Analyzing Aaron Judge's Staggering Lead in the AL MVP Race

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00:00the american league mvp as of this moment is clearly aaron judge uh but you've said this

00:06the sustainability of what he's doing is improbable but even if he tapers off even if he

00:11regresses back to to whatever the mean may be i think he's already still done enough to stay

00:17in the public eye and stay in the writer's eye right it's still a media award american league

00:22mvp is it judges straight away where's value well it is uh we even had the conversation how long

00:28could he miss time for and still be the leader in minus money and i think a month like i i think he

00:35could miss a month and i don't think any of the guys are catching up to him uh the guys are closest

00:39on this board bobby witta plus 1500 alex bregman he's already hurt so he could take that off the

00:43board so he's gonna miss time uh gunner henderson has done nothing and the orioles are irrelevant so

00:49strike him the interesting guy so far to me is jose ramirez because every year annually he is

00:56overlooked for this award and every year he is a one-man band there and and this year maybe more

01:02than any other because josh nailer is gone and he is somehow just getting it done i know stephen

01:07quan is a nice player but he has really very little around him in that lineup and the guardians are

01:11hanging around the standings and they're going to be relevant and they're going to get shane beaver

01:14back eventually so jose ramirez a plus 9 000 is intriguing to me if you're just looking for

01:19something else to bet here because i think you can at least make the the case potentially that at some

01:25point that number shrinks significantly jose ramirez is a 40 40 kind of talent and there is a script you

01:31could write where aaron judge regresses a little bit and you know stops leading the league in

01:34everything as he has been which has been spectacular if he slumps or if there's an injury and he's had

01:39some injury issues in the past let's not pretend like you know aaron judge is you know without any

01:44sort of foot problems or other issues that he's had in his career and then there's also the question of

01:49you know in big moments what aaron judge has and hasn't done and if the yankees should find

01:55themselves in a pennant race somehow and for this division at the end of the year and he falls short

02:00that's going to be a big negative hit on aaron judge with all the stats because it's the inverse

02:04right it's a media award and as great as the media is that they want to applaud you when you're doing

02:10great they also want to kill you when you're doing poorly or not showing up in big spots especially in

02:15new york that's the only narrative you could write for somebody else to win this award i don't think

02:19it's a best-selling narrative that i want to sell out there but i will say it's aaron judges to lose

02:26and it's really difficult to see anybody else winning this award so if you didn't bet

02:29at pre-season the value is probably gone