¿Cómo afecta el conflicto irano-israelí los precios del crudo?

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Los precios del petróleo subieron más de un 7% el viernes 13 de junio, tras la reanudación de los ataques militares entre Israel e Irán. El aumento de la incertidumbre política tiene un impacto directo en el mercado del crudo.   VIDEO: DW.

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00:00After Israel and Iran started launching air strikes against each other, why did the attention

00:05quickly shift to oil markets?

00:07Because when crude oil gets more expensive, so does everything else, from gas for your

00:12car to food at the supermarket.

00:14Higher oil prices mean higher energy and transportation costs, which, in turn, can slow down economic

00:20growth and drive up inflation as businesses pass the increased costs onto customers.

00:25Iran holds about 9% of the world's non-oil reserves and is a member of the Organization

00:30of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, also known as OPEC, a coalition of major oil exporting

00:36countries that also includes Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

00:40In fact, in 2023, Iran was the fourth largest crude oil producer in OPEC.

00:46So further escalation between Iran and Israel could easily disrupt Iranian oil supply exports.

00:52An even greater impact would occur if Iran were to block the Strait of Hormuz.

00:56That's because it's one of the world's most critical shipping routes, with approximately

01:0020% of the global oil supply passing through it.

01:03A closure of this trade could push oil prices above $100 per barrel, according to Goldman

01:08Sachs.

01:09For comparison, after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, oil surged to

01:15$127 per barrel.

01:17At the moment, oil inventories remain high, partly because K-crude producers have agreed

01:22to increase output in recent months.

01:24This could have a stabilizing effect on oil prices.

01:27To boost oil production further, OPEC could draw on its spare production capacity.

01:31But most of the countries with that kind of spare capacity sit in the Persian Gulf.

01:36As a result, even if more oil were produced, it would have only a limited stabilizing effect

01:41on the global market if transport through the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted.

01:45So, if the conflict between Iran and Israel were to shut down this choke point, a global

01:51rethink of oil transport logistics would be needed.

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