In a powerful show of force, Iran launches a major missile strike, escalating tensions with Israel and the United States ππ₯. Military analyst Alexander Mercouris explains how this move signals the beginning of a drawn-out war of attrition, with serious consequences for the entire region π. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky rejects peace talks once again, choosing to prolong conflict instead of pursuing diplomacy π€π. As the world watches, these global flashpoints are drawing closer to a dangerous edge. Get the full breakdown and critical insight into what comes next.
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NewsTranscript
00:00:00Good day. Today is Saturday 14th June 2025 and we are in the second day of the Israel-Iran war
00:00:09and I'm going to make a rather bold statement which is that I think that as the dust settles
00:00:17on the initial Israeli strikes it appears to me and of course I'm not fully expert in these things
00:00:27but it appears to me that the Israeli strikes on Iran have been rather less decisive than many were
00:00:37suggesting at the outset and perhaps fell somewhat short of Israeli expectations. Now I say that
00:00:48because of a number of things that have happened over the last 24 hours and that is a significant
00:00:55change for example in the tone of the commentary that we are starting to see in the Western media
00:01:02from euphoria and excitement at apparent Israeli success. I've now noticed that the media in the
00:01:11West is now starting to walk back a bit on the initial story. But anyway also from basically
00:01:22looking at exactly what Israel in fact achieved over the course of the initial strikes. Now I'm going
00:01:30to say a few things here. Firstly we don't have a complete picture. Some of the information, most of
00:01:36the information is being provided by Israel and there is no doubt at all as we will see that there was
00:01:44considerable disorganisation and this affected the Iranian reaction at the start of the operation.
00:01:55But firstly Iran has rapidly filled all the vacant spots created by the Israeli attack on the senior
00:02:11Iranian officials. The chief of staff, the head of the IRGC, the other military commands have all been
00:02:21replaced. It doesn't seem to me as if the entire Iranian military leadership has been decapitated
00:02:28or anything like that. We've had information about the attacks on the various nuclear sites and I think
00:02:37it's fair to say that though some significant damage was done to some of the facilities, the facilities
00:02:45overall remain intact and there's no suggestion here that Iran's nuclear program has been significantly
00:02:56damaged. And well perhaps the most interesting, the most interesting disclosure of all was that in the
00:03:06immediate hours after the initial Israeli strikes, I saw Israeli officials claimed that the worst case scenario
00:03:18had been that Iran would respond almost immediately to the Israeli strikes but that this was impossible,
00:03:29this had been rendered effectively impossible because of Israeli success in destroying the Iranian launch systems and that the implication
00:03:42was that it would take some time, several days perhaps, maybe even longer before the Iranians were able to get their act together
00:03:51and conduct a retaliatory strike with missiles against Israel. I saw several such claims appear across the internet
00:04:03and I saw that they were also being repeated in the Israeli media as well. Well those claims survived for just a few hours
00:04:15because a few hours later Iranian missiles started to be launched in some number, certainly in the hundreds, though it's difficult
00:04:27to give an exact sense of how many and they started to fall on targets in Israel and there was some dispute as to how successful
00:04:39these strikes were. The Iranians are claiming that various Israeli military facilities including air bases and other places were hit and were significantly damaged
00:04:52and there doesn't seem to be any serious doubt that some damage was done and some missiles impacted on the Israeli city of Tel Aviv,
00:05:05the big Israeli city of Tel Aviv. So it's clear that the attack did not completely disable either Iran's command system,
00:05:19as I said they've been able to very quickly replace all the officers who have senior officers who have been killed,
00:05:29which suggests that Iran had already built in some measure of redundancy into its command chain, which is by the way entirely unsurprising,
00:05:41that Israeli claims to have destroyed the entire missile launching system that Iran possesses,
00:05:53were clearly significantly overstated with Iran able to strike at Israel and showing that it has the capability to do that.
00:06:05And the Iranian nuclear sites have been badly dented but they have not been fundamentally compromised in a way that would call into question
00:06:17the entire viability of the Iranian nuclear program. Now that is not to say that the Iranians have come out well from the first day.
00:06:31The first thing to say is that Iran's air defence system appears to have been completely out of operation in the first couple of hours of the attack,
00:06:46enabling Israeli aircraft to overfly Iran to fly into Iranian airspace, certainly in the later stages of the operation,
00:06:58in a way that simply has not been the case previously. The Iranians claim that they've shot down I believe two Israeli fighter jets,
00:07:08and they claim that they've captured an Israeli pilot, a woman. The Israelis deny all of this, no doubt we'll be getting some clarity about this,
00:07:18but overall it does seem as if, for several hours at least, the Iranian air defence system simply wasn't working.
00:07:27And there's a great deal of speculation as to why this was so, whether it was significantly damaged, as has been claimed in the past,
00:07:36by the Israeli strike on a Russian S-300 radar and missile battery back in October.
00:07:49The trouble with that argument is that however important and effective that S-300 missile battery actually is,
00:07:59and however much damage was really done over the course of that attack, we're not talking here about the entirety of Iran's air defence system.
00:08:14But the fact is that no part of it for several hours appeared to be working.
00:08:19And that, of course, begs a massive question, why?
00:08:24Bill Zeitung, the German newspaper, which is actually often very well informed about things and was apparently kept informed by the German authorities,
00:08:38saying that what disabled the Iranian air defence system was a massive cyber attack carried out by the Israelis and perhaps by the Americans as well.
00:08:52And that seems to me as good an explanation as any.
00:08:57But gradually, over the course of the day, yesterday, we started to see parts of the air defence system start to come back into operation.
00:09:13It was all done in a very disorganised and gradual way.
00:09:18But if it was a cyber attack, or maybe the confusion was caused by Israeli drone attacks on air defence installations,
00:09:32or who knows what the full explanation was.
00:09:35But anyway, gradually, though, as I said, in a fragmentary and disorganised way,
00:09:41we started to see the Iranian air defence system begin to resume its work.
00:09:48So, it looks as if, to repeat again, Iran has come through the first day,
00:09:59maybe the hardest punch that Israel was able to launch against Iran,
00:10:09with its political leadership fully intact as far as I can see,
00:10:14with some of its top military officers killed but replaced,
00:10:19with several of its nuclear scientists killed.
00:10:24And here I should suggest that there's been major lapses in Iranian security.
00:10:30You would have thought that these people especially would be particularly well protected.
00:10:35But Iran is a big country with a large science and technology base.
00:10:41Nobody, I think, doubts that Iran would be able to find scientists to replace these people,
00:10:49especially since all the major breakthroughs have already been made,
00:10:54and with its nuclear sites largely intact.
00:10:58And it is hitting back, and, well, it may be there's arguments about how effective the original missile strikes were,
00:11:10the first missile strikes were.
00:11:12But the fact is that they did take place, and they are hitting targets.
00:11:17They did hit, at any rate, if not targets, positions in Israel.
00:11:21Now, here I think an important point needs to be made, and it's a point that I've made before many times.
00:11:30Steve Witgoff apparently has also made it in conversations with US senators.
00:11:36But it's also starting to be alluded to in various Western media outlets.
00:11:45It's discussed in Russian media outlets.
00:11:48And I think that it's not ultimately controversial,
00:11:53which is that Israel is not in a position to sustain a long drawn out conflict with Iran.
00:12:02Iran is a far bigger country.
00:12:05Israel has a population of around 10 million people.
00:12:09Iran has a population of 90 million people.
00:12:14Israel is geographically a small country.
00:12:18Iran is a vast country.
00:12:22Israel has a sophisticated but small industrial base.
00:12:28Iran has a very large industrial base, some parts of which are less sophisticated than Israel's,
00:12:37but some parts of it are fairly sophisticated too.
