- 5/29/2025
Despite looking like unlikely title challengers at xmas, Enzo Maresca's Chelsea have struggled for form and wins in the months since. Adam Clery dives deep into the data, as well as looking at them on the pitch, to work out if this is the fault of the manager, the players, the opposition, or something else entirely.
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00:00Hi everybody, Adam Cleary, ACFC, shirts being made as we speak, and if you're a Chelsea fan, I've got some enormous news for you.
00:09While I'm obviously not a mathematician, hence why I do something like this for a living, I can still read.
00:15So thank you very much for the five, I don't know, million-ish messages we've had about what's going wrong with Chelsea.
00:22Here is the video about what's going wrong with Chelsea, and that's the whole intro.
00:30Now before we start, it is a million degrees in here, so if you can hear something in the background, that's the air conditioner, live with it.
00:38And if I go bright red in the face, that's just how it is. I thank you not to draw attention to it.
00:45Okay, so Chelsea FC, that's them here. Some vital context before we start, because you do have fans of other clubs being like,
00:52hang on, they're like two points off the Champions League places, they've looked really good in parts this season.
00:57And what on earth are fans whinging about?
01:00But then, on the other side of all that, you've got the people who actually pay their money to go and watch Chelsea,
01:05on the verge of storming the pitch and punching Robert Sanchez in the face, every time he tries to take a short goal kick.
01:11So, what's going on there then?
01:14Well, first off, they did look really good at one stage this season.
01:18Like, if you went out on Boxing Day with all your pals and your little new Christmas socks on,
01:22by the time you got to the bar and ordered your first Baileys, right, they were second in the Premier League table.
01:29They were three points off top. Only Liverpool and Man City had been able to beat them.
01:33That's really good.
01:34They were exciting to watch. A number of last season's major underwhelmists appeared to be improving under the manager.
01:41There was tentative talk about a shock title challenge.
01:45However, by the time you'd ordered your, like, fourth Baileys or something, they'd just been beaten 2-1 by Fulham,
01:51and the form has been incredibly patchy ever since then.
01:55And even on the old eye test, they've looked nowhere near the level they were in the initial parts of the season.
02:00Now, I will hold my hands up here and say that when this first started happening,
02:04and keep that in mind because there's a twist coming later on.
02:07When this first started happening, I was like, oh, it's pretty straightforward, all of this.
02:12They've lost Wesley Fofana. They've lost Romeo Lavia.
02:14They're really important to how they want to play.
02:16So, no wonder the performances and the results haven't been as good.
02:20If you look at their availability and compare that with the run of results,
02:23the Venn diagram of being without them and not being as good is practically a circle.
02:29And the pair of them have started a grand total of three games since whenever it was they got injured.
02:36And it wasn't just that they had two players missing,
02:38because loads of teams in the Premier League have had injuries this season.
02:40It's the kind of players they were and specifically what they were doing in this team.
02:45Look at their profiles, and these are from FBRF this season.
02:47They are in the very top numbers in the Premier League for what they offer you physically.
02:52They both contribute absolutely massively to winning the ball back.
02:55Like, Fofana is so aggressive with it.
02:57He's in the top 1% of Premier League defenders for tackles in the opposition third.
03:02They both read the game so well that they're two of the league's leading interceptors.
03:06And this was a graphical illustration I used at the time of Lavia and Fofana's combined defensive contribution
03:12in the 3-0 win against Aston Villa.
03:15And just take my word for it here, right?
03:16In a game where you have 65% possession, that is an enormous contribution from just two players.
03:24It pretty much absolves everybody else, in particular Enzo Fernandes and Levi Colwell,
03:29from having to worry about this stuff.
03:31And they can just be on the ball and excel on the ball,
03:34which is what those two players in particular are really good at.
03:38But, and here's the little twisty twist for you,
03:42we're a few months down the line from this.
03:43And while I absolutely stand by the fact that missing Lavia and missing Fofana
03:47really does mess with what it is Chelsea are trying to do,
03:51I actually don't think they're exclusively the reason for their spotty fall.
03:55Like, the longer time has gone on, the longer it's looked like,
03:59in fact, it might actually be...
04:02Dun-dun-dun!
04:04The manager!
04:05Not to sound like Colleen Rooney here,
04:07but it's...
04:09Moresca Ball.
04:11Because when you boil down what Moresca Ball is supposed to be,
04:15it is a possession-heavy brand of football,
04:17that by hook or by crook,
04:19you're supposed to end up with five players in the attack,
04:22then you get one of the defenders into the midfield,
04:25and you shuffle into a back three like this.
