Marine Le Pen 'wants to present herself as a martyr', follows Sarkozy's, Trump's playbook, researcher says

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00:00Let's get more analysis and bring in Ariane Beauguin, lecturer in French at the University

00:04of Northumbria.

00:05Ariane, thanks for being with us.

00:06This is truly, I believe, and you will correct me if I'm wrong, an unprecedented situation.

00:11Yeah, I mean, it's not the first time that French politicians have been condemned for

00:17corruption or embezzlement, but this is certainly the first time that the leader of a major

00:22party who is leading the polls way ahead for the 2027 presidential election might not be

00:28able to stand for it.

00:30So that's why there is such a shock that we are talking about someone who is leading the

00:36polls and who might not be able to stand as a candidate.

00:40And the reaction politically, I think, is predictable.

00:43Voices on the far right condemning it out of hand, voices abroad from the far right

00:48end of the political spectrum also making those same noises.

00:51All except for François Bayrou, who, of course, is a well-known centrist and is actual Prime

00:56Minister of France.

00:57He is disturbed by the verdict.

00:59Do you understand where he's coming from?

01:01Well, it's not a surprise because when the prosecution made its case in November, he

01:08already said that she should not be condemned.

01:12So him saying that he's disturbed or whatever the word he used is not a surprise.

01:18But really, you know, everyone is entitled to criticize a court decision.

01:23You might think it's too harsh.

01:24You might think in this particular case that the sentencing is disproportionate to the

01:29crime committed.

01:30But there is a procedure for that, and the procedure is the appeal process.

01:35So all this noise that we've heard today, all these really harsh words against the dictatorship

01:42of judges, against judges being against the people, all of this really harsh rhetoric

01:49is a political strategy to weaponize a judicial decision and galvanize her base and trying

01:58to make political gains out of a detrimental judgment.

02:02But really, there is a procedure and she's going to do it, which is to appeal and see

02:06what the appeal court will say.

02:09Indeed, there's all this, woe is me, I'm a victim, all those kind of things being said.

02:12Of course, she's trying to say it's a political decision that has been handed down by the

02:16French court.

02:18But at the end of the day, she's committed a crime.

02:21So as you and I talk now, she is basically a crook.

02:25She's been convicted.

02:26And so therefore, what she's going through is perfectly justified.

02:29Well, you know, this is a court decision who found her guilty and now she's going to appeal.

02:37Right.

02:38So this should be really, in an ideal world, this should be the end of the discussion.

02:42She was found guilty and now she's going to appeal.

02:45But clearly, she wants to present herself as a victim.

02:49She wants to present herself as a martyr.

02:52And we've seen that before when Sarkozy, for example, was condemned in 2021, that's exactly

02:58what he said.

02:59When Trump was condemned, that's exactly what he did as well.

03:03So it's, you know, she is condemned.

03:05She's going to appeal.

03:07And all of this noise is not, in my mind, is dangerous for the rule of law, because

03:13what she's doing is undermining the independence of the judiciary.

03:21But it's a well-known strategy.

03:22You know, the playbook has been played, not just in France, but around the world.

03:28And in terms of what happens next, then, clearly, as you say, Marine Le Pen is going to want

03:31to cash in on this.

03:33The National Rally will do all it can to cash in on this.

03:36Jordan Bardello, of course, who stands to take her place as the candidate in 2027, will

03:41also be trying to get the maximum out of this, too.

03:44Well, the thing is, what really happens today is that it has totally reshuffled the cards

03:50for the 2027 presidential election.

03:54If she still wants to be a candidate and saying that the appeal court might overturn the verdict,

04:01a campaign will still be derailed because she'll have another trial.

04:04And obviously, all the other parties are going to hammer her with accusation of being dishonest,

04:11etc., etc.

04:12If she takes a step back, then there are two questions.

04:15Who is going to be the candidate?

04:17It could be Bardello.

04:18But, you know, when someone with such a stature as Marine Le Pen leaves space, it whets the

04:26appetites of other people.

04:28So it might not be Bardello.

04:30And then which political line are they going to choose?

04:34And finally, all the other parties, all the strategies are going to change because they

04:39all thought that they were going to fight against Marine Le Pen.

04:43And it's very different competing against her as it is competing against a less well-known

04:50person.

04:51So everything today has been upended when it comes to the presidential election.

04:57Marianne Bourguin, it's always a pleasure to have you on the programme.

05:00Thank you very much for giving us that analysis of the situation, which, as you say, is ongoing.

05:05Although Marine Le Pen, this evening, convicted of embezzlement and barred from running for

05:10the 2027 election here in France.

05:13Marianne, thanks for joining us.

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