00:12:41Iran, in other words, has far bigger resources, far more strategic depths than Israel does,
00:12:52provided the government retains its resolve and its control of the country and is able to resist steps being taken within Iran itself that might cause its overthrow.
00:13:10So, the further, the longer this operation, this conflict continues,
00:13:21and it's a point that we've made on the Duran in a live stream and in a programme that Alex Christoforo and I did,
00:13:29the longer the longer the conflict continues, and I've said that as well in programmes here,
00:13:38the more the strategic balance will start to shift against Israel.
00:13:45Now, I've also received some information here from people who have been tracking the events of the last 24 hours.
00:13:58It's been pointed out to me that, for example, that the F-35 stealth fighters that Israel is increasingly relying upon to conduct deep strikes,
00:14:11and which now constitute a significant part of Israel's air force, are fragile, are relatively fragile machines.
00:14:21They are not designed for long-term sustained conflict.
00:14:26And, of course, if we come back to the question of Iranian missile strikes on Israel,
00:14:36and those strikes have now been supplemented by drone strikes.
00:14:39There's been pictures, I've seen one picture of the Iron Dome system, I believe,
00:14:46shooting down a Geran, or rather a Shahid drone over Israeli territory.
00:14:53Every Iranian missile that is launched at Israel, the Israelis try to shoot down.
00:14:59Apparently, one learns that two air defence missiles have to be used for there to be any serious chance of shooting down an incoming ballistic missile,
00:15:18ballistic missiles, ballistic missiles being increasingly difficult targets to shoot down.
00:15:25There is already a shortage of Patriot missile systems.
00:15:31The Russians calculate, apparently, that there are 3,000 Patriot missiles interceptors in existence around the world.
00:15:40Not all of them in Israel, by any means.
00:15:43Not all of them in the United States, by any means.
00:15:46Israel obviously has its own air defence systems, its Iron Dome, its David's Sling, all of those systems.
00:15:56But, of course, it has a relatively small industrial base.
00:16:01The United States has a much bigger industrial base.
00:16:06But, despite the drain of missiles caused by the conflict in Ukraine, and despite the urgency to increase production of air defence missiles,
00:16:20apparently, Raytheon is simply not able to keep up, even with Ukrainian demand for Patriot missiles, let alone with any additional demand that Israel might face.
00:16:35So, yes, for the moment, the Israelis are able to shoot down at least a proportion, maybe even the majority, of Iranian missiles.
00:16:45But, if the Iranians have as big a stockpile of missiles as they claim, and they are now saying that they can launch 2,000 ballistic missiles at Israel over the next couple of days,
00:16:59that may be a wild exaggeration for all I know, but let's say they do have large numbers of such missiles.
00:17:10Let's assume also that Iran has production facilities to build more of these missiles.
00:17:19It's plausible.
00:17:21Again, I'm not going to pretend that I know the details of the Iranian military industrial system.
00:17:29But it's logical to think that much of it will have been hardened and placed underground.
00:17:38And Iran, as an extremely mountainous country, is well adapted, has a geography that is well adapted to concealing and shielding industrial facilities.
00:17:52Anyway, let's assume that the Iranians can maintain over the duration missile strikes against Israel.
00:18:02Then there will come a point when air defence missiles start to run out.
00:18:07The United States will struggle to maintain supply.
00:18:12And then, of course, we will be faced with a strategic crisis.
00:18:17Now, I don't say this is going to happen in a few days.
00:18:22It may take weeks.
00:18:24It may take months.
00:18:26But if there is an open ended conflict, the risk of that is there.
00:18:33And of course, long before we reach that point, the anxieties and the concerns and the stresses will grow.
00:18:42And this may partly explain why we are seeing an escalation of rhetoric from the Israeli side.
00:18:49They're now talking about attacking Iran's oil industry, which, of course, they can do.
00:18:57They can certainly launch attacks on the oil refineries.
00:19:01But that would be, of course, a very significant blow to Iran and to its economy going forward.
00:19:13But given that Iran is now at war and is apparently self-sufficient in food and basic energy and can no doubt continue to receive help and assistance from some of its BRICS allies.
00:19:28And will that be enough to force Iran, given that the Iranians are most probably going to start to mobilize their economy, their industrial system to prioritize the war that they are now in?
00:19:49Is that going to be sufficient to stop the Iranians conducting strikes against Israel?
00:19:56I don't know the answer to that question, but I'm going to guess no.
00:20:02No.
00:20:03And, of course, attacking Iranian oil facilities does involve risks.
00:20:13Because what if Iran, if it feels that its own energy facilities are being attacked, starts to take countermeasures against the oil and energy facilities of other countries, even countries like the Gulf States, with which currently Iran has good relations?
00:20:36I'm going to guess that for the Iranians.
00:20:37I'm going to make a guess that for the moment, the Iranians are very, very unwilling to do that.
00:20:42They probably do not want to jeopardize their relationship with their Gulf allies or rather Gulf friends.
00:20:49They're not allies.
00:20:50But if a war becomes prolonged, then, of course, the imperative of war starts to switch in.
00:21:05And just as the Israelis might start taking ever more extreme and urgent measures to retress the shift in the balance, so the Iranians, if they feel under stress, might start to take action of their own.
00:21:26And it's been suggested that it's not just oil facilities across the Gulf that Iran might target or the Straits of Hormuz, which Iran might close.
00:21:43It could also, for example, attack and disable or at least inflict significant damage upon desalination plants, Saudi Arabia's desalination plants, which would be a major catastrophe for Saudi Arabia, just saying.
00:22:05So anyway, one way or the other, the Iranians do potentially have various cards that they could play.
00:22:13And they might feel under pressure to do that in the event that there was a long war.
00:22:22Now, that may explain why the Gulf states are now taking urgent diplomatic action.
00:22:29MBS has been very busy.
00:22:31He has been phoning Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron and Maloney in Italy.
00:22:39The UAE has also been very busy.
00:22:42They have their foreign minister has been calling various European foreign ministers and also Lavrov.
00:22:49All of them have been saying that they are strongly opposed to this Israeli attack on Iran.
00:22:57They've all condemned it.
00:22:59And one gets the sense that they are doing what they can to try to get this conflict stopped as soon as they can before it escalates further, spirals further out of control.
00:23:14Whether they will be successful is an entirely different matter, but one can understand their nervousness.
00:23:22And anyway, this is, it seems to me, where we are with the conflict at the present time.
00:23:29Now, both the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Pez Eshkan of Iran have also been busy phoning up their respective friends.
00:23:45I understand that the Iranians have been in contact with Pakistan, which is now pledging support, apparently.
00:23:52And there's even stories, which I don't myself believe, that Pakistan is preparing to send fighter jets to defend Iran.
00:24:02I don't believe these stories, by the way.
00:24:05But anyway, interestingly enough, Netanyahu and Pez Eshkan, over the course of yesterday, both called or were called by, I'm not sure which it was, and spoke with one and the same person.
00:24:29And that was President Putin of Russia.
00:24:34And the call happened at 2010 Moscow time, fairly late in the evening.
00:24:41And it was very interesting to read the Russian readout.
00:24:45The Kremlin has provided a very detailed readout of these two conversations.
00:24:50And interestingly enough, it's provided a single readout, covering both conversations at the same time.
00:24:59And the readout, the Kremlin readout leads as follows.
00:25:03In light of the dangerous escalation resulting from Israel's act of force against Iran, Vladimir Putin had telephone conversations with President of Iran, Masud Pez Eshkan, and Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu.
00:25:21Now notice that the very first sentence, dangerous escalation resulting from Israel's act of force against Iran, shows that Putin and the Russians unequivocally blame Israel for this latest escalation.
00:25:40And we're then told that the President of Russia expressed his condolences to the authorities and citizens over Iran, over the heavy death toll resulting from Israeli strikes, including among civilians.
