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00:00Text message. Been re-watching Texans games from last season.
00:04Good for you, Texter. Get ready for the season. Get excited.
00:07Texter says, Seth, do you guys think the Texans have done enough in the offseason
00:12to replace a healthy Diggs and Dell?
00:15Man, those two were really good when they were playing.
00:18We'll see. Body-wise, they have. I don't know if the bodies are going to be as good.
00:21I think the Christian Kirk trade is a little under-heralded for what it could provide.
00:27I think Christian Kirk, a lot of his last few seasons have been, one, impressive.
00:35His first year in Jacksonville was impressive.
00:37But then with Calvin Ridley becoming the main guy and then Brian Thomas after that,
00:41and then with Christian Kirk having been injured a good chunk these last two years,
00:48I don't think you've – there's more upside there than I think people might think or realize.
00:53And if only just to give CJ that quick option in the quick passing game,
00:59they wouldn't have that without Stefan Diggs and Tank Dell nearly as much.
01:04So they've partially replaced it with that, and then there's just a huge unknown
01:09is whether the draft picks work out or not.
01:11Yeah.
01:11If Higgins and Noel are both awesome, then yep, there's your answer.
01:14They did enough.
01:15If they don't work out, then I'll be –
01:21My biggest concern – you touched on it there.
01:23My biggest concern with this receiving core is Christian Kirk's recent history with health issues
01:29and Nico Collins' history with health issues across the course –
01:33really across the course of his career in the NFL so far.
01:36You know, you can't have a pulled hamstring and miss six –
01:40I'm not throwing shade at Nico.
01:41Like, he's not trying to pull a hamstring, but, like, they can't have Nico Collins missing
01:46for six games again this year if they're trying to get –
01:49to have the type of regular season they want to, to have the type of postseason they want to.
01:53And remember, too, that they had three good receivers last year,
01:58but it didn't yield a really good passing game.
02:01Yeah.
02:02So, like, there was way more to it than, oh, we've got these really good receivers, here we go.
02:08That was pretty obvious.
02:09That was played out last year.
02:10Like, Nico kept producing despite seeing cover two all the time,
02:14despite teams specifically trying to take away the deep ball.
02:18He did keep producing.
02:19But you can have the – some can – the total can be greater than the sum of its parts with this offense,
02:26even if you don't have the same caliber of wide receiver across the board.
02:30The Texans were in second and long and third and long just way too often last year
02:33because of poor execution on first sound.
02:36A lot of that was in the run game.
02:37You don't have to have an awesome run game, but you've got to at least not be routinely getting stuffed
02:42at the line of scrimmage because that makes it really, really hard to convert that set of downs.
02:46So, just having a credible rushing attack, it's not the 1980s.
02:50I'm not saying that you've got to be – but you've got to have a credible rushing attack
02:54to offset when teams are just specifically trying to take –
02:59K really ends up being the biggest X factor in all that.
03:01By the way, according to Aaron Wilson, Joe Mixon is still recovering, I guess.
03:07He's not 100%, so Damian Pierce is going to get a bump up here at OTAs when they're running things out there.
03:14So, we'll see.
03:14I don't know how much of an impression you can make in OTAs that maps to getting more action in the regular season,
03:20but it's worth noting Joe Mixon, at least for now, is still recovering from some –
03:25what I'm guessing is just some work that was done in the offseason here.
03:27Well, if anything, maybe it's – there will be more quality reps for Damian Pierce to get ingrained in this offense.
03:33Yeah.
03:33And that's one of the huge wild cards is, all right, we saw a much different version of Damian Pierce
03:39playing for Pep Hamilton than we did these last couple years playing for Bobby Sloick.
03:44And if Kaylee – if Kaylee is very much about tailoring the offense to the strengths of his players,
03:50so I think they're going to – they're going to probably, if they still really believe in Damian Pierce
03:54and the potential there, he'll – they're hopefully going to utilize him better.
