Does Erdogan seek to 'drive wedge' between opposition and Kurds by 'winning over' Kurdish support?

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00:00A historic announcement with, after four decades of insurgency,

00:04Turkey's separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party, the PKK, announcing its own dissolution.

00:11This is the follow-up to that March 1st announcement of a unilateral ceasefire

00:16by longtime jail leader Ibrahim Ocalan.

00:23It's a decision that could pave the way towards ending four decades of armed conflict with the

00:28Turkish state. The Kurdistan's Workers' Party, or PKK, has announced it has decided to dissolve

00:34its organisational structure and end its method of armed struggle.

00:38The decision was announced by a media outlet close to the group days after it convened a

00:42party congress in northern Iraq.

00:44It follows a call from jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan back in February,

00:49who urged his fighters to disarm and dissolve.

00:53On the 1st of March, the PKK had already announced a unilateral ceasefire,

00:57but had attached conditions, including the creation of a legal framework for peace negotiations.

01:03Monday's announcement is yet another step towards peace, and could have far-reaching

01:07political and security consequences for the region, including in neighbouring Syria,

01:11where Kurds control the northeast.

01:14Abdullah Ocalan founded the PKK in 1978.

01:17Its initial aim was the creation of an independent Kurdistan in southeast Turkey.

01:22But in recent years, it's called for greater autonomy within Turkey instead.

01:26Tens of thousands of people have been killed in the fighting.

01:30The group is still considered a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the EU and the US.

01:35A spokesperson for Turkey's AK party says the PKK's decision is an important step towards

01:41a terror-free country, and that the disbanding process will be closely monitored in the field

01:45by the state.

01:46And for more, we're joined by Amaran Zaman, the chief correspondent covering the Middle East

01:52and North Africa for the news website, Al Monitor.

01:55Thank you for being with us here on France 24.

01:57Thanks for having me.

01:58First, that March announcement by Ibrahim Ocalan of a ceasefire, and now this.

02:04How do you explain it?

02:05Well, you have to look at the background.

02:09Turkey began secret talks with Abdullah Ocalan, who is, you know, in a Turkish prison, has

02:15been there since 1999, back in April of last year.

02:19And this was immediately after the Turkish ruling party, the AKP, lost local elections.

02:29And this is because the opposition defeated them with the support of Kurdish voters.

02:34So what's been going on essentially is Erdogan, the Turkish president, trying to drive a wedge

02:42between the opposition and the Kurds and to win over the Kurds to his side.

02:46Why? Because his term expires in 2028, and he cannot run a third time, and he's desperate

02:53to remain in power, and he believes the only way he can do that right now is if he can win

02:59Turkish support, rather Kurdish support, sorry, to change the constitution in ways that would

03:05allow him to do that.

03:07And so this is the background to all of this.

03:10And we have plenty of reactions coming in.

03:13Let's start with that of Recep Tayyip Erdogan's own government.

03:17Let's listen to the foreign minister.

03:25We don't have that soundbite.

03:27But basically, hailing the move.

03:29However, there's no counterparts right now.

03:32There's no, the Turkish government didn't announce, well, the PKK has been asking for a legal framework

03:40for peace negotiations, nothing on that, no guarantees.

03:44This is very much a unilateral announcement.

03:48Very much so.

03:49I mean, the process from the get-go has been one of basically the government dictating the

03:55terms of peace, if that's what we can call it, to the PKK, saying, you have to capitulate,

04:01do what I tell you to do.

04:02And then we can talk about, eventually talk about some reforms that would help address some

04:08of the, you know, issues that the Kurds care about.

04:12But, so of course, that begs the question of why would the PKK even agree to doing something

04:18like this, you know, 40 years of fighting in the name of winning rights for their people.

04:25And they've been burned before in negotiations.

04:27Well, yes, they have indeed.

04:29This is the third time this government has been engaged in peace talks with them.

04:33But the key issue to understand here is that Abdullah Erjalan is almost a godlike figure

04:40in that movement.

04:40And his word is enough and has proved to be enough for his fighters to go along with

04:48what he's saying.

04:49But we also have to note that things have changed quite dramatically in recent years.

04:55The Turkish military has gained significant, I would say, dominance in the field against

05:03the PKK with these drones that we all hear about that are used in other conflicts, Turkish-made

05:08drones, have put the rebels squarely on the defensive.

05:12And in Syria, of course, with the collapse of the Assad regime, Iran is out and the Russians

05:17no longer have the same kind of influence they did, which has reduced the PKK's ability to

05:24maneuver inside Syria, which was another very important theater for their operations, because

05:31we all know that the Syrian Kurdish group that's in power there has very close links to the

05:37PKK, with many of them actually having fought inside the PKK for long years.

