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National League Showdown: Reds Need Wins; Braves Favored
SportsGrid
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5/9/2025
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🥇
Sports
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00:00
My team in the National League right now,
00:01
at least from a betting perspective,
00:03
the Reds beat 80 wins out of Cincinnati.
00:05
They've got 19.
00:06
They're 19 and 19 straight up.
00:08
My guy, though, in the National League,
00:11
that would be Spencer Schwellenbach,
00:12
the 2021 Big Ten Player of the Year from Nebraska
00:15
and off to a great start in his second full season
00:18
in the bigs.
00:19
Minus 190, the price in favor of the Braves
00:22
to win this four-game set in the IRS
00:24
and take three of four from Cincinnati.
00:26
Can the Reds put up a fight today in the A?
00:28
Taking a look at the seasonal statistics here,
00:30
and by the way, I think Schwellenbach
00:31
did get blown up in his last start.
00:33
Two starts ago, was it?
00:35
41 and a third innings pitch,
00:36
but technically he's the better pitcher on the mound today.
00:38
3.92 ERA, which is a little bit elevated.
00:40
You want to see that number 3-5 or 0.
00:42
3-19 XFIP number on the season,
00:44
so bounce back might be in order at this point.
00:46
You take a look here from Cincinnati, Nick Lodolo,
00:48
pretty confident left-handed pitcher.
00:50
He is decent, typically, with his K right,
00:52
but not this year.
00:53
6.75 Ks per nine innings,
00:55
which means if you extrapolate out a nine-inning start for him,
00:57
he's not even striking out a guy per inning,
00:59
which is really what you want to see.
01:01
A 3.27 ERA, which makes some sense,
01:03
but his XFIP creeping up at a 4-2-8.
01:05
If we're looking at the lineups as how they present tonight,
01:08
Nick Lodolo, excuse me, being a left-handed pitcher,
01:11
very good against left-handed batters,
01:13
and also his power numbers are down against righties
01:15
with also ISO power number and weighted on base percentages.
01:18
Here's the issue that gets him in trouble
01:19
while his XFIP is a little bit higher.
01:21
He doesn't strike guys out,
01:22
which means the ball typically will be in play.
01:24
You look at the middle of the lineup
01:25
for the Atlanta Braves today.
01:26
Austin Riley going up against left-handed pitching.
01:28
Not a lot of at-bats.
01:30
You're 21, but a 300 ISO power number
01:32
and a weighted on base percentage of 4-0-2.
01:34
Marcel Azuna, not a lot of power,
01:35
but the weighted on base percentage of 3-94.
01:37
Olsen, not a lot of power,
01:39
but again, the weighted on base percentage of a 3-94.
01:41
I think the better overall lineup today
01:43
is for the Atlanta Braves.
01:44
I do think the Braves win this game,
01:45
but also, as I pointed out and you confirmed,
01:48
sometimes you come off the back-to-back starts.
01:50
Was it a problem that he had?
01:51
Was it an injury?
01:52
Was he just not feeling it right now?
01:54
Like, Paul Skeen's had a nice bounce-back performance
01:55
after he had one of his low points in the season,
01:57
which the Pittsburgh Pirates still lost.
01:59
I'll still trust Atlanta in this spot, though.
Recommended
1:27
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