00:00Well, let's talk next to Professor Maziar Ghiyabi, who's Director of the Center for Persian and Iranian Studies at the University of Exeter.
00:09Professor, welcome. So, Tehran, warning of a decisive response. What form of retaliation might we expect from Iran?
00:19I think, as we've spoken so far, the first option might be some form of intervention within the Strait of Hormuz.
00:27This could be, for instance, targeting only U.S.-bound ships, for instance, or a full closure, which might be probably coming at the later stage.
00:38This is a quite dramatic step, but I think the conflict, instead of sort of going towards a stalemate, is actually escalating further.
00:48Another option is Iran targeting U.S. military bases in the Middle East and along the Arabian Peninsula, so the southern part of the Persian Gulf.
01:00Again, Iranian officials, I think, are wary of direct attack on military bases, because if it causes casualties or dead soldiers,
01:10that could bring in the U.S. more actively in the war with repeated strikes.
01:14And Iranians are, at the moment, trying to avoid that, I would say.
01:18And fundamentally, I think there will be increasing attacks on Israel as well. I think that's part of the response.
01:24We're seeing somewhat confused messaging from the White House and President Trump about regime change in Iran.
01:31If regime change does go ahead, what might that look like?
01:37I think regime change is a word that is being used, but actually what it means is mostly a regime collapse or a situation of ungovernability.
01:49Along the lines that we've already seen in Libya and Syria in the past, this would mean a dysfunctioning remaining state,
01:59that's, let's say, the Islamic Republic with localized insurgencies supported by foreign powers, particularly Israel and the United States,
02:08which have a long-track history of supporting anti-Islamic Republic groups, both along Iran's borders, where minority population live,
02:18Balochistan, Iraqi Kurdistan, and the Republic of Azerbaijan, which enjoys very good relationships with Israel,
02:27as well as internal opposition groups, you know, and there's plenty of people who might not be happy with the Islamic Republic.
02:35So in a situation of ungovernability, we would be seeing something like that.
02:40And that's the worst of all outcomes, really, because it would mean a long, decade-long, we're talking,
02:48a period of instability with, you know, a complete destruction of Iran's current infrastructure scientific achievement
02:58and lack of human security.
03:01Do you envisage any possible peaceful paths for de-escalation now?
03:07I would like to say yes, but I'm very pessimistic about it,
03:14because I see a strong positioning by Israel and the United States,
03:19in spite of the rhetoric being used, as you said, partly confusing and ambiguous.
03:24It seems that they have both decided that this conflict needs to be continued to the point of capitulation.
03:30The Iranian political elite is not ready to capitulate,
03:36and these people have been, you know, fighting different battles for several decades.
03:41So the likely outcome for it is not a peaceful process.
03:44Unless, you know, incredible pressure from world superpowers, including China and Russia,
03:51could lead to a reasoning on the Middle Eastern front by the United States and Israel.
03:56Professor, good to see you. Thank you for that.
03:59Professor Maziar Giyabi, the Director of the Center for Persian and Iranian Studies at the University of Exeter.
