Aaron Judge's Blazing Start: Analysis & Betting Tips

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00:00We're talking about Red Hot Players. Aaron Judge, anybody catch his game yesterday?

00:04Look at the start to the season, a 500 average. Oh yeah, he was the MVP last year as well.

00:09Three home runs, nine RBI, and four runs scored. He has been unconscious there right now,

00:14up for the New York Yankees. I love what I see,

00:17and those markets that we'll get to in a second are moving accordingly here, Tom.

00:21Yeah, we have an awesome start from Judge, obviously highlighted yesterday by multiple

00:26home runs, three to be exact, RBIs coming each and every day. I would say, like,

00:31don't overreact. And frankly, if you don't have an MVP bet, don't bet on Judge. Like a plus 155

00:38or plus 150 number where he is now is honestly a terrible bet for a season-long MVP where we are

00:44three games in to the season. You should not be betting on it. Frankly, there are better bets we

00:49make. You can find a guy that's 15 to 1 now that he may not end up winning, but if he gets off to

00:53a good start where it turns around a slow start after three games, but I don't even want to call

00:57it a slow start, that number could be dropped to 7 to 1, 6 to 1 if you trust in these players and

01:01trust in what they're able to do. So don't take Judge right now. And when I said this pre-show,

01:06I think the numbers are this low for a player like Judge or Otani because frankly, I think

01:10they want to dissuade people and disincentivize them from betting. Like, they don't want to make

01:16Judge or Otani a liability for the book, so that's why they're making them so low.

01:20Yeah, what Tom's talking about here is like a plus 1.50 dog for the day. That's awesome,

01:24man. You bet it at 1 o'clock, he cashed you to 4. You bet plus 1.50 on Aaron Judge here on March

01:30the 30th, 2025. You're waiting till December probably to cash in that ticket at plus 1.50.

01:35So value, yes, in the eye of the beholder. I think Tom's right at some point. You just price it so

01:39low where it's not enticing to take it and say, whew, limited the damage even if he does end up

01:44winning. But one of the teams I used to love, and I don't even say back in the day, a few years ago,

01:48Great American Ballpark, which Tom's going to bring up multiple times, I'm sure, during this

01:52show and certainly throughout the spring and the summer. Eugenio Suarez, that Reds lineup,

01:55it's one of my favorite lineups. Now he goes out and look at Eugenio Suarez hitting .400,

02:00also with four bombs to start the season. Wake it up, Suarez.

02:05Love it, and we talked about the Dodgers a good amount on the preview show, and yesterday he was

02:10batting, what is this, sixth in the lineup? Cattell Marte, Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Goriel,

02:14Randall Gritchick, and Josh Naylor ahead of him. If those players are on base or any

02:20combination, he's batting fourth, fifth, sixth. That is a great offensive lineup,

02:24and if he is going to be in spots to consistently pick up RBIs, let's just be clear, I don't think

02:30he's actually going to win MVP. We all agree it's probably going to be Otani, maybe someone else.

02:35Soto's obviously there, but from a prop perspective, he could be one of the best players

02:41all season. RBIs are total bases because they're never going to be able to pitch around him. If

02:45there's players on base, he has this amount of power. That could be a real source of value this

02:49season. No, it certainly can, and also, when we're taking a look at the Red Hawkeyes to start the

02:54season, also, we've all played baseball before. You want to rack up those hits early in the season.

02:58You want to be batting .132 midway through April. It's like, how am I ever going to get out of this

03:03slump that I have to try to build my statistics back up?