Drafting Aces: Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes vs. Hitter Strategy

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00:00Let's talk guys like Tarek Skubal and Paul Skeens and Wheeler and Gilbert to a lesser

00:04extent, but talk about the starting pitcher target and how to approach it in drafts.

00:09Yeah, look, starting pitching is always going to be the most volatile of all your investments.

00:13Even the good ones.

00:14It's just going to be the case.

00:16Now, what format you're playing in really matters the most of how you value pitching.

00:19If you're in head-to-head points leagues and wins are worth 10 and strikeouts are worth

00:23two, well, guess what?

00:25Starting pitching should go early and often in your draft.

00:27You should be looking at those guys, especially if you're playing week-to-week head-to-head

00:31formats there.

00:32That makes the most sense.

00:33Even head-to-head categories, I understand wanting that dominant ace pitcher to have

00:37maybe in the second round.

00:38I kind of get that.

00:40But if you're in a season-long roto, I struggle to see the investment of a first-round pitcher.

00:45I don't have a first-round grade on any of the pitchers.

00:48You've seen Skeens and Skubal kind of sneak their way into first round sometimes in drafts.

00:52I disagree with that.

00:54It's really because of the logic of the offense that you're going to miss out on.

00:58I feel like the offensive players there, the elite ones, there's about 25 of them or so

01:02and I want to get as many of them as I can.

01:04Then after that, there's plenty of pitchers that I think have number one upside or the

01:09ability to have number one style starts more often than not.

01:13And that's more what I'm looking for.

01:15So it's not a knock on any of these guys, but you're not going to find a lot of these

01:18players on my personal rosters and my bills because they're not the Randy Johnson striking

01:22300 guys out or the Pedro Martinez.

01:25Those guys don't exist anymore in Major League Baseball.

01:28It's just not there.

01:29And what is there is a bunch of really good young talent with a lot of questions about

01:34durability.

01:36And Tariq Skubal was one of these guys last year who had a full season.

01:39That was the only question hanging us up on Tariq Skubal and now he's coming off a year

01:43where he had a full season and playoffs.

01:45So what does Tariq Skubal look like this year?

01:48And I'm sure he looks like a Cy Young candidate, but there's still that little bit of

01:52doubt.

01:53The bigger doubt that I have is when you start to look at the ADP of Tariq Skubal, right?

01:56He is going currently as the 16th player overall.

02:00So you have to start to manage the expense of, do I want Jordan Alvarez, Jackson Churio,

02:05Julio Rodriguez, or a Vlad Guerrero Jr. even, or do I want Tariq Skubal?

02:10And I got to tell you, I think I'm leaning towards the offensive player every single

02:13time.

02:14Maybe Skubal over Churio, you know, in the second round, I can understand that if I really

02:17like my first round talent hitter, but Matt, it is difficult.

02:21Paul Skeens, also a guy going even higher in some drafts.

02:25I've seen him go as high as 12.

02:27Now when you're going as high as 12 in a draft, you're talking about trying to draft him over

02:31guys like Francisco Lindor, guys like Corbin Carroll, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Vladi as well.

02:38So for me, I'm looking at those bats over these arms as tempting as Paul Skeens and

02:43Tariq Skubal are.

02:44They're not tempting enough for me to pivot off the offense early because I feel like

02:48starting pitching is something I can find a little later.

02:51There's a lot more of it in the supply and demand chain.

02:54And there's always off the waiver wire guys every year.

02:57Shaul Minaya off the waiver wire last year, right?

03:00Luis Severino on that same team, even off the waiver wire.

03:03Guys are going to show up there and give you some solid innings and some solid performances.

03:06Matt, where do you stand at the top of the pitching board with these two aces?

03:10Well, lead with your head and not with your heart.

03:14Joe said it best.

03:15First thing before anything.

03:16I love Paul Skeens as much as the next guy.

03:19And so look at your league.

03:21How's it scored based off that value of the players?

03:24And most leagues will give you projected points.

03:25And I don't like to go by projections.

03:27But at the end of the day, if you look at the projected points and you see that all

03:30these batters have far more projected points than these pitchers, then the pitchers have

03:34less value in that particular league.

03:36But let's have the conversation in a league where everything is equal, right?

03:39You want to chase the strikeouts.

03:40You want to chase the wins.

03:42With Tarek Skubal, where's that bullpen, where's the win going to come from?

03:47Do you believe in the team?

03:48Those are the things you have to think about.

03:49Otherwise, he has to be a horse all year.

03:52In a couple of drafts, I really thought about reaching for Paul Skeens.

03:54So to Joe's point, it depends on what you want and how your team is built.

03:59But I don't want to miss out on Vlaga Rao.

04:00I don't want to miss out on Jackson Churia.

04:01I don't want to miss out on Anthony Santander.

04:03I don't want to miss out on Roniel Cruz this year.

04:05For some reason, I feel like he's ready to go if he's healthy, knock wood.

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