00:25:55So condolences to Iran from Russia.
00:26:00And then we are further told that Vladimir Putin stressed that Russia condemned Israel's actions, which had been carried out in violation of the UN Charter and international law.
00:26:14The Russian side has been fully supporting the efforts to resolve the situation around Iran's nuclear program peacefully,
00:26:21and had proposed concrete initiatives aimed at reaching mutually acceptable agreements.
00:26:28Russia will continue to promote a de-escalation between Iran and Israel.
00:26:34So, condemnation of Israel and a straightforward statement from Russia, from the President of Russia,
00:26:44the President of Russia, that the Israeli action was a violation of international law and of the UN Charter.
00:26:53And a further statement from Putin that this was a completely inappropriate thing to do.
00:27:03The whole argument that this was a proper pre-emptive attack was completely wrong,
00:27:11because negotiations were in fact underway between Iran and the United States,
00:27:16with Russia also involved, to try to seek a diplomatic solution to any concerns provoked or which arose from the fact of Iran's nuclear program.
00:27:35I'll come to this shortly.
00:27:38And then we have Putin, the readout of Putin's comments, discussions with Netanyahu.
00:27:45In his conversation with the Prime Minister of Israel,
00:27:48the President of Russia emphasized the importance of resuming the negotiations
00:27:53and resolving any issues pertaining to Iran's nuclear program exclusively via political and diplomatic means.
00:28:02In addition, the Russian leader expressed willingness to provide mediation so as to prevent further escalation.
00:28:10And then we're told that it was agreed that the Russian side will maintain close contact with the authorities of both Iran and Israel,
00:28:18with a view to resolving the present situation, which is fraught with the most disastrous consequences for the entire region.
00:28:27So Putin, it seems to me from this readout, was made pretty clear his anger about what had happened to Netanyahu.
00:28:39He's strong disagreement, and that's an understatement for what Netanyahu and the Israelis have been up to.
00:28:48And he's telling the Israelis to stop, and he's telling the Iranians that the Russians feel that the Iranians are in the right here,
00:29:03and that the attack upon them was wrong.
00:29:07Now, yesterday there was a meeting at the UN Security Council, and both China and Russia weighed in pretty clearly on Iran's side.
00:29:20The Russians, by the way, broadened their criticism.
00:29:25They said that various Western powers had played a role in the Israeli attack on Iran, not just the United States.
00:29:34They said that some of the Israeli fighter jets that had participated in the attacks on Iran had used British bases in Cyprus.
00:29:44They also said that there had been assistance afforded to Iran by France and Germany.
00:29:50Again, I'm not in any position to verify or corroborate any of this.
00:29:56But I've not seen any very strong denials from anybody in the West.
00:30:02So, strong statements from the Russians.
00:30:06Now, will they be backed by any further action?
00:30:10Now, I am going to suggest that they will be, and there are further factors to take into account here.
00:30:18Now, here I am going to disclose something which I have not mentioned before.
00:30:24But some time before, several days before the Israeli attack on Iran, I had been informed by a source who obtains information from Russia, from within Russia, that the Russians had come to the conclusion that the drone attack,
00:30:53drone attack on the Russian air bases, operations, Operation Spider's Web, had been conducted by Ukraine, with help from Britain, certainly, with help from the United States, obviously, but with help from Israel also.
00:31:16That the Israelis played a significant part in the training of the Ukrainian operatives who carried out the attack, that they helped to plan the attack, that they suggested various means with which to conduct the attack,
00:31:35including the Russians, including the Russians, including the Russians, including the whole business of assembling drones, hiding them in containers, locating them, pre-positioning them close to Russian air bases, doing all of those sort of things.
00:31:49And I didn't pass on that information at the time, because, well, I found it convincing, but always one has to worry about giving away information that might reveal the source.
00:32:08And it seemed to me that this was such sensitive information coming from within Russia, that it seemed to me that if I did actually discuss this information in a program,
00:32:21that might lead to the Russian authorities putting two and two together and working out who that source is.
00:32:34Now, I think that is very unlikely now for one very simple reason, that if you go to the Russian media, you'll find that it is full of speculation about this.
00:32:45And it turns out that lots and lots of people in Russia had already been coming to this exact conclusion, even before the Israeli attack on Iran had taken place.
00:33:01In other words, that operations, in other words, that operations, operations spiders web was conducted by Ukraine with a certain degree of Israeli involvement.
00:33:13Now, I want to stress, I don't know anything about this.
00:33:18I am simply passing off on what various people are saying in Russia and what I believe the Russians themselves think.
00:33:31I don't know what role, if any, Israel had, because I have no access to any classified information, be it from inside Israel, from inside Russia, or from any such place.
00:33:47No one in the Russian security or intelligence services talks to me, and no one from the Israeli intelligence and security services talks to me.
00:33:58So I have no ability to verify any of this information.
00:34:05But the point is, and this is, I think, the key thing, many, many people in Russia believe it.
00:34:11And I suspect that it isn't just people in Russia who believe it, but people in authority in Russia who believe this.
00:34:23And I believe that that is going to harden Russian views.
00:34:28It explains, in part, the obvious coldness in the discussion between Putin and Netanyahu.
00:34:36But it also suggests very strongly that the Russians are indeed going to start taking steps to help Iran.
00:34:43Now, what steps will those steps be?
00:34:45Well, I'm going to suggest that initially, at least, these steps will not be very visible.
00:34:54The Russians are unlikely, for example, to supply complete air defence systems to Iran, at least not initially.
00:35:05But they will almost certainly provide intelligence.
00:35:09They were doing that, apparently, during the missile exchanges last year.
00:35:14And it's quite plausible that they will do this on a bigger scale now.
00:35:18And they are obviously in a position to do that.
00:35:22They have their eyes in the sky.
00:35:24They have their electronic and other intelligence on a much bigger scale than Iran can possibly do.
00:35:31And, well, if it is true that one of the reasons that the Iranian air defence system broke down
00:35:44because of an Israeli and, for all I know, joint Israeli and American cyber attack,
00:35:53as Biltzaitin claims, and which I think are perfectly plausible,
00:36:00then the Russians are in a position to help with that as well.
00:36:04Now, I say that, I would just mention something which most people appear to have forgotten,
00:36:11which is no longer talked about anymore.
00:36:13But I remember that way back in 2017, at the height of the Russiagate hysteria in the United States,
00:36:22the Washington Post published a bragging article.
00:36:30America publishes far too much bragging material, just to say.
00:36:35But anyway, they published a bragging article in which they said that Barack Obama,
00:36:41in one of the last steps that he had taken as president,
00:36:44had authorised the US intelligence community to riddle Russian infrastructure
00:36:50with all sorts of cyber bombs, which the United States would be able to detonate at will.
00:36:59And, well, after the start of the special military operation,
00:37:04I was waiting to see when those cyber bombs were going to be detonated by the United States.
00:37:14Cyber bombs that we were told, I remember reading that article,
00:37:18could cripple large parts of Russia's infrastructure,
00:37:24and nothing like that happened.
00:37:27Now, there might be all kinds of explanations for this.
00:37:30It could be that the Russians threatened countermeasures,
00:37:34if the United States did anything like that.
00:37:38But I think much more plausibly,
00:37:40given the entirely reckless way
00:37:43in which the Biden administration behaved
00:37:45throughout the entire period of the special military operation,
00:37:50the Russian counter-cyber operation services,
00:37:57about which I know absolutely nothing,
00:38:00but which I am going to guess are extremely well resourced
00:38:03and very efficient.
00:38:06Once they'd read that article in the Washington Post,
00:38:10went around searching for the cyber bombs,
00:38:13and perhaps found them and disabled everyone.
00:38:18So I suspect that the Russians by now have a great deal of experience
00:38:22and knowledge in this sort of thing.
