Expert Picks and Insights for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday

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00:00Ah, to the starting gates they go in the early line as we wind down our number two.

00:05It's Joe O'Neary down the right side of Mark Zinno helping us out with some information,

00:08which usually includes the NFL draft, some Major League Baseball talk, some NDA action,

00:12but also now, which includes horse racing action.

00:15So, Mark, I'll start with you here first.

00:17Are we big on the Kentucky Derby?

00:18Do we handicap the Kentucky Derby?

00:20What are our thoughts on the Kentucky Derby?

00:23We do.

00:24I enjoy a good triple crown race here.

00:27I spent yesterday watching a whole lot of YouTube clips on the horses in this race that I really like

00:34and the ones that I think that have a real legitimate chance to win this thing here.

00:38And I have decided on a winner.

00:39I don't know if you want me to tell it to everybody now or how you want to set this up here.

00:43Slow play it.

00:43I've decided on, okay, well, you want me to slow play it?

00:46But I would tell you this much.

00:48There is a reason why the favorite is the favorite in this race.

00:51And it's very understandable that journalism is the favorite.

00:57When you look at the races that this horse runs, they're very clean.

01:00They stick to the same pattern.

01:02And this is a horse that knows how to pace well.

01:04The biggest question I have in journalism really is how will he close down the stretch

01:09when you go from a mile and a 16th to a mile and a quarter and what the difference is in that race.

01:14And I will tell you that the race, the horse that I have picked, and this is kind of a wild card here

01:20for a lot of different reasons, but I'm going with the 17 horse Sandman in this race.

01:26Now, Sandman has run, you know, eight races in his career.

01:31And if you look at the three-year-old races that he's run in the last year,

01:35he's won two of them, finished second and third in the other.

01:39Here's the thing.

01:40Sandman has had very erratic races.

01:42He's had two bad breaks from the gate, and in another one, he just kind of, you know,

01:47was stalked in the rear too long and didn't make a quick enough move.

01:52But this horse, to me, has the best closing speed down the stretch.

01:56If you watch Sandman races, you'll see when they get around that final turn

02:00and they get to the top of the stretch, two things happen.

02:03The jockey takes them wide, and once he takes them wide and the horse has got room to run,

02:07it's the kind of speed, Joe, that you can see.

02:10You can see it's almost like when you play a video game and you hit the nitro burst

02:13on those car racing games and the car shoots forward.

02:16Sandman has that gear.

02:18In the races that Sandman finished second and third, if you look at it throughout his career,

02:22it was a bad break, and when they got into the stretch, the horse was moving and closing.

02:27It ran out of track because it was only a mile and a 16th.

02:29When you move this to a mile and a quarter, that horse with the extra three-sixteenths of a mile

02:34is going to have the extra distance it needs to close the gap and sprint past anybody in front of him.

02:39I would box Xacta, Sandman and Journalism.

02:44I think they finished 1-2 in this race here.

02:47Journalism is going to run a really clean race.

02:49Sandman, I think as long as he breaks clean and stays in good position,

02:55and Sandman is going to just linger back.

02:58With a 20-horse field, it wouldn't shock me to see him around 8th, 9th, or 10th

03:01for a better part of this race.

03:03The question is, can he get clear where he needs to and find the space to run?

03:06You look at a lot of these other races that Sandman ran, they're all five- and six-horse races.

03:11The field is a lot open, and he's only run in one grade one race.

03:16That was the Arkansas Derby that he won.

03:19So it's going to be very interesting to see the trip that he has, if he can do it.

03:22Rodriguez is a speed horse.

03:24A lot of people like him.

03:25I think he's going to fade when it comes to the extra three-sixteenths of a mile.

03:29The rest of them, when you get to start getting into double digits, are ones that I really don't like as much.

03:33But give me Sandman here to win.

03:35Give me a box exact of Sandman journalism.

03:38And even if you find another horse you like, you can box trifecta them.

03:41But I think, you know, you're talking about journalism and Sandman being in two of the top three spots.

03:47Post position is everything for Sandman there with Cass as well.

03:52And, of course, you got the Ortiz brothers on top there.

03:55But, to me, it's all about the pace in this race.

03:58You are going to have some horses that are going to come out flying.

04:04And if the pace is too much, that's the problem is that if it's too fast, you're not going to give guys from behind an opportunity.

04:12So that's the other problem.

04:13Well, it's interesting.

04:15I mean, again, one of the races, and I forget which one it was.

04:17Let me just go back and look real quick.

04:19I think it was the, I want to say it was the Southwest Stakes or the Rebel Stakes earlier this year.

04:26The two horses that got out to the lead started so fast.

04:30I mean, they ran a half mile in 45 and 2.

04:32I mean, they were flying the whole way.

04:34Still in the stretch, Sandman closed within second.

04:38And had he had another 16th of a mile, he wins the race.

04:42Again, look for him to linger back.

04:44I think the actual post position at 17 helps Sandman.

04:47Sandman, once he breaks, he doesn't have to rush to the rail.

04:50He's not, it's not where he needs to be.

04:52As long as he stays in the back of the pack, he can coast easy.

04:55The first furlong, two furlongs, get himself in position for the backstretch run.

04:59And you'll see when they get to the end of the backstretch, as soon as they start that final turn,

05:03you'll see Ortiz nod him.

05:05He'll kick into another gear.

05:07Once he hits the top of the stretch, it's go time for Sandman.

05:09That was the Arkansas Derby, by the way.

05:11The only thing that could keep Sandman, by the way, the only thing that could keep Sandman out

05:14is if they prank call the paddock before the race.

05:16It's completely throwable.

05:17Thank you, Mark Zino, for joining us today.

05:19A lot of fun, as always.

05:21We'll see you again soon, hour number three, up next.

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