04:27And the idea is,
04:28you then push that right the way up the pitch,
04:31as far as it will go,
04:32and you pen in the opposition.
04:34So you play almost the entire game in their half,
04:37with yourself set both in attack,
04:39to exploit space and find passing lanes,
04:41and probe and push and do all of this,
04:43but also,
04:44for these five players,
04:46to be well set to defend against counter-attacks.
04:48That's what he wants to do.
04:50But the thing is,
04:50right,
04:51and I honestly sat down with a calculator,
04:53or the calculator app,
04:55on my phone,
04:56and worked all this out, right?
04:57If we divide Chelsea's season
04:59into the good half,
05:01and the bad half,
05:02there's a bit of a shocking revelation here.
05:06So the idea is that
05:07the better that Chelsea get
05:08at doing Maresca's brand of football,
05:10the more possession they will have,
05:12and then by extension,
05:13the more chances they'll create.
05:15But if you look at Chelsea's
05:17average amount of possession,
05:18and average XG,
05:20and I know,
05:20I know,
05:21like people don't care about XG,
05:22but it's just,
05:23instead of me going through shots,
05:24and shots on target,
05:25and goals,
05:26it does sort of neatly bundle out up
05:27into how good the chances are,
05:29so just give me a pass on this one,
05:30right?
05:30If you look at their average possession,
05:32and their XG,
05:34in the good part of the season,
05:35it's 56.5% of the ball,
05:38and 2.13 XG per game.
05:42And I will say,
05:43both of those stats
05:44are really good.
05:45If you're creating,
05:46on average,
05:46two goals worth of chances,
05:48and having slightly more of the ball,
05:50you're easily one of the best teams
05:51in the Premier League.
05:52It is no wonder
05:53they were second.
05:54But the thing is,
05:55after this,
05:56the possession jumped up
05:58massively to well over
06:0060% per game.
06:02Woof.
06:03But then the XG
06:04drops like 25% or 30%
06:07to 1.5%.
06:09Also,
06:10for very different reasons,
06:12woof.
06:13And if I'm Enzo Mureska
06:14looking at those numbers,
06:15I'd be really concerned by that,
06:17because the objective
06:18is to get this team
06:19more of the ball.
06:21And that's working.
06:22They're seeing more of the ball,
06:23but they're now creating less
06:25and worse chances
06:26as a result.
06:28Like,
06:28that's not how this
06:29is supposed to work.
06:31That is weird, isn't it?
06:32It's almost like
06:33possession
06:33doesn't necessarily
06:35or automatically
06:36correlate with chance
06:38creation.
06:39And I just wonder
06:41if there's like
06:42a great
06:42recent example
06:44of this somewhere
06:44in English football.
06:46Like,
06:47top of my head,
06:48I don't know,
06:48maybe
06:49Leicester City?
06:51Like,
06:52last season?
06:54Under Enzo Mureska?
06:55Leicester last season,
06:57just like Chelsea this season,
06:58had the second highest
06:59possession in the league.
07:00It's 61%.
07:01But if you rank
07:02all of their games
07:04by XG,
07:05so sort of like
07:06stack them
07:07by how good
07:07the chances
07:08they created were,
07:09three of their best
07:10five games
07:11came with less
07:13than 61% possession.
07:15So,
07:15below
07:16their seasonal average
07:17were some of their
07:18best games.
07:19In fact,
07:19if you go through this
07:20and you look at
07:20when they played
07:21their best stuff,
07:23there is zero
07:24correlation whatsoever
07:25to them having
07:26more of the ball.
07:27In fact,
07:27their worst performances
07:29of the season,
07:29both in terms of
07:30chances created
07:31and results
07:32came when they had
07:33their highest
07:34shares of possession.
07:36Like,
07:36it's actually nuts
07:37when you look at
07:37some of this,
07:38like 73% and 72%
07:40possession
07:41against QPR
07:42and Millwall
07:42and then barely
07:43one goal's worth
07:44of XG
07:45created in both
07:46those games,
07:47which you then
07:48subsequently lose.
07:49Like,
07:50I knew it was going
07:51to be like that
07:52a bit when I started
07:53looking at the numbers,
07:54but I did not know
07:55it was going to be
07:56like that,
07:57like that.
07:58But now,
07:59here's the thing,
08:00and I know
08:00exactly what
08:01you're thinking
08:02here,
08:02right?
08:04Let's see
08:05Chelsea's numbers.
08:06Now,
08:06as I just mentioned
08:07before,
08:08they're the second
08:08highest average
08:09possession this season,
08:1058.4%,
08:12I think,
08:13off the top
08:13of my head.