00:38:25They have brilliant programmers and people of that kind.
00:38:30And I suspect that they,
00:38:32and by the way, their Chinese friends,
00:38:35are probably well able to help Iran
00:38:37harden and proof its systems
00:38:42in ways that up to now Iran has simply been unable to do.
00:38:49Now, that now brings me to something else,
00:38:52because I noticed over the last 24 hours
00:38:57that a certain narrative has been spread
00:39:01quite widely across the internet.
00:39:04I've had people writing to me about it as well,
00:39:07about the supposed deception operation
00:39:13that the United States and Israel launched against Iran,
00:39:20which explained why Iran was caught by surprise
00:39:25by this Israeli attack.
00:39:28And a lot of this centres on portraying
00:39:33the US President Donald Trump
00:39:36as a Machiavellian character
00:39:39who supposedly deceived the Iranians
00:39:42into thinking that he was interested
00:39:46in a diplomatic solution to the crisis,
00:39:49even as he and the Israelis
00:39:53were cunningly working together
00:39:55to launch this attack on Iran.
00:40:00Now, the great problem I have
00:40:03with this entire theory
00:40:04is that I don't see any evidence
00:40:09of a deception operation at all.
00:40:12I say that because over the days
00:40:15preceding the attack on Iran,
00:40:19I was reading right across the Western media
00:40:22reports about how Israel was about to attack Iran.
00:40:29I was, in fact, so concerned about these reports
00:40:33that I discussed it briefly
00:40:34in one of my videos.
00:40:37I think I published it either a day
00:40:41or even two days before the attack took place.
00:40:44And over the course of a live stream
00:40:48on the Duran with Professor Jeffrey Sachs,
00:40:55Professor Sachs and I had a brief discussion
00:40:59in which we both expressed
00:41:01our very serious concern and worries
00:41:04that an attack upon Iran
00:41:07was or appeared to be imminent.
00:41:10And I had been reading,
00:41:13as everybody should, by the way,
00:41:15Larry Johnson's Sonar 21 blog.
00:41:20And can I just say it's one of the best blogs around.
00:41:23And Larry Johnson, of course,
00:41:25is a former retired U.S. intelligence officer,
00:41:30which I am not.
00:41:31And, of course, he's been on his travels.
00:41:34He's been to Moscow,
00:41:35where he's met with all sorts of people,
00:41:37including Lavrov.
00:41:38And he was flying to Dubai.
00:41:41So he was not able to keep full track of everything.
00:41:45But I noticed that in one of his blogs,
00:41:48he too anticipated an attack on Iran
00:41:52and was concerned that the United States
00:41:56was probably going to participate in it.
00:42:02It is an utterly incompetent,
00:42:09completely bizarre deception operation
00:42:12that is conducted with all the details about it,
00:42:17the details that an attack on Iran is about to take place,
00:42:20being spread across the media.
00:42:24Surely, if there was a deception operation,
00:42:31the U.S. and Israeli authorities
00:42:34would be going out of their way
00:42:37to keep reports of an Israeli attack on Iran
00:42:42entirely out of the media
00:42:46and to scotch any such reports
00:42:51by saying that if such reports were made,
00:42:54they were completely untrue,
00:42:57the United States was entirely focused instead
00:43:01on pursuing a diplomatic solution,
00:43:04something which never happened.
00:43:07So I can't see that there was any deception operation at all.
00:43:12If there was any element of surprise within Iran,
00:43:20if there was disorganisation within Iran
00:43:23and the evidence suggests that there was,
00:43:26then this, and one has to say this straightforwardly,
00:43:29points to dysfunction and disorganisation
00:43:34within the Iranian security and political apparatus,
00:43:40a degree of disorganisation and dysfunction,
00:43:44which unfortunately is not uncommon,
00:43:48but which tends to resolve itself over time
00:43:54during a time period of crisis, just to say,
00:43:58rather than to any cunning deception operation
00:44:02practised by anybody.
00:44:04If Jeffrey Sachs, Larry Johnson, and myself
00:44:10could all see an attack coming,
00:44:15it is incredible that the Iranians
00:44:18could not see it also.
00:44:20Now, this view of Donald Trump
00:44:24as some kind of Machiavellian figure,
00:44:26I think, originates in something completely different,
00:44:30which is that the United States
00:44:32clearly did give the green light to Israel
00:44:35to conduct this operation,
00:44:37and they didn't just give the green light,
00:44:39they facilitated it.
00:44:40They provided air refuelling facilities
00:44:45to Israeli aircraft,
00:44:48they provided weapons to Israel
00:44:51to conduct this operation.
00:44:52They did all of those things,
00:44:56but they also attempted incompetently
00:45:03and unconvincingly
00:45:06to distance themselves
00:45:09from this whole operation.
00:45:11So we had that statement by Marco Rubio
00:45:14saying that this was entirely
00:45:17an Israeli unilateral action,
00:45:20that the United States itself
00:45:23was not involved.
00:45:25As I said, nobody in their senses
00:45:28would take that seriously.
00:45:30And of course, Donald Trump
00:45:32then completely undermined
00:45:34and sabotaged and torpedoed
00:45:37that whole cover story
00:45:38by, in effect, bragging
00:45:41after what he obviously thought
00:45:44was the success of the Israeli strikes,
00:45:47that he had been in on it all along.
00:45:50Again, if we have had disorganisation,
00:45:54some degree of disorganisation
00:45:56and dysfunction on the Iranian side,
00:45:59making possible the effective strikes,
00:46:02some of the more effective strikes
00:46:04that the Israelis carried out
00:46:05on the first day.
00:46:07We have abundant evidence
00:46:10of similar disorganisation
00:46:13and dysfunction on the American side.
00:46:16The American side cannot even get
00:46:19its narrative sorted out.
00:46:21Is this a unilateral Israeli strike
00:46:24with the United States not involved?
00:46:26Is it all part of some cunning plan
00:46:29to put pressure on the Iranians
00:46:32to agree to negotiations?
00:46:35Did Donald Trump,
00:46:36what blow did Donald Trump play?
00:46:39It is a shocking picture.
00:46:43Now, some people will say
00:46:45that this is some kind of apologia
00:46:47for the US government.
00:46:50How can it be?
00:46:51How can disorganisation
00:46:54and incompetence
00:46:56and dysfunction
00:46:57on this kind of scale
00:46:59justify anything like that?
00:47:01And what it has done,
00:47:03to repeat again,
00:47:05is that it has created
00:47:06a situation now
00:47:07in which Israel is locked
00:47:11into some sort of long-term conflict
00:47:14with Iran.
00:47:16Already today,
00:47:18it's starting to look
00:47:19as if the assumption
00:47:21that Iran is going to collapse
00:47:24like a house of cards
00:47:25is most probably wrong.
00:47:28As I said,
00:47:29the Iranians have taken the blow.
00:47:32But they seem to be coming back.
00:47:34And the chances are
00:47:36that they will start
00:47:37to strengthen their response
00:47:39over the next couple of weeks.
00:47:41And that the balance of advantage
00:47:42is going to start to tilt
00:47:44in their favour.
00:47:45It's starting to look to me
00:47:47as if, again,
00:47:49different parts
00:47:49of the American government
00:47:51aren't in harmony
00:47:53with each other.
00:47:54They haven't really come up
00:47:55with any kind of agreed plan.
00:47:58and the result is
00:48:02that the United States
00:48:04is again being propelled
00:48:05into another forever war
00:48:07in the Middle East,
00:48:09which is exactly what
00:48:10the President Donald Trump
00:48:12said during his election
00:48:13he was going to avoid.
00:48:15To me,
00:48:17this is dreadful.
00:48:20It is awful.
