Padres vs. Cubs: San Diego Aims to Stay Undefeated at Home

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00:00Tonight, DRS, in Petco Park, the Padres, a minus 158 favorite against the Cubbies

00:06with a total of seven and a half to keep it perfect at home.

00:11Will the Padres remain unbeaten in San Diego?

00:15Might Chicago continue its great West Coast trip?

00:19Yeah, pretty good.

00:19Both these teams coming in pretty good form here, particularly at the plate.

00:22As you had a couple days ago, you had a 16 spot there for the Chicago Cubs.

00:25Then you just see that series against the Colorado Rockies, where I guess if they scored three total runs,

00:30they probably would have still swept the Rockies at that point because the Rockies didn't score at all.

00:34Jamison Tyone on the mound, 71 batters he's faced so far in this early season.

00:38A 258 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 359.

00:41If we take a look at some of those numbers through 16.1 innings pitched, he's got an ERA bet of 6.06,

00:47an expected ERA of 5.31, so not much difference there.

00:51But he does have a lower XFIP of 4.03, so maybe getting a little bit unlucky to the batters that he's facing.

00:57If we look at that Padres lineup today, there's not a lot to love.

00:59There are high weighted on base percentages here against right-handed pitchers so far this season

01:04for Tatis, Machado, Sheets, and Bogarts.

01:06The rest of the lineup, not so good.

01:08But let's flip it over to the other side and take a look at Dylan Cease.

01:11And you might be saying right now, like, hey, you know what?

01:13This is the time to get Dylan Cease, 66 batters on the season he's faced.

01:17He actually has a low ISO and a weighted on base percentage.

01:19That is decent at 3.39, but taking a look at his statistics through 14 and two-thirds innings pitched,

01:25have a close to an 8 ERA.

01:27But as expected, ERA, Ben, is actually 3.65, just about in half.

01:31And his XFIP is 3.33.

01:33So a lot of people that are new to handicapping are just taking a look at teams saying,

01:37boy, I just look at ERA and Cease isn't that good.

01:39Therefore, take the Cubs here.

01:41He's getting a little bit unlucky at this point because those K numbers are still high,

01:44which includes 32% of lefties and 27% overall.

01:48You look at the lineup coming into today for the Cubs, some opportunities.

01:51Kyle Tucker's been fantastic.

01:53Michael Bush as well.

01:54And also Miguel Amaya, the catcher, against right-handed pitching.

01:56But the rest of that lineup doesn't look great.

01:59So you might look and say, boy, these two pitchers might be able to get hit 7.5.

02:02No, that 7.5 actually makes sense.

02:04I look more towards the under in this game and give the benefit of the doubt to the Padres,

02:08being the home team.

02:09And also Cease, those numbers, a little bit smoke in mirrors right now.

02:13He probably should be less than that.