- 5/10/2025
In this Deep Dive with Lt. Col. Daniel Davis, we explore Trump's pursuit of ceasefire fantasies amidst growing tensions 🛑🇺🇸.
Meanwhile, Moscow celebrates its WWII victory, reflecting on history while navigating modern geopolitical challenges 💥🎖️.
Daniel Davis gives his take on the clash of visions and the road to potential peace in a volatile world 🌍.
#DanielDavis #TrumpCeasefire #MoscowVictory #Geopolitics #USForeignPolicy #CeasefireTalks #RussiaUkraine #VictoryDay2025 #WWIILegacy #DiplomaticSolutions #USPolitics #ColdWarEchoes #MilitaryAnalysis #PeaceAndDiplomacy #MoscowCelebrates #GlobalTensions #NATO #ConflictResolution #StrategyTalks #DeepDiveAnalysis
Meanwhile, Moscow celebrates its WWII victory, reflecting on history while navigating modern geopolitical challenges 💥🎖️.
Daniel Davis gives his take on the clash of visions and the road to potential peace in a volatile world 🌍.
#DanielDavis #TrumpCeasefire #MoscowVictory #Geopolitics #USForeignPolicy #CeasefireTalks #RussiaUkraine #VictoryDay2025 #WWIILegacy #DiplomaticSolutions #USPolitics #ColdWarEchoes #MilitaryAnalysis #PeaceAndDiplomacy #MoscowCelebrates #GlobalTensions #NATO #ConflictResolution #StrategyTalks #DeepDiveAnalysis
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NewsTranscript
00:00May 9th, 2025, the 80th anniversary of the end of what the Russians called the Great Patriotic War, which we call World War II.
00:10The parade came off today without a hitch in Moscow.
00:14It was a big parade. Gary's showing you some of the scenes from it there.
00:18Huge crowds. Xi Jinping was sitting right next to Vladimir Putin on the dais.
00:23And most importantly, there were no drones in the air. There was no strikes on the Capitol.
00:27Well, it's unclear if Ukraine even attempted to do so.
00:31They certainly did, firing hundreds, well over 500 drones of various calibers at Moscow in the days leading up to this.
00:39But I suspect that probably even China and the United States and others said, hey, yeah, wave off.
00:46You didn't get anything through. You didn't hit the place before that.
00:49Don't do it now because we did cause a major, major international incident.
00:53So it appears that that message finally did get through.
00:56In any case, whether they tried or not, they didn't succeed.
01:00And Russia, you know, was able to bring it off.
01:02And they had, I think, 20 some odd heads of state of various countries, three of which were from European countries.
01:08So that part was fine.
01:11So now then Russia is ready to move on to whatever's next.
01:14I'm going to play a bit of a statement that Putin made toward the end here to kind of wrap this up.
01:20But before I get to what Putin had to say, I want to get to what the Americans are saying and what some of the Europeans are saying, because even though the Russians were having this parade, of course, other people want to say, hey, let's don't.
01:32They tried to rain on their parade and trying to keep the focus elsewhere.
01:35Anything besides this, because, listen, we've got to be we've got to be honest with it.
01:39Right. These are really powerful images.
01:42And these kinds of images are going on all around the world.
01:44And people who are not invested completely in one side or the other are looking at this and going, hmm, when you take a look at what the Western side looks like and when you take a look at what the Russian side looks like, which side looks like the more powerful entity?
02:01The words or the images speak for themselves.
02:04So that's that's the view right there from the Russian side.
02:07Switch back over to the U.S. side yesterday.
02:11Yesterday, State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce was asked, hey, by the way, what is the status of this ceasefire?
02:19Because we mean, we've been talking about this for a couple of months now that Trump got Zelensky to agree to an unconditional 30 day ceasefire.
02:27And then from that point forward, he started trying to get the Russians to agree to a 30 day unconditional ceasefire, which obviously hasn't happened.
02:34Yesterday, Tammy Bruce was asked about the progress.
02:36Is it still your position that complete, unconditional 30 day long ceasefire should be the first?
02:44Well, it should be forever.