00:48:21It suggests a government
00:48:23that has no control
00:48:25of its own foreign policy.
00:48:29As I said,
00:48:30if it planned deceitfully
00:48:33and duplicitly
00:48:34some kind of cunning attack
00:48:37on Iran,
00:48:38deceiving Iran,
00:48:40in the way that, say,
00:48:41the Japanese are supposed to have done
00:48:43prior to Pearl Harbor,
00:48:44then they went about it
00:48:46in the most botched,
00:48:48incompetent,
00:48:49and foolish way.
00:48:51Anyway,
00:48:52that's all I'm going to say
00:48:53about this.
00:48:54I'm sure this narrative
00:48:55is going to continue
00:48:56just as I see
00:48:57that there's another narrative
00:48:58that Israel,
00:49:01it's not Israel,
00:49:02it's really attacking Iran,
00:49:03it's the United States.
00:49:05All I would say about that,
00:49:07that that is,
00:49:08that assumes
00:49:09that Benjamin Netanyahu
00:49:11of all people
00:49:12has no agency
00:49:15in this matter
00:49:16and that he is essentially
00:49:18acting as a cat's paw
00:49:20for the Americans.
00:49:22This from someone
00:49:24who has been demanding
00:49:26an attack on Iran
00:49:27for all my adult life.
00:49:30Anyway,
00:49:31I just find that
00:49:33very difficult
00:49:33to accept
00:49:35or believe.
00:49:37As I said,
00:49:37we're already looking
00:49:38at disorganisation
00:49:40and muddle
00:49:41and chaos
00:49:43on the American side
00:49:44and I suspect
00:49:46that before very long
00:49:47we're going to see
00:49:48the same muddle
00:49:49and chaos
00:49:49start to affect
00:49:51the whole way
00:49:52in which this thing
00:49:53is prosecuted
00:49:54with already people
00:49:56like Steve Bannon
00:49:57and Tucker Carlson
00:49:59and other members
00:50:00of the MAGA base
00:50:02starting to speak out
00:50:04against this.
00:50:06Anyway,
00:50:07that's what I'm going to say
00:50:08at the moment.
00:50:09It is increasingly
00:50:10looking to me
00:50:11as if we're at the start
00:50:13of a very long war,
00:50:15a war of attrition.
00:50:17You can say goodbye
00:50:17to any idea
00:50:19of an Asia pivot
00:50:20by the way,
00:50:21just to say.
00:50:24I mean,
00:50:25how can a thing
00:50:26like that happen
00:50:27if Israel
00:50:29and ultimately
00:50:29the United States
00:50:31are going to be dragged
00:50:32into a prolonged conflict
00:50:34with Iran
00:50:36and Iran
00:50:38that is probably
00:50:39going to get
00:50:40an increasing amount
00:50:41of support
00:50:42from the BRICS powers,
00:50:45just to say.
00:50:46So an Asia pivot,
00:50:48you can forget it.
00:50:50And of course,
00:50:51the immediate
00:50:52big losers here
00:50:54are the Ukrainians,
00:50:57Zelensky
00:50:58and potentially
00:51:01Taiwan.
00:51:04America already
00:51:05has depleted
00:51:06arsenals
00:51:07of key weapons
00:51:09as President Trump
00:51:10himself
00:51:11has recently
00:51:12admitted.
00:51:13How is it going
00:51:14to replenish
00:51:15and restock them
00:51:16if it's now
00:51:17going to be involved
00:51:18in an open-ended
00:51:19conflict
00:51:20against a country
00:51:21of 90 million people
00:51:23in the Middle East?
00:51:25To repeat again,
00:51:26unless this operation
00:51:27succeeds quickly,
00:51:29this has
00:51:31all of the appearance
00:51:32of a debacle
00:51:34about it
00:51:35and for the moment
00:51:37all of the facts
00:51:40that I see
00:51:41point to
00:51:43a debacle,
00:51:45a long-term debacle
00:51:47rather than a success.
00:51:50And as for the idea,
00:51:51that the Iranians
00:51:54are going to be
00:51:54pressured
00:51:55into concessions,
00:51:57the Iranians
00:51:57have already
00:51:58said that they're
00:51:59pulling out
00:52:00of the meeting
00:52:01on Sunday
00:52:02in Oman,
00:52:05the meeting
00:52:05with Wyckoff
00:52:06and I understand
00:52:08that there's now
00:52:08serious talk
00:52:10in Iran
00:52:11of Iran
00:52:12pulling out
00:52:13of the nuclear
00:52:13non-proliferation
00:52:14treaty,
00:52:15which I suspect
00:52:17the Russians
00:52:18and the Chinese
00:52:18are going to beg
00:52:19the Iranians
00:52:20not to do.
00:52:21But if the Iranians
00:52:22do it,
00:52:23I would not
00:52:24be surprised.
00:52:25And that,
00:52:26of course,
00:52:27would take us
00:52:27down a whole new
00:52:30disastrous
00:52:31situation
00:52:33where the Americans
00:52:34and the Israelis
00:52:35really are
00:52:37going to find
00:52:38themselves
00:52:38facing the prospect
00:52:40of an Iranian
00:52:42nuclear bomb
00:52:43with all of the
00:52:45difficult decisions
00:52:46that they're going
00:52:47to have to make
00:52:48about how they're
00:52:49going to deal
00:52:50with it.
00:52:51Anyway,
00:52:51that is the
00:52:52situation at the
00:52:53moment in the
00:52:54Middle East,
00:52:55the conflict
00:52:56between Israel
00:52:58and Iran.
00:53:00I don't think
00:53:02anybody
00:53:03within the
00:53:05administration
00:53:06has thought it
00:53:08through.
00:53:08how could
00:53:10they
00:53:10when nobody
00:53:11is properly
00:53:13discussing this
00:53:14amongst each
00:53:15other.
00:53:17And it
00:53:18would be very
00:53:18interesting to
00:53:19see,
00:53:19to put it
00:53:20mildly,
00:53:21how this
00:53:22shapes out
00:53:23and whether
00:53:24the diplomatic
00:53:25steps being
00:53:26taken by
00:53:27people like
00:53:27MBS
00:53:28and possibly
00:53:30Vladimir Putin
00:53:31finally bring
00:53:34us all to
00:53:34our senses
00:53:35and end
00:53:36this conflict
00:53:37before further
00:53:38damage is done.
00:53:40There's one
00:53:40final point I
00:53:41do want to
00:53:42make and it
00:53:43is one that
00:53:43again people
00:53:44bring up,
00:53:44which is why
00:53:45did Iran
00:53:46agree to
00:53:46negotiate with
00:53:47the United
00:53:48States at
00:53:48all?
00:53:49Why does
00:53:49Russia agree
00:53:50to negotiate
00:53:51with Ukraine?
00:53:53People, I
00:53:53think, get
00:53:54overworked about
00:53:56this.
00:53:57Every single
00:53:57conflict that I
00:53:58can think of
00:53:59since the end
00:54:01of the Second
00:54:02World War
00:54:02involves
00:54:03negotiations.
00:54:05I cannot
00:54:06see what
00:54:07benefit either
00:54:08Russia or
00:54:09Iran would
00:54:11derive from
00:54:13refusing to
00:54:15negotiate in
00:54:16the one case
00:54:17with Ukraine
00:54:18and in the
00:54:20second case
00:54:20with the
00:54:21United States.
00:54:22In the case
00:54:23of Iran
00:54:24especially,
00:54:25refusing to
00:54:25conduct
00:54:26negotiations,
00:54:27it seems to
00:54:28me would
00:54:28have further
00:54:29invited military
00:54:31action and
00:54:33sanctions upon
00:54:34Iran
00:54:35was potentially
00:54:37losing Iran
00:54:39friends.
