Expects says that Trump is following Netanyahu’s Mid-East policy playbook

ABC NEWS (Australia)

With the US having had struck nuclear sites in Iran, there are worries for a further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian studies Shahram Akbarzadeh gives his analysis on what this could mean for the region and Iran itself.

Transcript

00:00Well, unfortunately, at the moment, it doesn't look very likely.

00:07We have to put this in perspective.

00:11This is all happening because Israel launched a unilateral attack on Iran in the middle

00:19of negotiation between Iran and the United States over Iran's nuclear program.

00:28That was more than a week ago.

00:30And then only two days ago, less than two days ago, there was a meeting in Geneva between

00:38Iran and three European powers to find some kind of a resolution, a diplomatic solution

00:44to this conflict.

00:47And the European powers seem to send positive signals to Washington that there is a scope,

00:54there is possibility of an end to the conflict.

00:59So it's really hard to understand why President Trump has conducted this attack on Iran and

01:08why he is threatening more attacks on more targets in Iran.

01:12And the only justification one could think of is that he has simply accepted Netanyahu's

01:20rationale that Iran is an existential threat to Israel and to the United States.

01:27And the only way to deal with it is through force and effectively to bring about regime

01:33change in Iran.

01:34And what do you make of President Trump's speech that we just heard in the last half

01:40hour?

01:41It's only four minutes or so, but there was a fair bit of information in there with respect

01:44to the strength of the relationship between Israel and the United States.

01:50What are your observations of that?

01:51And where do you see other alliances perhaps potentially forming as a result?

01:56Well, there's no secret, it's not a secret that the United States is a close ally of Israel,

02:06that the United States is committed to Israel, but this goes far beyond a simple alliance.

02:15President Trump has effectively given up setting the agenda to Bibi Netanyahu in relation to

02:22Iran and in fact in relation to Gaza as well.

02:26So what is going on right now is that Netanyahu in Israel is setting a US foreign policy towards

02:35the Middle East.

02:36And Trump is simply following that.

02:38It's very much going according to Netanyahu's playbook of attacking Iran, undermining Iran and

02:47ultimately bringing about regime change because what is the expected outcome for President Trump?

02:59He cannot in any serious belief that Iran would simply surrender to US attacks.

03:08He must understand, he must know, I'm sure his advisors would have told him that Iran would

03:14retaliate.

03:15So where is this leading?

03:17That's the big question.

03:18Yeah, Professor, what do you think about that?

03:20We had former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison on a short time ago saying that President

03:25Trump was not interested in regime change.

03:29What reaction can we expect from Iran considering its military has been weakened and its alliances

03:35in the region have too?

03:37Well, President Trump may not have used the term regime change, but Bibi Netanyahu has.

03:46And everything that Trump has done, just simply following Netanyahu's lead, suggests that regime

03:52change is the intended outcome of this conflict.

03:56So this is a fanciful agenda.

04:00I can't imagine how the Iranian population are expected to rise up and depose the regime

04:07under fire.

04:08Sure, the Iranian regime is unpopular.

04:11Sure, there is a big gap between the elite, between the ruling clergy and the population.

04:18But how do you expect the Iranian population to listen to foreign, you know, foreign attackers'

04:26advice and change their own government?

04:28In fact, what we're going to see, and it's very likely to happen, is that the regime will

04:35feel even more safe and secure in its position.

04:38This is the best gift that the United States could have given the clerical regime in Iran.

04:45If that's the case, and the regime feels safer and more secure in its position as a result

04:52of this, would that then suggest that their reaction is probably going to be stronger and

04:59perhaps not weakened?

04:59I mean, we've heard from the United Nations Secretary General, Antoni Guterres, on Saturday

05:05branding the strikes on Iran.

05:07According to The Guardian, there's a dangerous escalation in the region already on the edge

05:11and a direct threat to international peace and security.

05:15Just what is at risk here in the region, and then if not international peace?

05:19Yes.

05:20Very good question, Catherine.

05:22You know, Iran had already indicated that if it's attacked by the United States, it will

05:30see the U.S. as a legitimate target and it can hit U.S. assets in the region.

05:37So what Iran can do right now, and has threatened to do, is to target U.S. assets in the Middle

05:46East.

05:47There are troops, there are infrastructure that Iran can target, but even more importantly,

05:54there are many Iranian-aligned groups in the region.

06:00You have various Shia militia in Iraq, you have the Houthis, who are in a position and

06:06can hit U.S. assets in the region.

06:09And they don't have to wait for an order from Tehran to do so.

06:13So that's the course we are going to see, I think we are likely to see.

06:19President Trump has really put U.S. policy on a very slippery slope.

06:26And any attack on U.S., of course, is going to lead to more retaliation.

06:32So this is a very vicious cycle of violence that we are going to see.

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