02:45I mean, you can't discuss, as the president has noted and the secretary, you can't discuss what the results are for peace when people are still getting slaughtered.
02:56How how did that can't work?
02:58It's a very low bar for a first step.
03:02And that is remains the first step.
03:05It has to happen.
03:06We've been very clear, the secretary in particular, that this can only begin any discussion regarding how the peace endures is when you have a ceasefire,
03:18which is frankly the first key part of of good faith regarding what you intend for the future.
03:23OK, look, if you're talking to an American audience only, that works because you're mocking the other side and you're saying, man, what is wrong?
03:32This is elementary.
03:33What is wrong with Putin?
03:34What is wrong with these Russians?
03:35They don't get these most basic, obvious things.
03:38OK, to say that the only way to end a war is to have first a 30 day or any version or duration of a ceasefire and only then do you talk about the subject.
03:50That's a way.
03:51And it has been done plenty of times.
03:53But you try to have this mocking thing that says that's the only way.
03:57And this is elementary.
03:58And what's wrong with them to not do it?
04:00Zelensky agreed to it two months ago and the thing still hasn't happened.
04:03And in our position remains, that is a primary thing to have to seek to try to attain.
04:10If that's one of our primary things to attain, that's like saying, hey, I would like it if Mickey Mouse ears just popped up on my head while I'm on camera here.
04:20Well, nothing happened.
04:21That's about the same chance that you're going to get Russia to agree to a 30 day unconditional ceasefire.
04:27They have said that from the outset.
04:28They've said, why would we do that?
04:30We are on the advantage militarily.
04:33We are driving them to the West.
04:35They cannot stop our onsite having it for like, I think it's like 30, 32, some odd consecutive months.
04:41Why would they agree to a ceasefire that would only help the Ukraine side?
04:45So if you're setting that up as a prerequisite to get to the second part, then you're guaranteeing you're not going to get to the second part.
04:52But that's not the only word out of the United States today or yesterday, because Vice President Vance, I think less than hours later after this was made, he was also interviewed and also asked about the situation.
05:04But he had a slightly different take on where it may go.
05:06What would bother me is if we conclude that the Russians are not engaging in the negotiation in good faith.
05:13And if that happens, yeah, we're going to walk away.
05:16The president's going to say we're out of this thing.
05:18And what that's going to mean fundamentally, I think, is that both Russia and Ukraine are going to be left to settle this thing without the advice and without the mediation of the United States.
05:29I don't think that's good for anybody.
05:30I don't think it's good for us.
05:31I don't think it's good for Russia or Ukraine.
05:33But we can only lead these guys to the well.
05:36We can't force them to drink.
05:37And that's what the president has done.
05:39And I do think we've had some diplomatic breakthroughs.
05:41Again, the fact the Russians are offering a peace plan at all, that's a breakthrough.
05:45The fact the Ukrainians are offering a concrete proposal, that's a breakthrough.
05:49But we've got to try to get these sides a little bit closer together to achieve a lasting peace.
05:53We're not there yet.
05:54We'll keep working on it until we decide that we ultimately can't make any more progress.
05:58And then you would walk away.
06:00We would.
06:00We would.
06:02OK, that was pretty categorical there at the end.
06:05We'll see if that plays out.
06:06But we need to look at a couple of things.
06:08First of all, the discontinuity between those two statements may be a mere hours apart where you have Tammy Bruce just almost hitting the lectern talking about how this is a prerequisite.
06:20We've got to have this.
06:21And why aren't they doing this simple thing like a 30 day ceasefire?
06:25And then you have the vice president saying we'd like it to go this way, but you can't you know, we can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink.
06:31But look, if you then say as the vice president, we can't make them come to a deal and we're going to walk if it doesn't.
06:41And we're asking them to do with the two sides to come together to make these arrangements.
06:45If they don't, then we'll walk.
06:46Now, that was the most categorical I've heard any American to include the president or Marco Rubio, any of those to just say, yeah, we'll walk.
06:55So now we just did a show yesterday where we showed you it's been weeks since they've been saying it's days away.
07:02Now, three weeks from today, the first time on April 18th that Marco Rubio said that and the weeks just kept on rolling.