00:54:40And I can't
00:54:41see why Iran
00:54:43would do that
00:54:44if the
00:54:46Russians or
00:54:47the Iranians
00:54:49had made
00:54:50unwise
00:54:51concessions
00:54:52before coming
00:54:55to an
00:54:57agreement,
00:54:58an agreement
00:54:58which, by the
00:54:59way, both
00:55:00with Ukraine
00:55:01as we
00:55:02shall see
00:55:02and with
00:55:04the United
00:55:04States for
00:55:05Iran, is
00:55:06completely out
00:55:07of sight now.
00:55:08If the
00:55:09Russians and
00:55:10the Iranians
00:55:12had made
00:55:12unwise
00:55:14concessions,
00:55:16like, say,
00:55:17in the case of
00:55:18the Russians
00:55:18agreeing to a
00:55:2030-day ceasefire,
00:55:21or in the
00:55:22case of the
00:55:23Iranians,
00:55:25agreeing to
00:55:26cease nuclear
00:55:28enrichment and
00:55:30open more of
00:55:31their sites to
00:55:32inspection,
00:55:33then I can see
00:55:34that there might
00:55:34have been a
00:55:35point.
00:55:36But the fact
00:55:36is that the
00:55:37Iranians and
00:55:38the Russians
00:55:38have made no
00:55:39such concessions.
00:55:41All they have
00:55:41done is talk
00:55:42and I can't
00:55:44really see how
00:55:45that can be
00:55:46faulted or why
00:55:48that was wrong.
00:55:48In the case
00:55:50of Iran,
00:55:52the fact
00:55:53that this
00:55:54attack took
00:55:54place
00:55:55immediately
00:55:56before a
00:55:58meeting between
00:55:59the United
00:55:59States and
00:56:01Iran
00:56:02was due
00:56:04to happen,
00:56:06well, that
00:56:07puts them
00:56:08in a stronger
00:56:10legal and
00:56:11diplomatic
00:56:12position.
00:56:14As Vladimir
00:56:14Putin appears
00:56:16to have pointed
00:56:17out,
00:56:17to Benjamin
00:56:19Netanyahu
00:56:20over the
00:56:21course of
00:56:21their call
00:56:22yesterday.
00:56:24Anyway, let's
00:56:25move on and
00:56:26let's now turn
00:56:26to the other
00:56:27conflict,
00:56:28which is the
00:56:29one in Ukraine
00:56:30where,
00:56:31interestingly
00:56:31enough, we
00:56:31are having
00:56:32some important
00:56:34developments.
00:56:34The first is
00:56:35that exactly
00:56:37as the
00:56:38Ukrainian
00:56:39intelligence
00:56:40chief,
00:56:40Kirill
00:56:41Obudan,
00:56:42said,
00:56:43despite an
00:56:45enormous degree
00:56:46of reluctance
00:56:47to do so
00:56:48on the part
00:56:49of the
00:56:49Ukrainians,
00:56:50they have
00:56:50now started
00:56:51to accept
00:56:52the bodies
00:56:54of Ukrainian
00:56:57soldiers
00:56:58that are
00:57:00being returned
00:57:01to Ukraine
00:57:02from Russia.
00:57:03in Proud,
00:57:05the British
00:57:06diplomat,
00:57:07has an
00:57:07excellent
00:57:08piece about
00:57:09this on
00:57:10his blog,
00:57:12The
00:57:12Peacemonger,
00:57:13which I
00:57:14would strongly
00:57:14advise people
00:57:15to read.
00:57:16It discusses
00:57:17all of this
00:57:18in great detail
00:57:19and explains
00:57:21some of the
00:57:22reasons why
00:57:23Ukraine was
00:57:24probably deeply
00:57:25reluctant to
00:57:26accept these
00:57:26bodies.
00:57:27But anyway,
00:57:28it is now
00:57:29happening,
00:57:29and as I
00:57:31said,
00:57:31the Ukrainians
00:57:32seem to be
00:57:32very grudging
00:57:34and unhappy
00:57:35about the
00:57:36whole operation,
00:57:39though they're
00:57:40also,
00:57:40it should be
00:57:40said,
00:57:41going ahead
00:57:42with the
00:57:42prisoner exchange
00:57:44as well.
00:57:46But all
00:57:47of this
00:57:48is coming
00:57:49with further
00:57:50strong
00:57:51statements
00:57:52from Zelensky
00:57:54and Zbiga,
00:57:55the Ukrainian
00:57:56foreign
00:57:57minister,
00:57:57which makes
00:57:59it clear
00:58:00that Ukraine
00:58:01has in
00:58:02effect pulled
00:58:03out of the
00:58:04Istanbul
00:58:04talks.
00:58:06Zelensky
00:58:06says that
00:58:07the Istanbul
00:58:07talks are
00:58:08leading nowhere,
00:58:09he's not
00:58:10interested in
00:58:10them anymore,
00:58:11all he's
00:58:12getting are
00:58:13ultimatums
00:58:13from the
00:58:14Russians,
00:58:15the talks,
00:58:16Ukraine's
00:58:17participation
00:58:18in the
00:58:19talks has
00:58:20accordingly
00:58:21finished,
00:58:23and the
00:58:24only
00:58:24circumstance
00:58:25in which
00:58:26Ukraine is
00:58:27now prepared
00:58:28to talk
00:58:29to the
00:58:29Russians
00:58:30at all,
00:58:31is if
00:58:33the Russians
00:58:33come round
00:58:34and start
00:58:35talking about
00:58:37a ceasefire.
00:58:39That is all
00:58:39he is prepared
00:58:40to concede,
00:58:42he is not
00:58:42prepared to
00:58:43concede
00:58:44anything
00:58:45substantive
00:58:46whatsoever.
00:58:48I
00:58:49expect
00:58:50that that
00:58:51is going
00:58:52to remain
00:58:53to remain
00:58:53the Ukrainian
00:58:54position,
00:58:55regardless
00:58:56of what
00:58:57happens
00:58:58on the
00:58:58battlefields,
00:59:00even if
00:59:00the Russians
00:59:01not only
00:59:02reach the
00:59:03Dnieper,
00:59:04but actually
00:59:05cross it,
00:59:06even if they
00:59:07start capturing
00:59:08Odessa and
00:59:09places like
00:59:10that,
00:59:11even if the
00:59:12Russian army
00:59:12reaches the
00:59:14gates of
00:59:14Kiev itself,
00:59:16even if
00:59:17Zelensky
00:59:18flees
00:59:19Ukraine
00:59:20and establishes
00:59:22his government
00:59:23in exile
00:59:24in perhaps
00:59:25London,
00:59:26I don't
00:59:27believe that
00:59:28Zelensky,
00:59:30whilst he remains
00:59:31president of
00:59:31Ukraine,
00:59:32is ever going
00:59:34to make the
00:59:35kind of necessary
00:59:36concessions
00:59:37needed to end
00:59:38the war,
00:59:39and I
00:59:41suspect that
00:59:42in that
00:59:43stance,
00:59:44he is going
00:59:44to continue
00:59:45to get
00:59:45his support
00:59:47from his
00:59:49European
00:59:49friends.
00:59:51Ian Proud,
00:59:51by the way,
00:59:52has written
00:59:53also another
00:59:54follow-up
00:59:54piece,
00:59:56speculating
00:59:57that one
00:59:58of the
00:59:58reasons that
00:59:59the Europeans
01:00:00want to
01:00:02prolong the
01:00:02war in
01:00:03Ukraine is
01:00:04that they
01:00:04don't want
01:00:05to act on
01:00:06their promises
01:00:06that Ukraine
01:00:08joined the
01:00:08European Union
01:00:09because they
01:00:10know that
01:00:11such a thing
01:00:12would be
01:00:14completely
01:00:14unaffordable
01:00:15and might
01:00:16bankrupt the
01:00:17European Union
01:00:18and precipitate
01:00:20its collapse.