05:42Yeah, and the Syrian Kurds who at first said, this doesn't concern us, but we've had in the

05:50last hours the SDF commander, Maslum Abdi on X, formerly Twitter, stating that it's a decision

06:00worthy of respect.

06:03So what do you make of that statement?

06:05Well, they're kind of, in a sense, the winners in all of this.

06:10Why?

06:11Because as a result of these talks and the PKK's decision to go along with what Erdogan told

06:18them to do, which is to end the fight with Turkey, Turkey has stopped its attacks against

06:25the Syrian Kurds, because as you know, since 2016, they have, Turkey has launched repeated

06:33ground offenses, offensives, it's been...

06:36But does that have more to do with the PKK or the fact that you have the new masters of

06:42Damascus who've concluded a deal with the SDF?

06:45Well, one would argue that if Turkey had not green-lighted that agreement, it may not have

06:52happened, because we all know that Turkey does have quite some influence over the new masters

06:59of Damascus, over the HTS, over Jolani, or Ahmad al-Shara, as he now calls himself, his

07:06real name.

07:06So, in fact, when Turkey was saying that we will never allow any kind of Kurdish, you

07:15know, autonomy, nothing, and when they spoke of Abdi, he was a big terrorist, and they,

07:21in fact, tried to kill him several times.

07:24This is what Abdi himself told me when I interviewed him on several occasions.

07:29And he's on Turkey's most wanted list of terrorists.

07:33But right now, Turkey has stopped using the word terrorist when it refers to the Syrian

07:40Kurdish groups, and it's allowed this agreement in Aleppo, this is a bit in the weeds, whereby

07:47the Kurds of Aleppo are allowed to run their own neighborhoods there, provide their own security,

07:57maintain their own schools.

07:58Turkey has allowed that agreement, which is seen as a blueprint for the future of the

08:04broader Kurdish region in Syria, to go forward.

08:08And it's more than likely that Turkey is also talking to the Syrian Kurdish leadership now

08:15about other arrangements going forward.

08:19Emperor and Zaman, at the outset of the conversation, you said it was all, from Ankara's perspective,

08:24it's all about that constitutional reform that allows Recep Tayyip Erdogan to seek another

08:31term.

08:33At this point in time, what are the chances that this will lead to some kind of, like you

08:39say, recognition of rights for Kurds in the southeast of the country and elsewhere?

08:45It's a big question because, you know, he has to take public reaction into account, Erdogan.

08:52And, you know, we know that he's constantly looking at the poll numbers to see where this

08:57is going in terms of how the public is reacting, because this whole process was shrouded in secrecy.

09:04The public wasn't really prepared for it.

09:08And we now know that some concessions are being made whereby Ujolan, for example, is being

09:14moved to more comfortable surroundings on that island prison where he lives.

09:21And, of course, for many Turks, he was long called a baby killer and seen as such, because

09:28that was the official narrative about him, the PKK.

09:32And, of course, many Turkish soldiers have died fighting the PKK.

09:36So they're wondering, you know, what is going on?

09:39And speaking of people in jail, the leader of the center-left opposition, the mayor of Istanbul,

09:45is currently behind bars.

09:48The CHP's party leader putting out some statements on social media saying the PKK decision is critical.

09:57I'll read to you another one here, Amber, and saying the CHP will not allow people's demands

10:02for peace and democracy to be exploited for personal political purposes.

10:07Is that a remark directed at Recep Tayyip Erdogan or at Ujolan?

10:12I would say more at Erdogan.

10:14Of course, the fact of the matter is that, you know, normally this would be a historic moment,

10:20time for celebration, jubilation, you know, ending, four decades of conflict.

10:26People won't be dying anymore, hopefully.

10:28But it's all kind of, we're all left with a bit of a bitter taste in our mouths because,

10:34well, this is happening on the Kurdish front.

10:37The main opposition pro-secular party is under tremendous pressure from the government.

10:42As you pointed out, the mayor of Istanbul, who is seen as the man most likely to be able

10:47to beat Erdogan in a presidential election, has been locked up on very thinly supported corruption charges.

10:54Many other CHP opposition politicians are also being prosecuted, jailed, ousted from office, elected mayors.

11:05So, you know, how can we talk about democracy?

11:08Well, you know, on the one hand, this is happening, right?

11:14So it's a very bizarre, let's say, moment.

11:19And it's too early to know, as you say, which way public opinion is going to go.

11:25Indeed.

11:26All right.

11:26Amber and Zaman, I want to thank you so much for being with us here.

11:28Well, thank you for having me.

11:30Stay with us.

11:31There's much more to come, more news, plus the day's business and sports.

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