Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00We're going to go talk through the layers of who has been assassinated, who they are,
00:05the nuclear scientists including, and some other sites as well.
00:07But I want to go first to Tara Kangaloo, a friend of the program,
00:11global affairs journalist, adjunct professor at Georgetown University,
00:14author as well of The Heartbeat of Iran.
00:16Great to have you on the program with us, Tara.
00:18First of all, when we're looking at the rhetoric from the Iranian leaders right now,
00:24calling this a declaration of war, talking about revenge and the Syrian's consequences,
00:29give me your reading.
00:33Absolutely.
00:35And as your other great guests have been mentioning,
00:38Iranian government officials, I think, live in this disillusioned bubble.
00:45Quite frankly, Iran is at its weakest right now.
00:48They have nothing to fight back with to an extent that they weren't even able to intercept the attacks
00:55at some of the most sensitive places, including nuclear sites.
01:01Just minutes ago, minutes before I come on air, the Fardo site, again,
01:06one of the most important nuclear sites, has been hit.
01:10It has been confirmed.
01:11Reports of explosions are now, as we speak, being heard both on the east and west of Iran.
01:18I was just, again, minutes ago, speaking to a journalist, a colleague in Iran,
01:23and he was telling me, Tara, there cannot be any more chaotic moment in Iran's recent history.
01:33There are talks of retaliation, but quite frankly, in his words,
01:38being on the ground in one of the most prominent newsrooms in Iran,
01:41he said they are scrambling psychologically.
01:45They are weak capability-wise.
01:49Militarily, they are at their weakest.
01:52They're still scrambling to know what they are dealing with, let alone retaliate.
01:58Now, again, earlier today, we saw some drones going toward Israel, again, intercepted over Jordan.
02:07So this boastful rhetorics of retaliation, quite frankly,
02:13I'm not sure if they are as strong as the Iranian leaders are making them sound.
02:19No, it's interesting, because you and I have spoken recently,
02:22and you talked about, certainly with the decapitation, effectively, of Hezbollah in Lebanon,
02:26and how much of an effect that potentially has been.
02:29And to this instance, lots of questions, and we'll talk again with Noga and Catherine, too,
02:34about why now, suggestions that President Trump, he had suggested himself,
02:38that he'd been told about this, he hadn't given the go-ahead,
02:41and he's since said this is excellent news, saying make a deal.
02:44Where do you think this plays with the current talks underway?
02:49Trump saying that there's still this sixth round of talks, still scheduled for Sunday,
02:53it hasn't been cancelled yet.
02:54I mean, Whitcoff is saying it's not cancelled.
02:58Aroch, she hasn't officially said it's cancelled,
03:01but reports are indicating that the Iranians are cancelling it.
03:05But again, Iran is not coming at anything from a position of power.
03:09They are coming at this from an extreme position of weakness.
03:13Now, Iranian government and the regime understands that they don't have the capacity
03:18to get into a full-scale war with Israel.
03:21Because as we all know, going to an all-out war with Israel means an all-out war with the United States.
03:29And again, Iran cannot compete with that.
03:31Russia, China are in no shape or form going to come to Iran's rescue.
03:35Gulf countries, including Saudi and Qatar, have indicated that we don't want an all-out war.
03:42So, what leverage Iran has?
03:46Pretty much nothing, right?
03:48So, are they going to come back to the negotiation and negotiating table?
03:52Quite frankly, it's to their benefit, because otherwise, their days are numbered.
03:59So many people in Iran want to see that.
04:01But strategically, militarily, they don't have the strength that they did a year ago, even at this moment.
04:11Tora, what do you make of a number of senior analysts, including the former head of MI5 in the UK,
04:17who said this is a massive gamble.
04:19It can go one of two ways.
04:20One, that they can set Iran back one, two years.
04:24He says there are a few analysts that are looking at the possibility of completely dismantling nuclear capabilities
04:29towards weaponising it, or this just sets a speed of flow,
04:35the determination of those hawks within Iran to build something quickly, regardless.
04:42To make this quick, because it is a complex discussion,
04:44to make it quick, based on, again, reports that are coming out of Iran,
04:48but also Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, he did say that they hit Natanz.
04:54That has been confirmed, again, a hugely important site for Iran's nuclear programme.
04:59So, some serious damage to the infrastructure that is going to deter from Iran's progress
05:06in their nuclear programme, some blow by the killing of the scientists.
05:12But mind you, Iran, over the years, as restrictions and inspection over its nuclear programme
05:19has been reduced because the United States pulled out of the JCPOA,
05:22there were no oversight, right?
05:24So, they went deeper and deeper and deeper underground.
05:27So, who knows what they have, you know, metres and metres down under.
05:32But, exactly as you said, it can go one way or another.
05:36One thing I can say is that hitting nuclear sites, as IAEA Chief Grossi said earlier,
05:43is dangerous for everyone.
05:45For the environment, its impact is going to last for generations,
05:49for Iranians, but also the region.
05:51Again, no one in the neighbourhood wants Iranian nuclear sites,
05:55which, by the way, are not just one or two, quite a few of them, to be hit.
05:59And we have a huge nuclear spill.
06:01So, the stakes are very high.
06:04Israel keeps pounding Iran from all sites.
06:08They said it's going to take two weeks.
06:10So, we'll see what happens.
06:11But, once again, stakes are extremely high.
06:14Now, I know you've got a number of US networks you're also speaking to this afternoon.
06:18I won't keep you, Tara, too long.
06:19What I would like to ask from you is your sense,
06:22all of the US networks this week,
06:24there were reports, I think, as early as Thursday,
06:26that was something being planned.
06:28Was your sense it was going to be this soon?
06:34One thing I can say, again, having been covering this issue for many years,
06:38is that there is always one person who does not want diplomacy between Iran and the United States,
06:46and that is Benjamin Netanyahu.
06:49He, at any moment where Iran and the United States have been close to any deal,
06:54any rapprochement, any engagement, he stepped in and torpedoed it.
06:59During the JCPOA, he didn't have luck with the Obama administration,
07:03but as soon as Trump and his crew came in, he lobbied and he influenced then-Trump administration
07:10to pull out of the JCPOA.
07:13And, again, we are 24 hours away from the, what is it,
07:17the sixth round of talks between Iran and US, and this happened.
07:22If you ask the Iranians, they would say that the papers that were presented to the IAEA,
07:27again, 24 hours ago, were from the Israeli Mossad.
07:33Why now?
07:34Why did they present these papers to say that the Iranian stockpile
07:40and uranium enrichment levels are at such high level to create a bomb, right?
07:46So these are the questions that are worth asking.
07:48But, again, it was inevitable that the Israeli prime minister is extremely unhappy
07:56with the talks that have been going on,
08:00especially given the enthusiasm shown by President Donald Trump.
08:05And if I may just say one last thing,
08:07I don't want to take time from your other guests in the program,
08:11but, again, in the middle of all of our nearly 90 million ordinary Iranian people
08:16who are so tired of this back and forth between the regime inside Iran
08:23who has been choking them, oppressing them for years, and also the West.
08:28It's really these people who are suffering the most,
08:31and I think it's important to bring awareness to that as well.
08:36Tora, good to talk to you on France 24 this evening.
08:38Tora Kangaloo, global affairs journalist,
08:40adjunct professor at Georgetown University
08:42and author of The Heartbeat of Iran.
08:44We'll speak to you soon.
08:45Let me...