01:00:21If that is
01:00:22true,
01:00:23and I'm not
01:00:23saying it's
01:00:24not true,
01:00:25then that is
01:00:25one of the
01:00:25most cynical
01:00:26and deplorable
01:00:27things I
01:00:29have ever
01:00:29heard.
01:00:31All I
01:00:31would say
01:00:32is there's
01:00:34lots of
01:00:35cynicism
01:00:36around in
01:00:38the international
01:00:38system at
01:00:40the moment
01:00:40and the
01:00:42fact that it
01:00:42might be
01:00:43cynical and
01:00:43deplorable
01:00:44doesn't mean
01:00:46that it isn't
01:00:46true, and
01:00:47if it is
01:00:48true, it
01:00:49wouldn't
01:00:49surprise me.
01:00:51Anyway, let's
01:00:52actually now
01:00:53move on and
01:00:53discuss the
01:00:54military situation
01:00:55on the
01:00:56battlefields, and
01:00:57I'm going to
01:00:57do it briefly
01:00:58because obviously
01:00:59I've had to
01:01:00devote most of
01:01:01this programme
01:01:01to the
01:01:02situation in
01:01:03the Middle
01:01:03East to
01:01:04the unfolding
01:01:05disaster that
01:01:07we're going to
01:01:07see there, a
01:01:08disaster by the
01:01:09way which has
01:01:10its humanitarian
01:01:11dimension as
01:01:12well.
01:01:14Obviously, the
01:01:15conflict in
01:01:16Gaza continues,
01:01:18the Israeli
01:01:20siege of
01:01:21Gaza continues,
01:01:23I understand
01:01:24that many
01:01:25Israelis still
01:01:26have not felt
01:01:27able to return
01:01:29to northern
01:01:30Israel, not
01:01:30that I put that
01:01:31on anything
01:01:32like the same
01:01:32level as the
01:01:33situation in
01:01:34Gaza, and
01:01:35of course, it's
01:01:36increasingly looking
01:01:37as if, far from
01:01:39resolving Israel's
01:01:40problems, the
01:01:41collapse of the
01:01:42Assad government
01:01:43in Syria has
01:01:44simply opened up
01:01:45another front for
01:01:46Israel to fight
01:01:47on, which is
01:01:49what we're starting
01:01:49to see play out
01:01:51there.
01:01:52But anyway, I've
01:01:53had to spend most
01:01:54of this programme
01:01:55talking about that,
01:01:56so I'm not going
01:01:56to have the same
01:01:57amount of time as
01:01:59I should do
01:01:59discussing the
01:02:01situation on the
01:02:03Ukrainian battlefields
01:02:04and what we would
01:02:05like to do.
01:02:06Can I say that, in
01:02:07fact, over the
01:02:08last 48 hours, we're
01:02:10now starting to see
01:02:11a decisive shift?
01:02:14The Wall Street
01:02:15Journal has already
01:02:16said that in May,
01:02:19Russia captured
01:02:20more Ukrainian
01:02:21territory than it
01:02:23has done in any
01:02:25single month since
01:02:27since the first
01:02:28few months, the
01:02:30first two months
01:02:31of the special
01:02:32military operation,
01:02:34since February
01:02:35and March
01:02:372022, in other
01:02:39words.
01:02:40I've been making
01:02:41this point in many
01:02:43programmes that,
01:02:46contrary to this
01:02:47being an incremental
01:02:49Russian advance,
01:02:51the Russian offensive
01:02:52is continuing to
01:02:53gain momentum,
01:02:54and we are
01:02:56starting to see
01:02:57this play out
01:02:58all over the
01:03:00battlefield.
01:03:02Not only have the
01:03:03Russians made
01:03:04significant progress
01:03:05in Sumi region,
01:03:08especially since the
01:03:09capture there of
01:03:11the village of
01:03:13Yablunovka,
01:03:14but they have made
01:03:17significant advances
01:03:18in the northwest
01:03:20of the Oskol
01:03:24River, where they
01:03:25established their
01:03:26bridgehead some
01:03:26months ago,
01:03:28they apparently are
01:03:29now advancing
01:03:30towards Kupiansk
01:03:32also from the
01:03:33east, but the
01:03:35consensus now seems
01:03:37to be that the
01:03:39major priority for
01:03:40the Russians in
01:03:41Kharkiv region is
01:03:43to capture the
01:03:44whole of northeast
01:03:45Kharkiv region.
01:03:47putting the
01:03:50Russians in a
01:03:52strong position
01:03:53to attack the
01:03:54city of Kharkiv
01:03:56itself, which
01:03:58would be a
01:03:59critical event for
01:04:00Ukraine, were
01:04:02it ever to
01:04:02happen.
01:04:04Elsewhere, it
01:04:06looks as if the
01:04:07Russians have now
01:04:08conclusively captured
01:04:10the village of
01:04:12Grigorovka,
01:04:14northeast of
01:04:17Siversk, they
01:04:18already now
01:04:19control the
01:04:21other village of
01:04:22Erko-Kamianska,
01:04:24and there are
01:04:25reports also that
01:04:26the Russians have
01:04:27reached and are
01:04:29storming another
01:04:31village immediately
01:04:33to the north of
01:04:34Siversk, called
01:04:35Serebjanka.
01:04:38It is widely
01:04:39acknowledged that if
01:04:40the Russians capture
01:04:41all of these three
01:04:42villages, the
01:04:44Ukrainian
01:04:46position, the
01:04:47Ukrainian
01:04:47defenses in
01:04:48Siversk, will
01:04:50start to
01:04:51become
01:04:52collapse, and
01:04:55of course, there
01:04:56continue to be
01:04:57claims that the
01:04:58Russians control
01:04:59Torskia to the
01:05:00east of
01:05:03Siversk,
01:05:05though there are
01:05:06other claims that
01:05:06the Ukrainians have
01:05:07retaken Torskia,
01:05:10claims which, by the
01:05:11way, I don't
01:05:11myself believe.
01:05:12But anyway, that's
01:05:13been reported by
01:05:14some Ukrainian
01:05:16channels.
01:05:17But anyway, all of
01:05:18this is bad, but
01:05:20far, far worse is
01:05:22what is happening in
01:05:23other places.
01:05:24Firstly, yesterday,
01:05:26Redovka all but
01:05:28said that the
01:05:29Battle of
01:05:30Chasov-Yar is
01:05:31now over.
01:05:32They say that the
01:05:33Russians not only
01:05:35control around
01:05:3695% of
01:05:37Chasov-Yar, but
01:05:39that they are
01:05:40preparing to make
01:05:41further advances
01:05:42west of
01:05:45Chasov-Yar, and
01:05:47that the
01:05:48remaining Ukrainian
01:05:49defenders of the
01:05:51few remaining
01:05:52buildings on the
01:05:54western outskirts of
01:05:56Chasov-Yar are
01:05:58going to have no
01:05:58option soon but to
01:06:00retreat.
01:06:02Well, all that is
01:06:03bad enough, but
01:06:04perhaps much worse is
01:06:05what is happening
01:06:06south of
01:06:07Konstantinovka, and
01:06:09here I'm going to
01:06:10say that some
01:06:11genuine mystery is
01:06:14unfolding because
01:06:16it's a mystery that
01:06:17the Russians
01:06:18themselves are
01:06:19talking about.
01:06:20South of
01:06:20Konstantinovka, there
01:06:22is a large water
01:06:23reservoir called
01:06:27the, I believe it's
01:06:29the Kilmanbik
01:06:31reservoir.
01:06:33well, I may be
01:06:34getting its name
01:06:35wrong, I
01:06:35probably am.