07:09The days kept on rolling, et cetera.
07:12Maybe they actually are getting close to it now.
07:14We'll see how that works out.
07:16But if you're actually trying to somehow coerce the two sides to at least move in the same direction, then that's not going to do it.
07:26Because by telling the Russians, the ones in the unequivocal and irrevocable military advantage over the Ukraines, that if the two sides don't come together, we're going to walk.
07:38Where is any motivation on the Russian side to do anything except just kind of go?
07:44All right.
07:45What's that deadline again?
07:46How many more days?
07:47You see that you incentivize Russia to do nothing.
07:51Now, listen, if that's your plan, if your plan is to walk away, there is a much better way to do it.
07:57And that is to not be seen as impotent at not being able to make a negotiated work, but to be seen as proactive and realistic and recognizing this power dynamic, this imbalance that can't be breached and say, OK, our recommendation is to get the best ugly deal you can get right now.
08:17And that's it.
08:17We won't support anymore.
08:18We're not going to continue to support a war that can't succeed.
08:23We're not going to enable you with more weapons, ammunition, training, intelligence, et cetera, targeting data.
08:29We're not going to give you that so that you can at least keep fighting and keep dying in more numbers and then just let things take on a life of their own until the Russians move on.
08:38And then I'll just claim, well, we tried, but nobody did anything.
08:41And that's not the good way to do it because everyone sees through this.
08:46No one's fooled by this, or at least no one of any consequence.
08:49You may get some of the population, especially some of your supporters, to say, oh, yeah, he did.
08:54OK, you don't need to get them.
08:56They're already on your side.
08:57But to everyone else, it makes us look impotent.
09:01It makes us look powerless.
09:03It's like I said, first of all, you can't make a negotiated settlement.
09:05You can't compel even the Ukraine side, much less the European side.
09:09You can't compel them to come together.
09:11And you're utterly powerless to get the Russians to do anything.
09:15And then it's going to end that same way anyway.
09:17That's already written in stone.
09:19The end is known, and it's that one.
09:22So why not make the best of it and be more proactive to where you actually have agency and there's things that you can do to try and to get the two sides together,
09:33or at least, if nothing else, to try and say, all right, we're consciously going to go down this path here because it's the only rational path available.
09:44It doesn't make any sense to even pretend in these other directions.
09:48Mickey Mouse ears aren't going to pop on your ears no matter how much you wish it, no matter how hard you hit the lectern.
09:53It's not going to happen.
09:55So instead of looking powerless and foolish, how about looking realistic and strong to say, hey, I'm going to make this tough decision,
10:01but it's the only one available to us and the only thing that's going to keep more Ukrainians alive.
10:05That's the other thing.
10:06Don't forget that.
10:07If you take that course of action, you actually do what President Trump said he wanted to do, which is end the killing in the war faster.
10:15That's the way you get that done.
10:17You can't stop the killing by making a proactive decision.
10:20Our support will stop, and we are now saying it's between you guys.
10:24Now, it's important to understand, you know, where the Russians are on this, right?
10:28So I just showed you the United States side.
10:31In a minute, I'm going to show you the European side.
10:33We already know what the Ukraine side is.
10:35Zelensky has never changed from I want more ammunition.
10:38I want more artillery, especially.
10:40I want more air defense.
10:41I want more jets.
10:42And I want more money.
10:44And then I want it.
10:45And I want Mickey Mouse ears.
10:47He hasn't changed any of that.
10:49Russians also haven't changed their side.
10:51Here is from December, this past December, and it hasn't changed.
10:55Here is what both President Putin and Sergei Lavrov have said specifically on the two issues we're talking about.
11:01Here is a complete 30-day ceasefire, unconditional ceasefire, and an end to the war.
11:09What we need is not just a ceasefire.
11:11We need peace, long-lasting peace.
11:14We cannot be satisfied with empty talk.
11:17So far, all we've heard is talk about the need to come up with some kind of truce.
11:22And it's not particularly hidden that this truce is needed in order to gain time to continue pumping weapons into Ukraine.
