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00:00So Joey P, the master, the man, the author behind the black book that's coming out,
00:04you're here to help us temper our expectations and really approach this football future wagering
00:10market with a sober head. Let's go. Yeah, let's take a look at the AFC first to start because
00:16AFC I think is a more talented conference overall and more competitive. So after the draft, we have
00:23these odds, which is the top of the board, the Baltimore Ravens at plus 360, followed by the
00:28Buffalo Bills at 370, the clear favorites, Kansas City in third here, plus 410, where I think they
00:33should be. That's fair. We talk about every single year, the team that loses the Super Bowl rarely
00:37gets back there, let alone wins. So let's move away from that. So to represent the AFC, I think it's
00:44far more interesting to look at the Cincinnati Bengals because the terror they went on at the
00:47end of the season, it was a little too little too late, unfortunately for the Bengals. But
00:52the question is, did they do enough on the defensive side of the football to help them
00:56get over that hump? And I don't think the answer is yes right now. I really wish it was. I love Joe
01:01Burrow. I love Jamar Chase and T Higgins. Maybe they can just outscore everybody in this era of
01:07the NFL. You could certainly try, but that team that went to the Super Bowl had guys like Jesse
01:12Bates on it. They had, it had veteran, you know, defenders that made up that deficit and it wasn't
01:18always pretty, but they had playmakers. I just don't know if they have enough there. Then you have the
01:22Houston, Texas at plus 1300. And I know they drafted every wide receiver they possibly could.
01:26But to me, when you deal Laramie Tunsil and you're just still trying to like figure out, okay,
01:30where are we in terms of our offensive line? I don't get it. I thought their first two picks
01:36should have been offensive line. Instead, they're just taking wide receivers everywhere, which I
01:40understand that was a deficit for them too. But it was just strange. I still have major concerns
01:45about them. Now, look, they show up when it matters. That defense was tremendous last year in the
01:49playoffs against the Chargers. But speaking of the Chargers at 14 to one, they're very intriguing.
01:55I would not be shocked if the Chargers won the West and unseated the Chiefs. I think the Denver
02:00Broncos are going to be very good as well. We'll see that sophomore slump for Bo Nix if that shows up,
02:04but they did get their running back in RJ Harvey. And on top of which they also possibly have the best
02:11corner duo now in the sport. So they're going to bring the defense beside the football here.
02:16The Chargers going and getting Amari and Hampton, you know, two years ago in the draft,
02:21they kind of fixed the trenches a little bit. Now they're starting to get those other pieces,
02:25right? Trey Harris, Amari and Hampton to help Justin Herbert. If those kids come along quickly,
02:30this plus 1400 could be really intriguing here on the Chargers. But I do think it's the Ravens or
02:35Bills season. I think finally one of those teams is going to see that pathway. And I lean towards the
02:40Ravens because defensively, I think they continue to draft. Well, they have enough pieces.
02:44I think eventually they get over that hump and I'm still worried about Josh Allen, Matt,
02:48having the right wide receiver to make a big play in a big moment for him.
02:52I thought they might get that this year. Maybe they think he on Coleman becomes that guy.
02:57Khalil Shakir is okay. But again, it's just, I feel like they lack that other playmaker.
03:02Josh Allen is great, but I just don't know if he can do it all by himself all the time.
03:05I think Lamar has a little bit more help with Derek Henry and some other pieces there.