Narayana Murthy’s Alarming Prognosis For India’s GDP

Brut India

India’s GDP growth could hit the lowest level since Independence. But NR Narayana Murthy also explains how India can overcome the crisis. Thanks to IET India for the footage.

Transcript

00:00The most important politician in the country, the Prime Minister, has taken direct charge

00:08of the situation.

00:09Therefore, I can say that the Indian government is doing the best it can.

00:14We cannot let the economy come to a halt, already we have 140 million workers who have

00:21been affected by this virus.

00:31The global GDP has gone down, global trade has shrunk, global travel has almost dissipated.

00:38The global GDP is likely to shrink between 5% and 12%, India's GDP is expected to shrink

00:46by at least 5%.

00:47There is a fear that we may even reach the lowest GDP since independence, since 1947.

00:58The tension between two major powers in the world, that is US and China, has escalated.

01:08The vaccine for COVID-19 is in the third trial, as I pointed out, and it's only one case among

01:17On the domestic side, the government has realized the importance of restarting the economy and

01:25supporting MSMEs and low-wage workers.

01:29They have been spending as much as 10% of our GDP, about $300 billion on wages for low

01:38workers who have lost their jobs, on loan guarantees for MSMEs, and for creating infrastructure

01:47for fighting the virus.

01:48I do not have data on how much of this amount has been actually disbursed.

01:56The industrial sector has restarted, but has not picked up pace.

02:03That's what I would say.

02:07Right from the first day of the lockdown on 22nd March or so, my view has been that we

02:20have to be prepared to live with the virus.

02:23There are three reasons.

02:25First of all, there is no vaccine.

02:30The earliest possible vaccine is from Oxford University, and that may be available in India

02:41anywhere from six to nine months.

02:47But even if we are able to vaccinate 10 million people a day, it is going to take 140 days

02:57to vaccinate all Indians.

03:00That is a long period to prevent the spread of the disease.

03:08Second, there is no cure.

03:10There are lots of companies that are trying, but there is no cure.

03:15Third is, we cannot let the economy come to a halt.

03:20Already we have 140 million workers who have been affected by this virus.

03:29So the smartness, according to me, is to define a new normal.

03:35This normal should allow our economy to grow while moving down the arc faster

03:43and fighting the virus effectively.

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