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00:00The end of May, it is postseason time, and that continues in the conference final round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
00:07We have a ton to get you caught up on over the weekend on the ice,
00:10and helping us to do that here on this Tuesday on the early line on SportsGrid.
00:15It is Troy Perlowitz of the NHL here to break everything down.
00:19Game number four last night in Sunrise at the home of the reigning Stanley Cup champions,
00:24and getting ready for game number four in the Western Conference Final between the Stars and the Oilers as well.
00:29Troy, we appreciate the time. Thanks for joining us here to start off a new week on TEL.
00:34Thanks so much for having me, guys. Excited to join you.
00:36Yeah, very excited to talk some puck with you here after game number four of the Eastern Conference Final last night.
00:43Troy, and for the first time in a very long time, the Carolina Hurricanes finally win a game in the conference final.
00:51To avoid being swept by the Florida Panthers, Carolina goes into Sunrise last night and wins three-zip on road ice.
00:59Both of those final two goals for the Hurricanes scored late in the third period on an empty net.
01:05So it was pretty close last night, Troy.
01:08But Carolina snaps their 15-game conference final losing skid for their first win here in the Eastern Conference Final against Florida.
01:18What did Carolina finally figure out last night to edge out the Panthers?
01:23Yeah, I mean, you're right.
01:24I thought it was funny that the last time Carolina had won a conference final game, their head coach scored the game-winning goal.
01:32What they did last night and they hadn't done at the start of the series is they kept Florida out of the middle of the ice.
01:39Florida loves to score goals from those high-danger, greasy areas of the ice right above the crease.
01:45And Carolina only allowed two high-danger shots on goal last night.
01:49A lot of that was Jacob Slavin, who was incredible.
01:52But they had allowed nine high-danger shots in just the third period in Game 3.
01:58To hold them to just two is a phenomenal defensive-structured game.
02:02And they were able to get enough offense.
02:04Their offense is still kind of sputtering.
02:07Carolina scores a lot of goals from outside of the slot.
02:11It's not a really sustainable form of offense.
02:14But they were able to at least get one off the rush with Stankoven with a perfect shot.
02:19So that one goal, I don't know how sustainable that is going forward as we go deeper into the series.
02:25Florida just seems inevitable.
02:27So I don't know what's going to happen further on.
02:29But last night was a really near-perfect game for Carolina.
02:33Yeah, Troy, you take a look at, too.
02:34Florida just seems like a machine right now.
02:36And nobody could have faulted the Carolina Hurricanes for saying, you know what?
02:39We're just going to bow out here, 4-0 sweep.
02:41No sense in playing the rest of the series.
02:43But they did pick up a victory, which means they go back to their own building.
02:46If we look at the series prices now, still going to be a heavy favorite for the Florida Panthers
02:50at a minus 1,600 as opposed to the dog price here on the Hurricanes at plus 860.
02:55Tell me what we need to see for the Carolina Hurricanes to even win game number five
02:59and try to extend this series.
03:01Yeah, they need their goaltender, Frederick Anderson, to play exactly as he did last night,
03:06which was to stop all the easy ones, right?
03:08Any shot from distance he was on top of.
03:11He wasn't really getting to those early in the series.
03:14He was benched for game three, came back and responded really well.
03:20Carolina needs to play a low-scoring game.
03:22Both teams are actually very good at tilting the ice in their favor.
03:25They like to play in the offensive zone, and they're very good at it.
03:28These were actually the top two teams in ice tilt, which is a measure of territorial momentum.
03:35These teams were great at it during the regular season,
03:37and they carried that into the postseason in both of their first two rounds.
03:40If Carolina is going to push the series even further, which we've seen Carolina do,
03:45well, against Florida, we saw Edmonton in the Stanley Cup final last year.
03:50Florida went up 3-0, then had to force a game seven.
03:54So we've seen Florida kind of be patient, as we will, about closing out their series.
04:00We saw Carolina last year.
04:01Carolina against the New York Rangers fell down 3-0 in their series,
04:05and they pushed that series to game six.
04:07They play a very tough style that's difficult to play against, but so does Florida.
04:12So these are two titans that are going head-to-head.
04:15I don't see the series going much further.
04:17I don't see the series going seven games.
04:19Florida is just too good of a team.
04:21You can't beat them three or even four times in a row.