11:29A truce is a road to nowhere.
11:33I mean, how can you argue with that?
11:34Russia has never said anything different.
11:36Subsequent to those two comments here, you had President Trump, after he got inaugurated on January the 20th,
11:42got on the phone with Putin and said, hey, I got Zelensky to agree to a 30-day ceasefire.
11:47What do you think?
11:48And then Putin said, oh, I tell you what, I want to work with you.
11:52I want to be as cooperative as we can because the Russians, like Trump has said also, are looking already beyond the war.
11:58They're looking to a time to try to get back to normalized relations because they know this war, the conclusion has already been decided,
12:04but the outcome is still open and the timing is still unknown.
12:08So he says, I want to work with the United States.
12:11I want to figure this out.
12:12So I'll tell you what, I'll consider the issue, but not really, because he said there are huge caveats that have to go along with this.
12:22Nuance, I think, was the word that he used, at least as translated into English, which were huge.
12:26You may remember we had this whole thing on the show here where we talked about who's going to monitor this.
12:32It's this huge 2,000-kilometer front.
12:35What are the conditions?
12:36What are the penalties of whoever violates it?
12:40Who's going to hold people accountable?
12:41You know, all these kinds of things.
12:42Lots and lots of logistic issues.
12:44And he said that we won't do this until there is a term, a negotiated settlement that has been agreed to and the fundamentals of the outcome have been agreed to in advance.
12:54That includes denazification and demilitarization, as Russia defines it, which in practice meant there was never going to be a ceasefire.
13:02I mean, that's been evident from the beginning.
13:04So that's where we still are right now.
13:07And the Russian side has not changed from any of that, even during the time they said they would contemplate it.
13:11Their conditions never changed, and those are still the case today.
13:15We had the deputy UN ambassador for Russia on our show, and we point blank asked him what is going to happen if you don't get all of your terms.
13:24And he said, evidence, it's happening already.
13:27We haven't changed.
13:27We'll continue fighting.
13:29So this notion that Zelensky keeps on saying that, well, we've agreed to a ceasefire unconditional for two months, and these darn Russians are keeping on firing missiles.
13:39They're keeping on going at the front.
13:40Now, that proves who doesn't want an end to the war.
13:44Obviously, to anybody other than some Americans or Westerners and your Ukrainians, everyone already understands that Russia is in the dominant position.
13:54You're not.
13:55Why would they stop?
13:56And they won't.
13:57So, again, you come off looking like I want Mickey Mouse ears live on camera while we're talking.
14:05It just didn't happen.
14:06And so that kind of thing is never going to.
14:09And all it's going to do, folks, it's not funny.
14:12It's going to get more people killed.
14:14It's going to get more Ukrainians killed because you can't change the outcome by trying to mock the other side and to shame them into something when they're looking with disdain on you as it is.
14:24Now, it's not just Zelensky.
14:26It's not just the United States.
14:27There are also several Europeans.
14:30And this is the same news that came out today.
14:34President Macron stressed that everyone must now work immediately to achieve a ceasefire without pretense or delaying maneuvers.
14:41Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire almost two months ago.
14:43I now expect Russia to do the same.
14:46Otherwise, we will be ready to respond decisively together with all our Europeans in a close coordination with the United States, the French president wrote on an ex post.
14:54Also on Friday, a new German Chancellor Merz threatened Russia with new sanctions.
15:00Merz also held a phone call with President Trump.
15:03Chancellor said he had expressed his support to Trump for a 30-day ceasefire.
15:06Trump, after his conversation with Zelensky on the May 8th, said that he ideally would ideally would like to see a 30-day unconditional ceasefire and the possibility of new sanctions on Russia.
15:17Listen, you can want that all day long.
15:20And we have been wanting it all term long ever since Trump came into office.
15:25But those things haven't happened and they're not going to happen.
15:28So why do we keep trying to achieve the unachievable?
15:31Why do we keep trying to go down a path that can't succeed?
15:34It's puzzling to me.
15:36I get politics.
15:38I get you want to put a good face on things.
15:40But, folks, there comes a point to where when you try to put a good face on things in blatant evidence that what you're trying to achieve isn't working and you're getting more people killed, then it doesn't.