01:06:37Now, the
01:06:38point is that
01:06:40the Ukrainians have
01:06:42been attempting
01:06:44to hold all
01:06:45kinds of
01:06:45positions south
01:06:47of this
01:06:48reservoir.
01:06:50This is the
01:06:51area where, from
01:06:52which the
01:06:52Ukrainians attempted
01:06:53a few weeks
01:06:55ago their
01:06:56various counter
01:06:57attacks to
01:06:58try to
01:06:59recapture parts
01:07:01of Toretsk, the
01:07:03counter-attacks
01:07:04which were
01:07:04intended to
01:07:05persuade people
01:07:06in the west
01:07:07that the
01:07:08battle of
01:07:10Toretsk was
01:07:11still underway.
01:07:13And for the
01:07:15moment it seems
01:07:15the Ukrainians are
01:07:16not withdrawing
01:07:17from this area
01:07:18south of this
01:07:19reservoir.
01:07:20And several
01:07:23thousand Ukrainian
01:07:25troops, by most
01:07:27accounts, are
01:07:28located there.
01:07:29the trouble
01:07:30is that the
01:07:32reservoir is
01:07:34by definition
01:07:35an all but
01:07:37impassable
01:07:38obstacle.
01:07:40If the
01:07:41Ukrainians have
01:07:42to retreat
01:07:43north, the
01:07:44reservoir is
01:07:46in their way.
01:07:47The trouble
01:07:48is that the
01:07:50Russians are
01:07:51now very
01:07:51close to
01:07:53reaching the
01:07:54eastern end
01:07:57of the
01:07:58reservoir and
01:08:00they are
01:08:00not far
01:08:01from the
01:08:02western end
01:08:03of the
01:08:04reservoir
01:08:04either.
01:08:06And it
01:08:07seems as if
01:08:08the Russians
01:08:08already have
01:08:09effective
01:08:10artillery and
01:08:12drone control
01:08:13of any
01:08:14remaining escape
01:08:15routes that
01:08:15the Ukrainian
01:08:16troops could
01:08:17use to
01:08:18flee their
01:08:19positions south
01:08:20of this
01:08:21reservoir.
01:08:21is as if
01:08:23the Ukrainian
01:08:24command has
01:08:26decided to
01:08:27sacrifice these
01:08:29troops south
01:08:30of the
01:08:30reservoir by
01:08:32leaving them
01:08:33in some kind
01:08:35of a
01:08:35cauldron.
01:08:37Quite what the
01:08:38logic of doing
01:08:39this is, I am
01:08:41completely unsure.
01:08:43Whether it's
01:08:44intended to buy
01:08:45time, I can't
01:08:47understand.
01:08:47But since
01:08:49these are
01:08:49veteran Ukrainian
01:08:51troops, and
01:08:53since Ukraine is
01:08:54having a
01:08:54recruitment crisis,
01:08:55I simply don't
01:08:56understand the
01:08:57logic of it, and
01:08:59I don't think
01:08:59anybody else can.
01:09:01And, well, all
01:09:02of that is pretty
01:09:03terrible altogether,
01:09:05but yesterday
01:09:06there were
01:09:08reports that the
01:09:10Russians have
01:09:10also captured
01:09:12more territory
01:09:13to the
01:09:15northeast of
01:09:17Bakrovsk, that
01:09:21they have to
01:09:22be precise
01:09:23captured a
01:09:24village called
01:09:24Koptievo, which
01:09:26is located
01:09:27considerably to
01:09:28the northeast
01:09:29of Bakrovsk.
01:09:33It looks to
01:09:34me again as
01:09:35if the
01:09:35encirclement
01:09:36of Bakrovsk,
01:09:39or rather,
01:09:40perhaps one
01:09:40should say more
01:09:41accurately, the
01:09:42encirclement of
01:09:43the Ukrainian
01:09:44troops in
01:09:44Bakrovsk is
01:09:46now well
01:09:47underway, and
01:09:49maybe there is
01:09:50some logic in the
01:09:51Ukrainians still
01:09:52holding on to
01:09:53Bakrovsk, but
01:09:55again, I wonder
01:09:57whether Zelensky and
01:09:59Sirsky are ever
01:10:01going to pull them
01:10:01out in time.
01:10:03This is a much
01:10:05more dangerous
01:10:06encirclement
01:10:07situation than the
01:10:09one the Ukrainians
01:10:10faced in
01:10:11Bakrovsk, for
01:10:12example, back
01:10:13in 2023, and
01:10:16I don't see
01:10:17any sign that
01:10:19the Ukrainians are
01:10:20doing anything to
01:10:22prevent it.
01:10:24And we now
01:10:27not only have
01:10:28abundant footage
01:10:31confirming Russian
01:10:33control of the
01:10:34important fortified
01:10:36town of
01:10:37Komar,
01:10:40in the, if you
01:10:42like, in the
01:10:42southwest Donbass
01:10:43area, but I've
01:10:45noticed that the
01:10:46Ukrainians themselves,
01:10:47Ukrainian reports
01:10:48themselves, are
01:10:50acknowledging that the
01:10:53Russian advance in
01:10:54Dnepropetrovsk region
01:10:56is not only
01:10:58faster than we
01:11:02have seen
01:11:02previously in
01:11:03Donbass, but
01:11:05the absence of
01:11:08fortifications of
01:11:11dense urban
01:11:15landscapes such as
01:11:16there are in
01:11:18Donbass, of
01:11:20natural obstacles,
01:11:22rivers and streams,
01:11:23and forests, all
01:11:25but guarantee that
01:11:27the Russian advance
01:11:28in Dnepropetrovsk region
01:11:30is going to be
01:11:31even faster.
01:11:34Again, we are
01:11:38looking at what
01:11:42is starting to
01:11:43appear like an
01:11:45irresistible Russian
01:11:46advance in this
01:11:48area, one that is
01:11:49gaining territory by
01:11:51kilometers.
01:11:53every single day.
01:11:55Now, I remember
01:11:56saying back in the
01:11:57summer of last year,
01:11:59at the time of the
01:12:00collapse of Ukrainian
01:12:01defenses west of
01:12:05Devka, that
01:12:08there didn't seem to
01:12:10me to be a full
01:12:12acknowledgement in the
01:12:13west of quite how
01:12:14bad the situation for
01:12:17the Ukrainian army was
01:12:18becoming.
01:12:18happening, and it
01:12:20seems to me that
01:12:21this is even more
01:12:23true now, except
01:12:26that we are not
01:12:28late in the summer,
01:12:30as it was, as was
01:12:32the case when I said
01:12:33that last year, but
01:12:36we are early in the
01:12:37summer, we're still in
01:12:38June.
01:12:39And if the Russian
01:12:45advance right across
01:12:47the conflict line
01:12:48continues at this
01:12:49rate, at the rate
01:12:51it is going over
01:12:54the last couple of
01:12:57weeks, if it
01:12:58continues like this
01:12:59for the rest of the
01:13:02summer, then I
01:13:05think there's a
01:13:05chance not just
01:13:06the Dnieper, the
01:13:09Dnieper will be
01:13:10reached in its
01:13:12central areas, but
01:13:16that the entire
01:13:17territory of Ukraine
01:13:18east of the Dnieper
01:13:20will be at the
01:13:25very least in
01:13:26jeopardy, but
01:13:28conceivably even
01:13:29lost to Ukraine as
01:13:31well before the end
01:13:33of the year.
01:13:34anyway, this is
01:13:36where I finish my
01:13:37programme today,
01:13:38there'll be more
01:13:38from me soon,
01:13:39obviously, let me
01:13:40remind you again
01:13:41that you can find
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01:14:09That's me for
01:14:10today, more from
01:14:11me soon, have a
01:14:12very good day.
01:14:33I'll see you next time.
01:14:35I'll see you next time.