04:25Their margin of error for Carolina is zero, right?
04:29Like, you lost the first three games.
04:31I don't see how this series gets longer than five games.
04:33Of course, the Panthers, the reigning Stanley Cup champs, one win away still from getting back to their third consecutive cup final.
04:40You saw the price for this series to end in only five.
04:43The gentlemen sweep at minus 128, basically Florida's money line price for game number five tomorrow in Raleigh.
04:50You feel good for the Canes.
04:51They got one finally, snapping that 15-game slide, but that might be it.
04:56Let's talk Western Conference final now, Troy, in game number four tonight in Edmonton between the Oilers and the Stars.
05:03Dallas in Big D.
05:05Five straight goals in the third period in game one to win 6-3.
05:09Since then, it's been the Oilers taking two straight for that 2-1 series lead.
05:14What changed for Edmonton here in the Western Conference final after the opening game of the set?
05:18Yeah, so Edmonton, they are clearly the fastest team still remaining in the playoffs.
05:25I think Colorado is probably a faster team in general, but Edmonton is the fastest team remaining, and nobody's faster than Conor McDavid.
05:33We measure speed bursts at NHL Edge.
05:36Anything over 20 miles an hour is considered a speed burst.
05:40Conor McDavid has 33 of them, and nobody else has more than 10.
05:43He's just the fastest player on the planet, and he's in this series.
05:47He took over game three.
05:49He gets the puck.
05:50If he goes end-to-end on a rush and Dallas allows him to do that and they don't pick him up in the defensive zone, he's going to torch them.
05:58And he did that multiple times in game three.
06:02They scored four goals off the rush.
06:04Zach Hyman had two of them.
06:06Conor McDavid assisted on another one.
06:08He scored two.
06:09He's been generating scoring chances all playoff year long.
06:11He hasn't really been finishing.
06:13We saw that he took over game three, scored twice.
06:17He's just a phenomenal player and probably one of the most deserving players to win the Stanley Cup that's still playing our game.
06:25I just think he seems like he's on a mission.
06:28Two goals for McDavid in game number three.
06:30Edmonton winning big 6-1 to take that 2-1 series advantage.
06:34We'll talk about game four on the other side of the break with Troy Perlowitz as well.
06:39McDavid, who won the Conn Smythe last year, the postseason MVP in the National Hockey League, even though the Oilers lost in seven games in the Stanley Cup final against the Florida Panthers, is now the favorite to win the Conn Smythe once again at a plus 190 price.
06:55So we will dive into game number four with Troy up next.
06:59Here are the odds for what could be a commanding game for Edmonton.
07:04The Oilers a minus 164 home money line favorite in a total of six and a half in what has been a fairly high scoring series between the Stars and the Oilers.
07:14Troy breaks it down with us up next in the Western Conference final here on the early line.
07:19Troy Perlowitz joining us here on this Tuesday on the early line on Sports Grid as we get you ready for game number four of the Western Conference final tonight.
07:27Up north of the border in Edmonton, the Oilers up 2-1 in the series, a minus 164 home money line favorite to take that commanding 3-1 series lead over the Dallas Stars.
07:39Total six and a half.
07:40Of course, Troy, this has been a rather high scoring series, often the case with the Oilers.
07:46What do you expect for game number four in Edmonton tonight?
07:49Yeah, I expect the high powered offenses to show up.
07:52Edmonton has scored three goals or more in 12 of their 14 games.
07:56I don't expect their offense to slow down at all.
07:59So if Dallas is going to win this game, they're going to have to step up their offense.
08:02Now, they were without Rupe Hintz in game three because of an injury.
08:06They might get him back tonight in game four.
08:08He's a big part of defending McDavid, but he's also got plenty of offensive power himself.
08:14And he plays a lot with Nico Rantan, who, of course, got off to such a great start at the start of this postseason, has slowed down quite a little bit.
08:21But I expect the goals to come in game four.
08:25If we are taking a look at the Edmonton Oilers already having a 2-1 series lead here, and we take a look and say, all right, let's re-rack the series itself.
08:31Edmonton to win this series is a minus 365 price.
08:34The underdog price in the Dallas Stars at a plus 285.
08:37Are we giving up hope on the Dallas Stars with a chance even if they lose that game tonight?
08:423-1 series lead, always tough to come back from.
