Cubs vs. Brewers: Imanaga vs. Peralta Pitching Matchup

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00:002-10 start here. Not worried about weather conditions, as we stated, because we're playing

00:03in Milwaukee with a dome. Imanaga, the left-handed pitcher for the Cubs. We've been on the mound.

00:07Freddy Peralta, the right-handed pitcher for Milwaukee. This line opened up roughly a pick-em,

00:11Tom. Hasn't changed all that much, and a total opened up at 7.5, still sitting at 7.5 across

00:17the board. Take a look at the pitching matchups that he sees. Shota Imanaga, 20-25, 39 innings

00:22pitched, a 277 ERA, 30 Ks on the season, and a whip rate of 1.13. Let me just see if I can

00:29take a look here also at Imanaga's numbers. Here's what's interesting about that. Great

00:33ERA, higher XFIP number, though, for Imanaga, which is something we'll talk about in a moment,

00:38and then Freddy Peralta on the other side for us, Tom. 20-25 statistics here, 39 in the

00:43third innings pitched here, 2.52 ERA, 41 Ks, and a whip of 1.07. And if we take a look

00:50at Freddy Peralta's numbers here, a 3.93 XFIP number. The XFIP's a little bit higher than

00:55the ERA, but Imanaga's really sticks out here. Let's talk that pitching matchup first

00:58year. Imanaga and Peralta for you. Yeah, they're both good pitchers, and we can say

01:03that Imanaga's certainly a great pitcher. When we're discussing the XFIP versus the ERA,

01:09obviously, we prefer to use XFIP. That's more of a leading indicator of where things should

01:12be. But when you're looking at Imanaga, it's an 18% strike rate, or 18.9 to be exact, which

01:18is a bit lower than the 25 we saw last year. His walk rate is also up at 8.2% this year

01:23compared to the 4% that we saw last year. So he's letting more runners on base for free.

01:27He's not striking them out as much. The Babbitt is also 220 this year compared to 264. So

01:33his Babbitt should be due for some regression. You would like to think that he gets more strikeouts

01:37going. You would like to think that he stops allowing runners on for free. He's also allowing

01:411.62 home runs per nine. So I can understand why the XFIP is a little bit higher compared

01:46to the ERA. And the ERA is fantastic at 2.77. But when we're looking at this from a betting

01:51or prop perspective, Donnie, are we saying that actually Imanaga may be worth attacking in

01:56certain spots because he is actually due for some regression.