Hurricane season officially begins

AccuWeather

Hurricane season begins on June 1. AccuWeather's Jon Porter and Bernie Rayno forecast this upcoming Atlantic season, which is expected to be busy with the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas at higher risk.

Transcript

00:00We issued this, when did we issue this forecast? Was it back in February or early March?

00:04Early March. We did that ahead of other sources so that people could be best prepared and know

00:09that we're going to be concerned about, yet again, another active hurricane season.

00:13Now, when you take a look at the numbers, you can see what we're forecasting, John.

00:18Historical averages on the bottom, middle shows last year.

00:21It does. And once again, we're calling for a active season. Last year, you could see the,

00:27of course, the 30-year historic average for the number of named storms, 14.

00:3118 last year. The call from AccuWeather, Hurricane, and long-range experts this year, 13 to 18.

00:37So near to above average once again. And a look at this, 7 to 10 hurricanes,

00:42which would be near or above the long-term average. 3 to 5 major hurricanes.

00:48And a big column over here, 3 to 6 direct U.S. impacts.

00:52And notice that also is near to above the long-term historic average.

00:59So another busy and impactful hurricane season on the way.

01:02And we want people now to take the advantage of the opportunity to best prepare both of the coast

01:08and then also well inland where serious impacts from flooding and wind and tornadoes can occur

01:14as well as a tropical storm or hurricane moves inland.

01:17All right, let's take a look at the water temperature anomalies because that's always where we like to start.

01:22Now, these anomalies, where we're comparing it to the 30-year historical average,

01:27the water is not quite as warm as it was last year,

01:30especially in what we call the main development region in the Atlantic.

01:35But it's still plenty warm enough, especially in the Gulf.

01:38It is. It sure is.

01:39And when you look at this map, when we have the oranges and then into the reds,

01:43we're talking about water temperatures that are 5 to 8 degrees above those long-term historic averages.

01:51So that warm water is fuel for developing hurricanes,

01:54and that's why we get concerned when there's a lot of warm water across the Atlantic Ocean

01:58as we've had over the last several years.

02:00And, of course, this warmth this year compared to the historic average,

02:03it's still above average but not as intense in the main part of the Atlantic Ocean.

02:08But look at what's been happening closer to home here, near the Bahamas and in the Gulf.

02:14Water temperatures there, in some cases, 8 or 9 degrees above the long-term historic average.

02:19There's been a marine heat wave that's occurred here over the last several weeks in that part of the Atlantic Basin.

02:26And those water temperatures, that's bad news because that can be fuel for these storms to intensify more rapidly

02:33as they approach land should storms develop.

02:36So that's a big concern.

02:37All right, let's go over some highlights, Sean.

02:39And because of that warm water, we are calling for a busy start and end of the hurricane season.

02:44The busy start during the month of June and early July.

02:47In fact, we're worried about homegrown development here as we get into next week.

02:52More on that as we go through the morning.

02:53But rapid intensifications of the storms.

02:56The other thing we want to get people to understand, impacts from these landfalling storms,

03:03whether it's a tropical storm, tropical rainstorm, or hurricane, will extend well inland.

03:07That's such a key point.

03:08And that's one of the things when I'm talking to people sometimes that sometimes people may have the impression that,

03:15well, hurricanes or tropical storms only need to worry about that at the coast.

03:18But as we've seen so many times over history and then also last year in particular,

03:23look at what happened in the higher elevations of eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina

03:27with devastating flash flooding, the catastrophic flooding disaster that happened there.

03:33Oftentimes very serious life-threatening and destructive flooding can occur well inland.

03:38We had storms last year, even Beryl and Debbie, where those storms moved inland as tropical rainstorms.

03:44They lost wind intensity, but they brought catastrophic flash flooding to parts of the northeastern United States

03:50a thousand miles away from where the storm made landfall.

03:53So watch for those rain impacts inland.

03:55Also, Gulf Coast and Carolina is at higher risk.

03:59How do we determine that?

04:00Well, we take a look at the weather pattern and we look to the past, the forecast of future.

04:04We do.

04:05These are similar years where the ocean and weather conditions lined up with what we're expecting this summer.

04:11And a couple of areas really popped out.

04:13The Carolina coastline, the Gulf Coast once again, which was obviously a major concern last year,

04:19all the way from the upper Texas coast through Louisiana, through the Gulf Coast to Florida,

04:24and then a few hits of concern in similar years across the northeastern U.S. to Atlantic Canada.

04:29So those look like some of the areas that we're concerned can have a greater risk

04:33than the historic average for direct impacts.

04:36AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter.

04:38John, thanks for joining us here on AccuWeather Early.

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