Categoria
🗞
NovitàTrascrizione
00:00Tra poco nuova puntata di Stay Live e ci occuperemo del mercato obbligazionario cercando di capire come si sta comportando in questo particolare contesto dopo la tregua tra Stati Uniti e Cina sui dazi è ancora più conveniente e ci sono più opportunità rispetto all'azionario e all'interno del mercato obbligazionario il segmento dei corporate hybrid come si sta comportando dove vediamo le maggiori opportunità facciamo il punto tra un attimo dopo la sigla.
00:30Ben tornati a Stay Live torniamo ad occuparci del mercato obbligazionario di quello che è successo negli ultimi mesi all'inizio di questo 2025 anche in relazione a quanto accaduto con i dati.
01:00I dati voluti poi in parte ritirati dall'amministrazione Trump e torniamo a occuparci insieme a Mark Lakratz corporate hybrid portfolio manager di Edmond Rothschild Asset Management. Ben arrivato Mark.
01:11Thank you for having me.
01:12Allora, qual è l'andamento oggi del mercato obbligazionario? Quanto ha inciso la tregua dei dazi tra Cina e Stati Uniti ed è ancora oggi competitivo rispetto al mercato azionario?
01:22Si.
01:23Maybe I will start with the good news. The good news is despite all the volatility we had in the market regarding spreads, regarding rates, if you were invested from the beginning of the year in the fixed income market, you would have made money so far.
01:38And this is true for all the credit segments. So it is true for government bonds, but also for more credit segments such as high yield emerging or corporate hybrids.
01:49And the reason behind that is that the yield were high at the beginning of the year and it offers you a cushion against the volatility we just saw during the trade war episode.
02:03Concentriamoci proprio allora sui corporate hybrids che sono in larga espansione all'interno del mercato obbligazionario. Quali sono i principali trend in questo settore, Mark?
02:13I think there is one hot topic in our asset class right now. It's the globalization of the asset class. So it used to be a very European centric asset class dominated by European issuers from France, from Italia.
02:26But there has been a change in methodology late last year at Moody's. And because of that change, the asset class is becoming way more appealing to US issuers.
02:36And we see a very fast growth of the asset class in North America. And to give you some numbers, we expect 40 billion of new issuers per year over the next eight years.
02:49Currently, corporate hybrids, they account for 5% of the corporate IG indices in Europe. It's only 1% in the US. And the IG indices in the US, they are 7 trillion against only 3 trillion in Europe.
03:06So you can imagine the growth. And as a proof of what I just said, we expect this year the issuance of US dollar corporate hybrids to outpace the issuance of European corporate hybrids.
03:22Allora, in questo segmento quali opportunità di investimento vedete da qui ai prossimi mesi, Mark?
03:27I would say it's the asset class as a world is an opportunity because we like to say it's a defensive beater. So it's a way to seize the current high yield that we have in the market without taking too much credit risk.
03:42So instead of doing high yield, instead of doing maybe more credit risk, you can just use the subordination of that asset class to get the same yield with less default risk.
03:54Also, we think there will be a lot of opportunities in the primary market. We saw last week a lot of issuers coming to the market.
04:03We can name Air France, we can name Prismian in Italy, Arbertis in Spain. The technicals are pretty good. The books were oversubscribed 2, 4, 5, 6 times for some of the bonds.
04:16And we think the appetite is there and there is room for spread to compress from here.
04:22So to give you an idea of the performance we expect, last year in 2024, we had the performance in the double digit return.
04:31We think it would be hard to repeat that in 2025, but we are pretty confident that we can achieve mid to high single digit return in Euro for 2025.
04:42We have to understand that there are good opportunities in this segment.
04:46Thank you Mark Lacratz, Corporate Hybrids and Portfolio Manager of Edmund Rothschild Asset Management.
04:52Thank you for being with us.
04:53Thank you.
04:54And as always, for having seen this episode of Stay Live, we'll see you in the next one.
04:58We'll see you on financiallounge.com for all the news of the economy and finance.
05:03We'll see you in the next one.
05:21We'll see you in the next one.
05:22We'll see you on the next one.
05:25Grazie a tutti