08:14But when you look
08:15at their performances
08:17this season,
08:18there is again
08:18zero,
08:20nip,
08:20nadder,
08:21niche correlation
08:22at all
08:22between them
08:23having the ball
08:24and them making
08:25chances.
08:26In fact,
08:26and if you're a Chelsea
08:27fan,
08:27this will absolutely
08:28spin your head
08:29clean off.
08:30That 4-2 against
08:31Brighton,
08:31their second best
08:32day in front of
08:34Cole,
08:35is their lowest
08:36amount of
08:37possession they've
08:37had in the league
08:38all season.
08:40Matter still,
08:41their four highest
08:42percentages,
08:43the return fixture
08:44against Brighton,
08:45Everton,
08:45and both Ipswich games,
08:47they did not win
08:49a single one
08:51of those.
08:51So just to put
08:53this in one
08:53neat little
08:54sentence that
08:55you can tweet
08:55or stick in a
08:56WhatsApp group
08:56and take the
08:57credit for
08:58yourself,
08:58this is a
08:59manager who
09:00wants his
09:00team to see
09:01as much of
09:02the ball as
09:03possible and
09:04yet is very
09:05good at creating
09:06chances without
09:07the ball and
09:08really seems to
09:09struggle in games
09:10when the
09:11opposition just
09:12give them
09:13possession.
09:13So yeah,
09:15of course things
09:16don't seem to
09:17be working for
09:17Chelsea in the
09:18second half of
09:18the season
09:19because there's
09:20no way that
09:21could possibly
09:22work.
09:23It's f***ing
09:23mad.
09:24And while this
09:24is all incredibly
09:25nerdy deep deep
09:26maths, you don't
09:27even need that to
09:28be able to see
09:28this.
09:29Like if you go
09:29back and watch
09:30some of their
09:30games from the
09:31early part of
09:32the season,
09:32you just lose
09:33count of the
09:34amount of
09:35really quick
09:36vertical goals
09:37they score
09:37where they go
09:38back to front,
09:39they play into
09:40the space where
09:40they rip teams
09:41apart with
09:42running and
09:43with pace and
09:43with through
09:44balls.
09:44Like I can
09:45remember
09:45extremely vividly
09:47this goal they
09:47scored against
09:48Newcastle because
09:49it's literally
09:49one or two
09:51touches,
09:51then they're
09:51completely in
09:52behind the
09:53defence.
09:53It is
09:54lightning,
09:54it is almost
09:55undefensible.
09:56It's really,
09:57really fun to
09:58watch.
10:00Although
10:01maybe not for
10:02me in that
10:02exact moment.
10:03But then you
10:03watch them in the
10:04Fulham game or the
10:05Ipswich game and
10:06just where is that
10:08space?
10:09They have to hang
10:09crosses up all the
10:11time.
10:11They're shooting
10:11wildly because they've
10:12run out of ideas.
10:14I don't get me wrong,
10:14the fast breaks are
10:15still there but it's
10:16now the opposition
10:17that are doing that
10:18to Chelsea.
10:18They have to
10:19commit so many
10:19bodies forward with
10:21this ponderous
10:21approach that you
10:22can now catch
10:24them out.
10:24But the thing is,
10:25and this is
10:26technically another
10:26little twist on all
10:27of this,
10:28this is where the
10:28issue starts to
10:30get a little bit
10:30clouded.
10:31Because while it is
10:32obvious that the
10:33manager wants them
10:34to have more of the
10:34ball, it is also
10:35absolutely true that
10:37these low blocks you
10:38see teams doing to
10:39Chelsea now were not
10:41as common in the
10:42early part of the
10:43season.
10:43Teams weren't as
10:44afraid of them as
10:45they seem to be at
10:46the minute, so they
10:47were being more
10:48open and Chelsea
10:48were taking advantage
10:50of that.
10:50And the problem of
10:51course with low
10:51blocks is that the
10:52best way to open
10:53them up is by
10:54isolating players
10:55individually one-on-one
10:56and then beating
10:57them in those
10:59circumstances.
10:59And Chelsea have a
11:01wonderful squad
11:02packed with talented
11:03players but nobody
11:04who's really good at
11:06that specific thing.
11:07Now just to use the
11:08Ipswich game again,
11:08they get a goal from
11:10doing this exact thing.
11:11Their block is low,
11:12they are deep,
11:13they're trying to
11:13deny them space but
11:14they isolate a one-on-one,
11:16they beat that
11:17defender and they
11:18get a goal from
11:19it.
11:19And that is great but
11:20they have not been
11:21able to do that
11:22enough this season.
