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  • 5/7/2025
With India attacking nine sites in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir as well inside Pakistan proper the situation between the two nuclear armed South Asian adversaries has turned dramatically more uncertain. However, the fact that an official statement from India’s Ministry of Defense making a point to highlight that no Pakistani military facilities were targeted shows that at least for now New Delhi does not want to escalate it into a full-scale war.

A lot of will depend on the extent of Pakistan’s response, whether it strikes targets other than military ones, outside of Jammu and Kashmir and to some extent even within that state, if we are looking at the beginning of a dangerous long-term war.

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00:00With India attacking nine sites in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir as well as inside Pakistan proper,
00:07the situation between the two nuclear-armed South Asian adversaries has turned dramatically more
00:13uncertain. However, the fact that an official statement from India's Ministry of Defense
00:18makes it a point to highlight that no Pakistani military facilities were targeted shows that at
00:24least for now New Delhi does not want to escalate it into a full-scale war.
00:29A lot will depend on the extent of Pakistan's response, whether it strikes targets other than
00:34military ones outside of Jammu and Kashmir and to some extent even within that state if we are
00:41looking at the beginning of a dangerous long-term war. While Islamabad will publicly fulminate over
00:48the strikes, privately they are likely to rationalize that the nine strikes so far have been aimed at
00:53what India calls terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.
01:00Among the nine sites were Kotli, Muretke, Bahabalpur and Muzaffarabad.
01:05After the first round of strike by India and the expected Pakistani response,
01:10it is conceivable that both sides will pause to take stock rather than immediately escalate it into
01:16a full-scale war with the nuclear arsenals of both casting an ominous shadow. The US reaction so far
01:23has been muted. President Donald Trump said, and I quote, it's a shame. We just heard about it. They
01:29have been fighting for a long time. I just hope it ends very quickly, unquote. It's not exactly a
01:35ringing endorsement of the Indian strikes, but it is also not against them either. It has a tone of
01:41resignation even while hoping that it ends quickly. It would be interesting to see how China, which has
01:47always cast its weight behind Pakistan, responds to it now that the strikes have indeed taken place.
01:54The next three to five days would be crucial to watch as what unfolds will decide whether the region
02:00is headed for a serious full-scale war reminiscent of 1971 which led to Pakistan's defeat and its halving
02:08with the creation of Bangladesh.

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