15:53It's not politics because now it's counterproductive for you, even on the political level, even on the messaging level, because you can't keep saying things that are more and more evidently untrue.
16:04I showed you at the top of the show here that statement or the images from the parade.
16:10You know, when you're talking about just visuals and what messages resonate with people around the world, when you see that kind of power rolling down the street and it was quite a spectacle.
16:21I watched a little bit, but I didn't watch a whole lot, but enough to see that those are some powerful images.
16:26When you juxtapose them from the Ukraine side.
16:30I mean, they have no parade.
16:32They have no victory of any kind.
16:35No evidences of strength.
16:37Only Zelensky keep on saying things like he wants Mickey Mouse ears to pop out of his head.
16:42That's how it's being viewed.
16:43And if you're trying to have this political situation or messaging to try and sway people to think things, it doesn't work when the physical evidence so overwhelmingly shows the opposite to be true.
16:54Because now then the opposite also works against you, that you're viewed with less and less credibility and weaker and weaker.
17:02And President Trump doesn't like to be seen as weak.
17:05And if he doesn't, then he needs to change course pretty quickly.
17:08So that comment there by J.D. Vance that, you know, yeah, we're ready to walk.
17:12I mean, he should already have done it, but there's no time like the president.
17:17I mean, I'm saying within the next week, before one week, before next Friday, the best thing he can do is to say, OK, we came to the fact, even the better one of the Sunday talk shows.
17:28Perfect opportunity for that because everybody's watching for that.
17:30That's where President Trump should send out whether it's J.D. Vance again, Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff, whoever needs to go and say, all right, president has finally come to a conclusion.
17:41We tried everything. It didn't work. Now it's up to the Europeans and the Ukrainians and the Russians.
17:48If they want to keep fighting, more power to them. I think it's a bad idea.
17:52We're not going to underwrite failure anymore. We are not going to send any more American money, American weapons, American ammunition and put the American prestige and name and reputation on the line for something that is going to lose.
18:06We're not going to do that. And we're going to move forward.
18:08That that'll make all the supporters unhappy and they'll, you know, yell and scream or whatever.
18:14That's up to them. They can do that. But history will show that is the right course of action because the alternative to keep the fiction going on, you'll still suffer all of those things.
18:24I just mentioned all the crying and everything else and they will lose as well.
18:28So it'll be a double loss. So you're going to take a hit one way or the other.
18:32Take one hit and then be seen as in the right position later on, as opposed to taking a double negative hit, because that is where we are.
18:39Now, before I let you go today, I want to show you one other thing, but it's kind of embarrassing for our side in the days leading up to this.
18:49You may recall I mentioned that Germany and a couple of others in the Western European celebrated World War Two victory day yesterday on the 8th.
18:58And Germany in particular said Russia and Belarus were disinvited.
19:02They couldn't even send diplomatic personnel. We're keeping them off.
19:05We didn't talk about any of that kind of thing here.
19:07Even today with this victory, I looked through The Washington Post and The New York Times this morning, a couple of other Western European publications.
19:15You had to scroll way, way down to find anything at all.
19:18And it was kind of a small issue here and it had a kind of a neutral headline, whereas, of course, Russia is somewhat different.
19:25Well, Russia did invite everybody, everybody who was a member of the World War Two coalition that beat Nazi Germany.
19:33They invited them. Three European heads of state went.
19:36I think Serbia, Fico from Slovakia and Orban from Hungary.
19:42I believe those are the three that were there.
19:44But in the speech, too, President Putin lauded his people who were fighting there.
19:51But then he also lauded without without a caveat.
19:56He lauded the others in the West who were part of this.
19:59I would love to see something like this on the American side where you can even be opposed to somebody.
20:04You could be having a proxy war against them, but you still recognize something that happened in the past.
20:08It was a jointly benefit for the two sides.
20:10Unfortunately, so far, it's only on the Russian side.
20:14We чтим каждого ветерана Великой Отечественной войны.
20:20Склоняем головы перед памятью всех, кто отдал свою жизнь за победу.