11:23Neto, Madweke,
11:24Parma, all the
11:25players you want to
11:25be doing that have
11:26really low numbers
11:27for individual
11:29take-ons this
11:29season.
11:30As a result,
11:30Chelsea are third
11:31bottom in the
11:32league for the
11:33percentage take-on
11:35success they have.
11:36They're not suited
11:37to be doing this and
11:38teams are forcing
11:39them to play this
11:40way.
11:41So for me, the
11:41problems are two-fold.
11:43You've got a manager
11:43who is obsessed with
11:44a particular style
11:46of play, does not
11:46want to move away
11:47from that as the
11:48general direction of
11:49travel but you've got
11:51a squad who when
11:52they try and play
11:53that way, the
11:54counter to it for
11:55other teams is
11:56pretty obvious and
11:57pretty effective.
11:58So either that will
11:59get better over time
12:01and he's right or
12:02it'll get worse over
12:03time and he's wrong.
12:05And if you're a
12:05Chelsea fan, it's
12:06entirely up to you
12:07which side of that
12:08argument you're on.
12:09But what would
12:09were I a Chelsea fan
12:11give me a little bit
12:12of hope is that
12:13winning goal against
12:15Fulham because it
12:16is just so not what
12:17they normally try to
12:19do.
12:19And with time running
12:20out and points
12:21slipping away, they
12:23found a really good
12:25incisive vertical
12:26lightning fast move
12:28up the pitch.
12:29And now, granted,
12:31they don't split
12:32Fulham wide open but
12:33there's far more room
12:34in the final third
12:35for them to do
12:36something with it and
12:37that gets them the
12:38goal.
12:38Now again, if you're a
12:39Chelsea fan, it's
12:40entirely up to you
12:41whether you think
12:42that's the players
12:43going, oh, do you
12:44know what, the hell
12:44with this passing
12:45rubbish, running up
12:47the other end and
12:47just getting a goal
12:48in spite of the
12:49manager, or whether
12:51it represents some
12:52malleability on his
12:54part and he's gone,
12:55yeah, do you know
12:56what, that nerd
12:57stuff's not working.
12:58Off you go, boys.
12:59Not being in the
13:01Chelsea dugout or
13:02dressing room that
13:02afternoon, I have no
13:04idea who gets the
13:04credit for that goal
13:05but regardless, it
13:07did happen and that's
13:09the important thing.
13:10So yeah, I normally
13:10try and end these
13:11with a question and
13:12say the question here
13:13is fairly obvious,
13:14like Chelsea fans,
13:15are the frustrations
13:16you're feeling now
13:17merely just sort of
13:19the growing pains of
13:20what will be a
13:20long-term successful
13:21project, like so is
13:22this just going to
13:23click into light, a
13:23couple of more
13:24signings, it'll be
13:25amazing next season
13:26or is this just a
13:28guy who like had
13:29some good early
13:30success and has no
13:31idea whatsoever how
13:33to capitalise on it
13:34or how to counter the
13:35counters to said
13:37success?
13:38Do you like him or
13:39do you not?
13:39That's what I'm
13:40asking.
13:40And also, just
13:41before we go, a
13:42reminder, I'm doing
13:42the hackney half in
13:43like, I've got a
13:44watch on a couple
13:45of weeks, around
13:465k this morning for
13:47it, so my legs
13:48really, really hurt
13:49but it's worth it
13:49because I'm doing it
13:50for Calm, the
13:51campaign against
13:52living and
13:52miserably, they're a
13:53suicide prevention
13:54charity here in the
13:55UK, a really,
13:55really awesome cause.
13:56If you do have a
13:57fiver or whatever,
13:58kick it around,
13:59burning a hole in
13:59your pocket, it
14:00goes so much
14:01further than you
14:02would believe, so
14:02it's a great place
14:03to donate.
14:03The link is in the
14:05description.
14:06I've just remembered I
14:07said that in the
14:07last video and then I
14:08didn't put the link
14:09in the description,
14:09so I'll remember
14:10this time.
14:11You get me, of
14:11course, all the
14:11social medias,
14:12at Adam Cleary,
14:12C-L-E-R-Y, and
14:13of course I would
14:14implore you to
14:15subscribe to us
14:15here at ACFC
14:17because I just, I'd
14:18really, really like
14:19to hit 100k before
14:20the season ends.
14:21That would be, that
14:21would be like my
14:22trophy that I can
14:23win and that would
14:24be nice for me and
14:25nice for you in a
14:26way, so do that.
14:28Clicky, clicky,
14:29thanky, thanky,
14:31goodbye, goodbye,
14:32bye.
14:35Bye.
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