03:58Here are the odds via FanDuel on individual receivers to record 1,250 yards receiving or more this year.
04:08How far down do we go until we get to Nico Collins?
04:10Jamar Chase is number one at nearly one to two.
04:14He's minus 195, so you've got to bet 195 bucks just to win 100.
04:18Jamar Chase is by far and away the leader on this odds board.
04:23Justin Jefferson is number two at minus 115, so around a coin flip, a little greater than a coin flip.
04:30He'd probably be close to Jamar Chase if his quarterback situation were a little less mysterious.
04:36I think it's going to be J.J. McIntyre going to snap in the NFL yet.
04:41Puka Nakua is number three on this list at plus 105, so you risk 100 to win 105.
04:47That's as close to a coin flip as you can get.
04:51CeeDee Lamb is next at plus 120.
04:54And then next, Nico Collins and Brian Thomas Jr. tied at plus 135.
04:59If you bet over 1,250 yards receiving for Nico Collins, you get 135 bucks for risking 100.
05:08This to me, Seth, if you were to bet this, this is purely a bet on health.
05:13If Nico Collins is healthy for 17 games, he's getting 1,250 yards.
05:17Since pairing up with C.J. Stroud, he's played at a 1,300-plus-yard pace for both those seasons.
05:25Yes.
05:25He did 1,297 yards on 15 games in 2023, and then last year he would have been on pace for probably 1,450 yards or so,
05:34but he only played 12 games.
05:35Right.
05:36So, yeah, I think it's pretty clear-cut.
05:40If he stays healthy, yes, he'll be over 1,200 yards.
05:42You're betting on his hamstrings is what you're betting on, right?
05:44So, yeah, how confident do you feel for a guy that's never played more than 15 games in a season?
05:50Yeah, I—
05:51Is he going to stay healthy for all season long?
05:53It's a stay away for me.
05:54It's a stay away for me because it's one thing if Nico Collins is having health issues,
05:58and then this is the offseason where he makes tweaks to his regimen, and he probably will.
06:03Like, I would if I missed five games with a hamstring injury,
06:06but that was the big news coming into his first big year that he had with C.J. in 2023
06:11was that was the offseason where he had really gone back and assessed how he was going about things
06:15because he was injured quite a bit.
06:17First two years in the league, you know, like he's been through this process before,
06:23and he's still dealing with some kind of nagging injuries.
06:25He may just be one of those guys that's going to miss two or three games every year.
06:30That's, you know, based on style of play, just, you know, your body—
06:33different bodies work differently, whatever the case may be.
06:36Ryan Thomas Jr. being there plus 135 is a little scary.
06:39Do you think that the combination of Travis Hunter, Ryan Thomas Jr., and Liam Cohen,
06:45what's your concern level that Trevor Lawrence gets to the level that he's really only hit
06:51for, like, a seven-game period at the end of 2022 in his career?
06:54It's still not that high.
06:57I think that Liam Cohen—I could see Liam Cohen doing some things differently with him early in the season
07:04that are going to look really, really good.
07:06But Trevor Lawrence just has still never demonstrated that, like, a bona fide, genuine NFL quarterback,
07:15he hasn't demonstrated that he can really get through his progression
07:18or that he won't get rattled after his first option is gone.
07:22And that's, by and large, how defenses talk about him.
07:25He's a first-read quarterback.
07:26So what usually happens with guys like that who still do have physical skills
07:30is a new coordinator comes in.
07:31Hey, we've got a few different packages here.
07:33We're going to take the league by storm, and it looks awesome for a few games.
07:37And then defenses start to realize what you're doing and how you're working it.
07:41So I'm a little bit more optimistic just because he's got more raw physical talent around him,
07:46and there's a little bit of an ambush quality with Liam Cohen.
07:49But I wouldn't be—it's not like I feel like this is the year that all of a sudden Trevor Lawrence breaks out.
07:54No, the Texans get them in week three.
07:56It's interesting.
07:59Odds board.