08:44How do you see the rest of the series playing out?
08:46Yeah, I think that line makes a ton of sense.
08:48I think Edmonton has really taken over.
08:50I think they dominated game one.
08:53And outside of that third period where Dallas had three straight power play goals and ended up winning that game with five goals in the third period, I think Edmonton has been the better team.
09:02They've tilted the ice in their direction.
09:05And they're certainly generating more offense from, you know, those greasy goals, as I talked about before, those become more important in the postseason when defenses are better, goalies are better,
09:16defensive structures, and teams are just better.
09:19If you can't score in front of your own net, you just can't win in the playoffs.
09:23Edmonton does that better than anybody.
09:25And I don't see them stopping, despite Jake Ottinger, who's been playing well.
09:28He played well in prior to this series, and he's played well in this series.
09:32I know that 6-1 score in game three doesn't look like he did.
09:35He stopped everything from long range and anything from the tops of the circles down.
09:40He was pretty good.
09:41It's just Edmonton just comes at you too hard.
09:44They've had the high danger shots on goal advantage in each of these games.
09:47I think they're inevitable for their second straight cup final appearance.
09:53Yeah, the Oilers laying a game and a half in that series spread for Edmonton to catch that bet.
09:58They would win this series in no longer than six games.
10:01So you mentioned it right there, Troy.
10:03We look at the Stanley Cup odds right now.
10:05The Florida Panthers, one win away from getting back to their third consecutive cup final.
10:09As our reigning champs are the favorites at plus 105.
10:12The Oilers not all that far behind at plus 145.
10:16Of course, if it is Florida and Edmonton again, that's a rematch of last year's Stanley Cup final.
10:22Would it lead to the same result this time around?
10:25In my opinion, it wouldn't.
10:26I like Edmonton.
10:27I picked them at the start of the postseason.
10:30I'll mention it again.
10:32They dominate in front of the net offensively,
10:34but they're also very good defensively at keeping opponents out of the middle of the ice.
10:39So Stuart Skinner, Calvin Pickard, their goalie tandem for Edmonton,
10:44it really doesn't matter who's in between the pipes.
10:47Edmonton plays so well structurally on the defensive zone.
10:51They keep their opponents outside of the middle.
10:54They're really good.
10:55The other thing that I think why I like Edmonton,
10:59remember they'll have home ice advantage in the Stanley Cup final if they get there.
11:02I like that, you know, playing.
11:05I expect a long series.
11:06Those two teams, as we saw them go seven games last year, they're very evenly matched.
11:11Edmonton having the home ice advantage with Canada, who hasn't won a Stanley Cup since 1993,
11:17presumably all cheering for them.
11:18I think that's too much mojo for Edmonton not to seize control.
11:22It should be a great final if we do get there with those two teams.
11:25If we take a look at the Conn Smythe Trophy working here, Troy.
11:28Conor McDavid, a plus 190 price right now in the FanDuel Sportsbook,
11:31followed by Sergey Bobrovsky, the goalie here for the Florida Panthers,
11:34Barkoff, Ranton, and Drysaddle, and Kunchuck.
11:36Do you agree, plus 190 price on Conor McDavid, if they get there,
11:40they win the Stanley Cup, it's Connors to take home?
11:43Absolutely.
11:44Conor McDavid, there might not be a more deserving player to win a Stanley Cup
11:52and a Conn Smythe than Conor McDavid.
11:53He's been great for the last five years.
11:56He's been the best player in hockey.
11:57I totally agree with that line.
11:59I just think it's going to get more expensive,
12:01so you might as well jump on it now for McDavid to win the Conn Smythe.
12:05No doubt about it.
12:06If the Oilers get back to the Cup Final,
12:08Conor McDavid is not just going to be the favorite to win the Conn Smythe Award,
12:11but probably closer to even money, if not minus money,
12:14by the time game number one of the Stanley Cup Final begins.
12:17Troy Perlowitz from the NHL joining us here on this Tuesday on the early line.
12:21Troy, great breakdowns, man.
12:23We appreciate it.
12:24Enjoy game four tonight in Edmonton.
12:25Thanks so much, guys.
12:27I really appreciate you having me.
12:28Of course, man.
12:29We appreciate the time, as always.
12:31Hour number three, our third and final,
12:33coming up on the other side of the break.