45But our software basically hasn't changed much since then, which is why we have obesity and destroy the climate for short-term gains.
12:52Since AGI is software on a computer, once it's smart enough to do AI research, the rate of AI progress should speed up a lot.
13:01And that results in better AI that's better at AI research without much human involvement.
13:06It may even be possible that AI could learn how to directly improve itself, in which case some experts fear this feedback loop could be incredibly fast.
13:16Maybe just months or years after the first self-improving AGI is switched on.
13:21Maybe it would actually take decades.
13:23We simply don't know.
13:24This is all speculative.
13:26But such an intelligence explosion might lead to a true super-intelligent entity.
13:31We don't know what such a being would look like, what its motives or goals would be, what would go on in its inner world.
13:38We could be as laughably stupid to a super-intelligence as squirrels are to us, unable to even comprehend its way of thinking.
13:47This hypothetical scenario keeps many people up at night.
13:51Humanity is the only example we have of an animal becoming smarter than all others.
13:57And we have not been kind to what we perceive as less intelligent beings.
14:02AGI might be the last invention of humanity.
14:06It's possible that it could become the most intelligent and therefore most powerful being on Earth.
14:11A god in a box that could exercise its power to bring unimaginable wealth and happiness to humans while securing our future.
14:19Or it could subvert civilization and bring about our end, with humanity unable to come up with a way to stop it.
14:27We'll look at some of these potential futures in more videos.
14:30But for now, let's wrap up.
14:32The only thing we know for sure is that today, right now, many of the largest and richest companies in the world
14:39are racing to create ever more powerful AIs.
14:43Whatever our future is, we are running towards it.
14:49Who knows how long we have until we must confront our AI future.
14:53Luckily, you still have plenty of time to prepare for it, if you're learning on Brilliant, that is.
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15:11Their latest course, How LLMs Work, takes you under the hood of real language models.
15:16It demystifies technologies like ChatGPT with interactive lessons on everything from how models build vocabulary
15:23to how they choose their next word.
15:25You'll learn how to tune LLMs to produce output with exactly your desired tonality, whether it's poetry or a cover letter.
15:32And you'll understand why training is really everything by comparing models trained on Taylor Swift lyrics
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