Pete Crow-Armstrong: Overestimated Season Projections?

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00:00a particular player that you don't think is going to be as good as everyone says he currently is

00:06come the end of the season. So let's look at this particular player stretch over the last 34 games.

00:10I'll let you pick it up from here. Look, Pete Crow Armstrong has been terrific. He's fun to

00:15watch. He's got a lot of energy. I like him. I'm not trying to take shots at Pete Crow Armstrong,

00:19but he's on pace currently for 41 homers, 47 steals, and 139 RBI. I just don't think we're

00:26going to get those numbers. You look at his last 34 games coming into the weekend, nine doubles,

00:30three triples, 14 homers, 40 RBI, eight stolen bases. You asked me, Matt, when we were talking

00:36about Juan Soto, if you're going to make a deal for Juan Soto, what are you going to move for Juan

00:39Soto? It's kind of hard to make a deal. Well, I present to you, Pete Crow Armstrong. Now in roto

00:43leagues, you're going to get more power and speed, but in OBP leagues, we're talking about a guy who's

00:47got a hundred point difference, potentially rest of season on base percentage, right? So look at

00:52your league that you're playing in and the situations you're going to be in. I just,

00:56you look at the baseball savant page and our producer, Sam and I were talking about it at

01:00the break here. Yeah, sure. He's, you know, the, the batting average at 272, the expected at 271.

01:05Okay. It's kind of, you know, league average in terms of that, but you start to look at the deeper

01:09metrics, the swing and miss, the, the K rate, the whiff percentage, all that stuff is bad. The walk

01:15percentage, he never walks, right? Currently he's got a 306 OBP last year, 286 OBP. He doesn't get on

01:21base a ton, which means that he has to keep up this incredible contact rate. Doesn't barrel up

01:26nearly as many balls as he should. So there's a lot of metrics. We start digging deeper into

01:31Pete Crow Armstrong that scream out regression. And it's just something I want everybody to

01:35understand that you got Pete Crow Armstrong for a good value in a draft. Awesome. Keep them. But if

01:40you want to flip them for something, now's the time, because this is the peak of his value in keeper

01:43leagues and dynasty leagues. I get, you don't want to move on from him. That's fine. But in redraft,

01:48you have to really look yourself in the mirror and say, is Pete Crow Armstrong going to end up a 40,

01:5240, 140 guy. And I just can't get there, Matt, not with the deeper metrics that are there. I just

01:57can't. And we have a big enough sample size where that's the pace of some of these players now. And I

02:02think it's really interesting to look at pace and then look and say, okay, is this pace attainable

02:07and sustainable? And I think when you look at Pete Crow, the answer is no on both.