Rays Host Yankees in Friday Night AL East Showdown

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00:00We head down to Tampa, where the Yankees are on the road, but in a familiar spot, of course, in their spring training home.

00:07Bronx South, as we're calling it, George Steinbrenner Field.

00:10The Yankees victorious yesterday, 6-3 in the weekend series opener against Tampa.

00:16Game number two of a four-game set today against the Rays.

00:19As we see it there, DRS, looking at those odds for game number two.

00:24Just tracking it down here on the FanDuel Sportsbook.

00:26Why am I missing it?

00:27There it is. The Yankees, a slight favorite.

00:30Now, as we see, Carlos Rodon gets the nod today for the pinstripes.

00:34What do you expect in Tampa?

00:37Yeah, this game last night, you're taking a look at, oh, how good's Will Warren going to do?

00:40It wasn't very good. They yanked him right away.

00:42Didn't even make it out of the second inning, and they still end up winning that baseball game.

00:45So this is the handicap as it starts because the much better lineup is with the New York Yankees.

00:50But hear me out on this.

00:51Drew Rasmussen last year, Ben, 116 batters face, stellar numbers.

00:550-46 ISO and a 2-44 weighted on base percentage dominated both right-handed and also left-handed batters.

01:01Keep in mind he's a right-handed pitcher.

01:03This season, 54 batters that he's faced, and you take a look at his lineup through 15 innings,

01:07an 0-60 ERA and a 2.74 XFIP number, which is really good.

01:12You look at his splits this year.

01:14ISO power numbers through 54 batters, Ben?

01:16It's a zero.

01:17No extra base hits.

01:18A weighted on base percentage combined.

01:19A 1-74, a high K rate, and a low walk rate.

01:23Now you have to extrapolate those numbers and take into effect the Yankees lineup,

01:27which Ben Rice, Aaron Judge, Anthony Volpe, Jazz Chisholm, Wells, and Dominguez against right-handed pitching

01:32all have really high ISO power numbers.

01:35So you don't want to go down that path like, oh, the Yankees batters will hit and they'll be fine because why?

01:39Look at that lineup today for Tampa Bay.

01:41Going up against Rodon, who's not a great pitcher, not having a great season,

01:43didn't have a great season last year.

01:44But that lineup doesn't hit left-handed pitching at all.

01:48Yandy Diaz leading off a 4.62 ISO and a weighted on base percentage at 4.74 against lefties.

01:53Fantastic.

01:54Jose Caballero in that lineup looks and hit about fifth today.

01:575.45 ISO, 6.22 weighted on base percentage.

02:00Everybody else is basically a zero ISO power number and a terrible weighted on base percentage.

02:06So if you're just betting the better pitcher, technically it's Tampa.

02:09But boy, if you're expecting to win two to one,

02:11that's a pretty low threshold to say we don't have much of a margin for error.

02:15That's what makes it tough.

02:16But also, look at that line perspective.

02:18Really light, basically a coin flip.

02:20Sometimes you just want to ride the better pitcher that they'll get it together,

02:23and maybe you do that tonight.

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