20:26Перед памятью сыновей, дочерей, отцов, матерей, дедов, прадедов, мужей, жен, братьев, сестер, родных, друзей.
20:42Склоняем головы перед нашими боевыми товарищами, погибшими смертью храбрых, в праведном бою за Россию.
20:53Объявляется минута молчания.
20:55Сnung, вне trial.
21:05Граждое питание.
21:07Траведо.
21:07С юга.
21:08Всп рай.
21:09Всп лаг institutions в гражданиню finished.
21:09Суга.
21:10Всп
21:13Суга.
21:14Всп рай.
21:14Вспадай.
23:53where can we go from here? We need to understand that Russia is not bent on conquesting all of
23:59Europe. They don't even appear to be bent on conquering all of Ukraine. They don't even want
24:06all of Ukraine. They don't want anything west of the Denver. They would settle, and they have put
24:10on the table an offer only to take the four territories they have already bought with the
24:14considerable blood on their side. And again, you can even hate that, but that's the reality,
24:20folks. And if you keep pushing for non-reality like we're not even going to give that up and we're
24:26going to get that back at some point, then all you're doing is saying we want more war. We want
24:30more conflict. Even if this one comes to some kind of a negotiated end at some point pretty soon,
24:34if we keep that mentality, if we keep building up like the Western Europe is saying they're going to
24:39and want to be ready for a clash with Russia about 2030, we may get that war. So it's not just about
24:45where we're at right now. We have to end this now while there's still time to have a good future
24:51for everyone. Now, I'm not some pie in the sky guy myself and just saying trust everything Putin
24:58says. Don't trust anything he says. I don't trust anything anybody says for the defense of our country.
25:02I want to preserve and to have the capacity to defend ourselves with our own resources. That's what
25:09I think every country should do to include Russia, to include Germany, to include the Baltics,
25:15whatever you have to do. The rest of NATO, once this war is over, if you want to keep building up
25:20your militaries for self-defense and to prevent any kind of a Russian attack, there's good ways to do
25:25that. There's ways to do it that would deter a Russian attack that would not provoke an offensive
25:31in retaliation. There is no evidence that Russia just wants to conquer anything. As many people we've
25:37had on our show have said, what is the value to Russia? Putin, unlike Hitler in the 1930s,
25:42does not have territorial ambitions. He does not want breathing room, any of that kind of stuff.
25:47He doesn't need any national resources. He's got them all. He wants to do business with everybody
25:52because he has the resources. He has resources he wants to sell, which the West needs, and cheap and
25:58abundant energy resources, fertilizers, food products, all kinds of stuff. There is so much
26:05opportunity for mutual benefit. All we've got to do is recognize reality, grit your teeth to the part
26:12you don't like right now, but if you want a better future for yourself, for your country,
26:17and Europe writ large, then we're going to have to just stop this blind fiction that we've created
26:25for ourselves, that we want this outcome that is not attainable and is not possible, and instead,
26:30go after the one that is possible, that is attainable at a cost-effective pace that can have us get in
26:37peace and security and prosperity into the indefinite future. All that is on the table for possible to
26:43right now if and only if we get some kind of decent leadership. That, folks, is where it's all at.
26:50That's before us. That's the choice that we have. You can either choose a positive future
26:55without wiping away the realities of the Russian side. That's all on the table simultaneously.
27:02This future is possible. This future is also possible, and if you want to ignore the realities
27:07and keep going with the fiction, you will find that you get the worst outcome that's even possible,
27:12the one that you fear the most. Let's don't do that. On this day where both sides are supposed
27:18to be celebrating the victory over Nazism and the horrific 60 million people that were killed in World
27:23War II, let's make sure we don't get to the next one to where the death toll would almost certainly
27:29be higher and catastrophic for all of humanity. Let's don't go there, folks. We don't have to.
27:35This good future over here is attainable, and it's in our capacity to have. Thank you very much.
27:41Look forward to seeing you on the next episode of Daniel Dana's Deep Dive.
27:44Signing off from Brown University, and we'll see you next time.
27:53Signing off from Brown University, and we'll see you next time.