08:00Again, it's receivers that—odds on receivers going over 1,250 yards receiving from FanDuel here.
08:07Puka Nakua three, Brian Thomas Jr. tied with Nico Collins at fifth.
08:12You see those two guys—you see those two guys in the first three weeks of the season.
08:17You know, like I'm—that's one of the things I'm kind of excited about early on that's sort of underplayed right now
08:25because you always look at quarterbacks and different things.
08:27And in that Rams game, the matchup between the Texans' newfangled offensive line versus the Rams' defensive line
08:33is getting a ton of attention, as it should.
08:36But Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lasseter in the first three weeks of the season
08:40going against Puka Nakua and Devontae Adams.
08:44Yeah.
08:44Week two, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, who's coming off injury, but they also drafted Tampa Bay,
08:49drafted Emeka Abuka.
08:51And then in week three, you get Jacksonville with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter.
08:56Like, those are—right out of the chute, those are three, like, really saucy corner versus wide receiver matchups.
09:03Those are really good.
09:04And then it's week three for Travis Hunter, so there will already be a storyline by that point.
09:09Yeah.
09:09He will either—he will be one of two things.
09:11He will either be taking the league by storm, or he'll be a vast disappointment.
09:16And it'll only be three weeks in.
09:18So either opinion is wrong.
09:20It could be the right opinion, but for the wrong reasons.
09:24But, yeah, I feel like that Jacksonville game has the potential to actually have some clout
09:29and feel like the most emotionally charged Jaguars game just because I'll—
09:34Travis Hunter is—Travis Hunter is a guy that's—
09:37His name is really well in those first couple games.
09:41There's going to be a lot of people talking about him, even though he plays for Jacksonville.
09:45So that'll be a lot of fun.
09:45I think the league wants him—when I say the league, I mean, like, you know, the people that—
09:49The people whose livelihoods are based on the entertainment value of football, those people,
09:56I think they want this Travis Hunter thing to work out.
09:58Like, he would be—especially if he's playing both ways, I mean, highly marketable.
10:03Oh, there's a—boy, there's a video I saw of him walking through some apartment complex in Jacksonville,
10:07and he sees some kid working out in his backyard.
10:10And it was like he was in these condos or apartments, you know,
10:13so his backyard is just his little sliver of the hill that goes down to the retention pond.
10:17Yeah.
10:17And he's got a chair out, and he's practicing his pass rush moves against a chair.
10:22Yep.
10:23And Travis Hunter walks up to him, and oh, oh my gosh.
10:26Yeah.
10:27They took pictures.
10:28Travis Hunter seems like he's—he seems like a Will Anderson type of personality.
10:31He seems like a very willing man of the people right now, Travis Hunter does.
10:35So that'll—
10:35It's going to be a tough five reasons I hate Travis Hunter that week.
10:38We're going to start working on it now.
10:40We better start working on it now.
10:41He is hard to hate.
10:43He had a big wedding this past weekend, too.
10:45I think it was—I can't remember if it was this weekend or the previous weekend,
10:47but he gave his new wife a G-Wagon, like a $200,000 G-Wagon.
10:54Like, it was—it had a huge—
10:55And he hasn't even touched his NFL money yet.
10:57Yeah.
10:57That's all NIL.
10:58That came from his NIL money.
11:00That wasn't even—you know, he hasn't gotten his actual guaranteed money yet.
11:03He might have a deal with Mercedes of Boulder or something like that,
11:06and that was their wedding gift to them.
11:07Who the hell knows, but—
11:08That was a—gosh, I hope he's known this girl a while.
11:10This wasn't like a stripper that he met on draft night.
11:12No, no, no.
11:13I think they've been together for a little while.
11:14I think they've been—
11:15That happens.
11:15Been together for a little while.
11:19That does happen.
11:19I remember he got drafted—oh, boy.
11:22Jeez.
11:22Wasn't he the one that had the agent that was a little out there?
11:25He was—yeah, they were—it was a guy who was kind of like—
11:28Kind of a religious aspect to it.
