The ceasefire proposal is 'excellent for Ukraine', analyst says

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00:00TV analysis. Christine Bertina joins us from the German Marshall Fund of the United States,

00:03where she is managing director of GMF Geostrategy North.

00:07Christina, thank you very much for being with us here on France 24. We always appreciate your time.

00:11And Gulliver, our correspondent there in Kyiv, saying this is possibly as good a piece of news

00:16as Ukraine could get. Do you agree with that assessment? This is excellent for Ukraine.

00:22So Ukraine has done a few things through this meeting today in Saudi Arabia. The first one

00:28is that it has gotten back some of the most important things it has lost over the last week,

00:33notably intelligence sharing and the armed support from the United States.

00:38The intelligence sharing is a crucial minute by minute thing that Ukraine needs in order

00:43to have the strongest possible position it can. It also has put the ball in Russia's court. So

00:50something that Ukrainians have been trying to get the Americans to understand is how they do want

00:56peace and do want to have a solid, long lasting peace. But there has been a perception that the

01:01Ukrainians have been the harder actor to work with. Now it's going to be on Russia to show

01:07whether Russia wants to be good friends with the United States, as Trump hopes perhaps for the

01:15future. Does Russia want to come to the table? And does Russia also want to abide by a 30 day

01:20ceasefire? If Russia says no, it becomes very clear that it is not Ukraine that is the difficult

01:27actor, but Russia. And if Russia stops, that's great for Ukraine. Ukraine also needs a break.

01:34Ukraine also needs a good peace. And if Russia shows that it is not willing to abide by the

01:41terms of this agreement that the United States and Ukraine came to in Saudi Arabia, that they are

01:47going to be a problematic actor. And the United States and Europe and Ukraine are also going to

01:52have to think about what next with Russia. But it won't be Ukraine that is the troublesome actor

01:59anymore. And this decision by the US to resume military aid, to resume intelligence sharing,

02:05is possibly the best news that Ukraine's army could have got.

02:09It's excellent news. And so if you don't have a cooperative Russia, then you have the tools that

02:15you need in order to keep fighting this fight. And if you do have a ceasefire, well, that's

02:20excellent too. And so this is an incredibly hopeful moment for the Ukrainians, for the Ukrainian army,

02:27for the people who are on the front lines, because they are going to have a better set of tools

02:33available to them, better than they have had in the last few days. Or maybe they actually get a

02:39chance of ceasefire and a break and some peace. Indeed, trying to put yourself into Vladimir

02:44Putin's shoes now. What would be in it for him to go along with this deal, other than basically to

02:50show everybody that he isn't the villain of the peace? What does he gain from it? Because when

02:56he started the invasion three years ago, he promised to take Kiev in three days and take

03:00Vladimir Zelensky at the same time. None of that has happened. My question is, what does Vladimir

03:08Putin want when it comes to ties with the United States? Is he also tired? And does he want the

03:14prospect of a good handshake with President Trump to be a good reason to take the ceasefire offer

03:22right now? Does he want to go around the corner and not get stuck and bogged down in this war?

03:29Or does he want to go and fulfill his original aims, which is to get to Kiev, which is to have

03:34the territorial acquisition? He doesn't yet control all of the territories that he wants to,

03:39even without getting all the way to Kiev. So is this about territory? Is this about Ukraine?

03:45Or is it about a fresh relationship and a new era for Russia on the global stage? And I think that

03:52is the alluring, enticing piece that Putin could consider. But it really does depend on how Ukraine

04:02and the immediacy of a victory of Ukraine plays into his own objectives. Only Putin

04:08himself could answer that. Indeed. And you did a very good job then of putting yourself in his

04:13shoes though, Christine. So thank you for that analysis. But I'm wondering what the likes of

04:17China might be thinking, Iran, North Korea. I mean, clearly the axis that's behind Putin, that's

04:22supporting him to a larger extent. Where do they stand? Because clearly China's perspective, I

04:28suppose, is they're looking towards commerce, business first. That's always been their approach.

04:33The others have maybe slight more malicious intent, given the amount of arms they're supplying. And

04:37obviously in North Korea's case, personnel towards the battlefront. But I'm wondering

04:41sort of where that stands and what influence that might have on what happens next.

04:48Well, China absolutely, as you said, is very interested in its commercial ties and the trade

04:52relationship. It doesn't exactly know what it's going to have coming at it from the United States.

04:57In many ways, China is the quietest piece of American foreign policy. There's been a lot

05:03of attention on Ukraine and the Middle East, and not so much on China. So China doesn't know

05:09exactly what comes next. And on the one hand, it certainly wants economic prospects,

05:14but it will be watching very closely the ability of Trump to navigate a relationship with Putin and

05:22to find areas of commonality and mutual benefit, and certainly to take pointers from how the next

05:29step of this negotiation is going to go for its own benefit. Because yes, of course, we have seen

05:35recently an alignment between Russia and China and North Korea. But for each of these countries,

05:41their own domestic interests, their own political power is first and foremost. And so right now,

05:48what is on the table? What is possible? What kind of rules are there on the international stage?

05:54These are the big questions. How Putin plays his hand, now that the ball is in his court,

06:00is going to be very important. If China can see an advantage for itself economically,

06:06diplomatically, in terms of global power for Putin to take that ceasefire, they might want

06:12Putin to encourage that. Or if the prospects of ongoing instability are better for China's hand,

06:20then perhaps they don't want this ceasefire to move forward. Again, it's all quickly evolving,

06:28and there are many different stakes and elements to this conflict and to the resolution as well.

06:36Christine Berzina, thank you very much for that analysis, giving us all aspects of what could

06:41happen over the next 30 days if this ceasefire gets put into place. Christine Berzina from the

06:47German Marshall Fund of the United States, Managing Director of the GMF,

06:51Geo Strategy North section there. Christine, thanks as always for joining us. Thank you.

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