00:00Aaron Judge, of course, hoping for his third MVP hardware in the American League in the last four years.
00:07And a couple of weeks ago, we thought the award was already his, minus $20,000 for Aaron Judge to win his third AL MVP trophy in the last four seasons.
00:17He is still a hefty odds-on favorite, DRS, at minus $1,300.
00:21But that number continues to shrink by the week, and basically by the day, as the man known as Big Dumper, the catcher out there in Seattle, Cal Raleigh, who leads MLB with 32 home runs this year, continues to close the gap.
00:36Still a large gap, as you can see on the bottom of that graphic on your screen.
00:40Minus $1,300 for the captain in Pinscripes, and plus $550 for Big Dumper.
00:45That's just kind of a funny correlation.
00:47Captain number 99 in Pinscripes.
00:49Big Dumper on the other side.
00:51But, Donnie, it does seem as though this could be a tightly contested race if Cal Raleigh continues on his home run pace that he is off to already.
01:00Yeah, but the hard part about it, too, is we're asking for Cal Raleigh, who's a plus $550 in the FanDuel Sportsbook, to have a season that nobody really has those seasons.
01:0760-plus home runs.
01:09And also, you do get an asterisk for any 60-plus home runs when your home field is in the Pacific Northwest at T-Mobile.
01:14That's a very hard place to hit home runs and do it consistently.
01:18So he's sort of riding that uphill battle.
01:19So we're asking Cal Raleigh to do something special that nobody's ever done.
01:23When Aaron judges, hey, if he has a bad season, he's hitting .350 and probably going to hit 50 home runs.
01:28How do you overtake that?
01:29But I think we can all agree upon this.
01:31Because, again, the injuries aren't turned off in professional sports.
01:35Like a couple weeks ago, minus $20,000, we had four months left to play in the Major League Baseball season.
01:40Like, nobody was betting that, but the sportsbook was telling you, we don't want any more money on Aaron Judge.
01:45We're going to set a total that doesn't even make sense for you to actually take it.
01:48Now you're down to minus $1,300, which is still a crazy high number understanding what Cal Raleigh is doing.
01:53Just look at last night, a couple RBI and also had a double with nobody on base that almost left the yard by hitting the fence.
01:58So the guy is on an average right now of hitting, like, a home run at least, like, every other game pays, which is insane.
02:04But it's still Cal Raleigh.
02:05Are there seasons that you can grab on to say, man, I can't believe what he did this year.
02:09That was fantastic.
02:10But sooner than later, he's probably going to slow down.
02:12So I don't know if Aaron Judge gets below a minus $1,300, but still, we're not betting minus $1,300.
02:17It's not even a great parlay piece to put in because injuries do happen.
02:21This two or three weeks of a season where everybody else has a chance to gain in statistics on you, that will damage your ground.
02:27But for Cal Raleigh to plus $550, say, hey, you know what?
02:30That's a good price.
02:30Let me take that.
02:31Theoretically, he should be much closer in the race.
02:33But we're just trying to extrapolate the rest of the season and say, look at the ballparks again that Aaron Judge is going to hit in, Ben, right?
02:40The AL East has time.
02:42Like, you know, we talked about it yesterday.
02:43You take a look at Cal Raleigh, much harder ballparks to hit home runs in sustainability.
02:47He's having a good run now.
02:48Why?
02:49He's getting that heat and that humidity from the rust belt areas and the small ballparks in Wrigley Field.
02:55And he's doing damage, which is a shame.
02:57Because if you would have said that Cal Raleigh was the catcher for the Chicago Cubs, now it's game on.
03:02Now you're playing in your home ballpark at Wrigley Field throughout the summer months and 90 degree temperatures, you can really tack on.
03:08So how many home runs are going to cost him playing in Seattle, Ben?
03:107, 8, 9 for the rest of the season?
03:13That's if he's still having a great season.
03:14He can still pile up around 50 home runs.
03:17Judge right now is more price appropriate because the minus 20,000 never made any sense.