11:29He was—there was a religious, like, cult-like aspect to it.
11:32Yeah, yeah.
11:33And they talked him into, like, doing the right thing and marrying this woman who—
11:38And it was—remember, they gave him a deal that was, like, had very few guarantees and
11:42everything.
11:43Dude.
11:43It ended up being one of the worst deals ever.
11:45They ruined his life.
11:46They ruined his life.
11:47Yeah, because he got injured and hardly ever played after that, and, like, he had gotten
11:51a deal that was—I don't think it would even be allowed by today's CBA.
11:54He was a top-five pick.
11:55Him and Ricky Williams, man.
11:57Him and Ricky—because Ricky Williams did the same thing.
11:59He had Master P as his agent and did one of the—the Saints trade their entire draft
12:05to get Ricky Williams, and Ricky Williams comes in and does them the solid of doing a—like,
12:10an almost entirely incentive-based contract.
12:13Master P at least knew what he was doing and was an actual businessman.
12:16The guy that was advising all of these athletes, because I knew a few of them, like, he had
12:21been, like, sanctioned by the Securities and Exchange Commission, it was—but he was
12:26cloaking it in this, uh, God's purpose is why I'm helping you and everything, and they
12:31tithed him the money—they would tithe their money to a guy who was also in charge of their
12:37finances.
12:38Yeah.
12:38Yeah, it was sketchy as hell.
12:39That's sketchier.
12:41In some ways, I think the Master P thing is worse, though, because he—to your point,
12:45he was actually a businessman.
12:46He was in the music industry, and he's in there and negotiating a horrible deal for—like,
12:51same type of deal for Ricky Williams, probably minus the tithing.
12:54I don't think Ricky Williams was tithing to Master P or anything like that.
12:56Right.
12:58Yeah, yeah.
12:59Like, yeah, like, they—Ricky Williams had to get them to rip that up and get traded to
13:03Miami to get out of that thing.
13:05Um, a lot of texts coming in here, and we'll, uh, we'll hit those.
13:08Um, good point on Nico.
13:10Nico said—someone says Nico really only played, like, ten games because he played a quarter of the
13:14Bills game and then just one series in the final game of the year to—with the Titans
13:19to get over—to get over 1,000 yards.
13:22So, yeah, like, he's—that's what I'm saying.
13:24Like, Nico Collins—in 17 games, Nico Collins is a 1,500-yard receiver if he's playing 17
13:31games on this team.
13:32I don't care if they got Christian Kirk and they drafted a couple of guys.
13:35Like, when the bleep is coming down, CJ Stroud is, by and large, looking for one guy, and
13:41that's Nico Collins, you know?
13:42Like, that's—that's his go—I think he's looking for other guys, but, like, that's
13:44his go-to guy.
13:45You know, that is—he's the man.
13:47So they just gotta—all they have to do is the minor detail of his hamstrings falling
13:51off the bone every now and then.
13:52That's it.
13:53That's it.
13:53Just keep your hamstrings from falling off the bone, okay?
13:55And you're fine.
13:56Yeah, yeah.
13:57Um, someone says, hey, Seth, so basically the agent was Jack Easterby.
14:01Uh, it was—it was—it was one of those, man—like, there was—when I was in Jacksonville,
14:08they had a lot of guys who were born again and incredibly enthusiastic about it.
14:15Yeah.
14:16And, uh, and, like, were gung-ho into whoever was leading them by the arm.
14:22And it was—it was sad because a lot of guys lost a lot of money by somebody that just,
14:26you know, that said everything that they wanted to hear.
14:28Because they were guys that were genuinely, you know, they were—they were genuine in
14:32their piety and their mission and all this.
14:35Yeah.
14:35And it just took this—yeah, the same category of crime.
14:41But, um, yeah, it was—it was a charismatic dude that just led them right off the depths.
14:47Yep.
14:47Into the depths, yeah.
14:48Uh—
14:48Uh—
14:49— yat—