Can India defeat China in a full-fledged war? How is this possible? Travel@Azamsyed

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Transcript

00:00As tensions rise between India and China, especially after the recent clashes in Ladakh,

00:05there is a growing debate in India about its preparedness to face a full-scale war with China.

00:11The question that many Indians are asking is, can India defeat China in a war? And if yes,

00:18how? This is a question that has been debated a lot by military experts and veterans.

00:24But we thought of putting it before our audience and letting them decide for themselves.

00:29So in this episode of Gravitas Plus, we'll look at the Indian and Chinese armies and try to find

00:35out who will win if the two were to go to war. Hello and welcome to this segment. To answer this

00:42question, we must first look at the current strength of both armies. As of 2023, China has the second

00:49largest army in the world, just behind North Korea, with over 900,000 active soldiers. Out of these,

00:57almost 60,000 are women. India is not too far behind. It has the second largest army in Asia,

01:04with over 440,000 active soldiers. In terms of expenditure, China is not among the top 10

01:10countries in the world. It spends less than 3% of its GDP on its military. In fact, it is one of the

01:17lowest among major powers. India is not far behind. It also spends around 2% of its GDP on the military.

01:25So on paper, China's army is more than double the size of India's. But does that mean China would

01:31easily beat India in a war? Not necessarily. War is not won only by numbers. Strategy, training,

01:38technology, and motivation also play a very important role. Let's start with strategy.

01:44China believes in an offensive strategy. Their idea is to attack the enemy before they can attack you.

01:50This strategy has worked for them in the past. In the 1979 war with Vietnam, or the recent skirmishes

01:58with India in Ladakh, China attacked first. India, on the other hand, believes in a defensive strategy.

02:05The idea is to defend Indian territory and not to attack the opponent. This may sound negative,

02:12but remember, defense is the strongest form of attack. Just ask Israel or Ukraine.

02:19Both countries have been constantly attacked by their neighbors, yet they have managed to hold

02:24their ground, now coming to training. According to reports, China has over 200 military training centers,

02:30while India has only 49. So in terms of training, the Chinese army gets more done. Also, China gets

02:38bonus points for motivation. Soldiers in the People's Liberation Army are considered to be highly

02:44motivated. They are given special benefits like higher salaries, better living conditions,

02:50free education for their children, among others. Indian soldiers are also well-trained and motivated.

02:56But we have a problem. India's army is short of 60,000 soldiers. Having said that, let's come

03:02back to the question of numbers. Can India compensate for the lack of numbers through strategy and

03:08technology? Well, if the situation comes down to it, it certainly can. For starters, India has fought and

03:17won wars against countries with much stronger armies. In 1965, 1971, and 1999, Pakistan had the edge

03:26in numbers. In all three wars, India won. The Cargill War was perhaps the closest. India had to depend on

03:34outside help to win that one. But the point remains, India has beaten bigger armies in the past.

03:41But what about China? Which countries has China fought wars with?

03:45When was the last time the Chinese army was tested? The last time China fought a full-scale war was in

03:511979 against Vietnam. China won that war in just 28 days. After that, there has been no major war.

04:00Yes, China fought a border skirmish with India in 1962. It also fought a three-week-long war with India

04:08and Pakistan in 1965. But those were not full-scale wars. At best, they were border incursions.

04:16Also, those wars took place over six decades ago. So it's hard to say if the Chinese army is battle

04:22ready. Then came the Galwan Valley clashes of 2020. The violent face-offs along the line of actual

04:30control resulted in casualties on both sides. But it was not a war. What we can take away from the

04:37Galwan clashes is that the Chinese army seemed caught off guard. They did not expect such fierce

04:43resistance from the Indian side. What this means is that China's army, which is built for quick

04:50offensive maneuvers, is not well equipped for a longer engagement. In the case of India, the army

04:57is battle-tested. Apart from the wars with Pakistan, India has also fought the 1962 war with China.

05:04It lost that war, but not without giving China a tough fight. Ever since, the Indian army has undergone

05:11massive transformation. We have made significant improvements in terms of strategy, training,

05:17and technology. What about the nuclear card? Many believe that if India and China go to war,

05:24then the nuclear card could be played. But remember, both countries are nuclear powers. If one fires a

05:31nuke, the other will retaliate. In that case, it is not a strategic advantage. So you see, despite being

05:38outnumbered, India can beat China in a war. It all boils down to strategy and planning. Remember,

05:46war is not fought only with numbers. It is one with strategies, tactics, and skill.

05:52Now if the war is limited to conventional weapons, then things become difficult for India. Let's look

05:58at some estimates. Chinese tanks VS. Indian tanks. China has over 2,700 main battle tanks.

06:06India has 981. Chinese artillery guns vs. Indian artillery guns. China has 7,500 of them. India has

06:16just 423. Chinese fighter jets vs. Indian fighter jets. So if the war is only conventional, China has a

06:25clear edge over India. Then comes the nuclear option. Like I mentioned earlier, both sides know that if one

06:32fires a nuke, the other will retaliate. So the threat of nuclear attack will always be there.

06:39It will be hanging like the sword of Damocles. So a direct war between India and China seems unlikely.

06:46That leaves us with the question, what if the war is not direct but indirect? What if China attacks

06:51India through Pakistan or Nepal or via a proxy war in Sri Lanka? Well, in that case,

06:58the rules of the game change. India will be forced to adopt a multi-pronged strategy.

07:04The army will have to protect the borders on multiple fronts at the same time.

07:08That will be a tough task. But India has done it before. During the 1971 war, India was simultaneously

07:16fighting Pakistan on two fronts, in the west and in the east. At the same time, India was also battling

07:24the elements. Most of the war was fought during winter. There were floods, landslides, and swollen

07:31rivers. Despite all this, India managed to beat Pakistan. So if it comes down to a choice between

07:38India and China, who will win? My money is on India. Our army is battle-tested. They've seen wars and

07:46they know how to win them. The Indian armed forces have also fought in extremely difficult terrain,

07:52be it high-altitude deserts or dense forests or in water. So where does that leave China?

07:58Their army may be huge, but it lacks experience. Again, this is a general assessment. One cannot

08:05predict with certainty the outcome of a war. And that's the whole point here. We're looking at

08:11probable scenarios, probable outcomes of a war between India and China. There's another important

08:17thing to note. None of the armies in the world today can match the United States. The US army is

08:23the most powerful in the world. It has the most number of nuclear warheads. It also has the most

08:29powerful navy and air force. So if America enters the fray, all bets are off. India may lose to China,

08:37but China stands no chance against the US. In conclusion, if it comes down to a conventional war

08:44between India and China, China will win because of the numbers. But if it comes down to a nuclear war,

08:50then all bets are off. The only winner in that case would be Russia. All the other countries

08:56are non-starters. They stand absolutely no chance.

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