Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart Is Being WAY Overvalued In The 2025 NFL Draft

AtoZ Sports

Joe DeLeone and Ryan Roberts break down why Ole Miss football QB Jaxson Dart should not be a first round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Tune in for a full Jaxson Dart Scouting Report

Transcript

00:00Jackson Dart should not be drafted in the first round.

00:03Here's why.

00:07Ryan, why is Ole Miss quarterback Jackson Dart

00:10maybe not as good as everybody keeps projecting him to be?

00:15Well, I mean, it's because there's a chasm

00:17at quarterback three, right?

00:18There's a hole in this class right now.

00:20Some people like Jalen Milrow,

00:21some people like Jackson Dart,

00:22some other people are even throwing like Tyler Shuck

00:24from Louisville into this conversation.

00:26We're trying to find QB three in this class

00:29in a very quarterback needy group, Joe.

00:31I mean, outside of the first couple of picks,

00:33I mean, the Las Vegas Raiders

00:34are gonna need a quarterback,

00:35the New York Jets are probably gonna need a quarterback.

00:37There's a lot of quarterback needy teams

00:39in this draft for the short and long term.

00:41So we're trying to gravitate towards a guy that people love.

00:46And some people have hooked on to Jackson Dart.

00:48Now, I understand the appeal to Jackson Dart,

00:51but the reason that I remain lower on Jackson Dart

00:54in terms of a first round evaluation or valuation

00:59is just, I think that one, he comes from this offense

01:02that is not incredibly translatable to the NFL.

01:04I think that that's gonna be a little bit of a crash course

01:06early on in his career, a tough transition.

01:08And also I just think athletically he has got some tools,

01:12but the arm strength, I just, every time I watch him,

01:14I'm like, I think that the arm strength is average

01:17for NFL standards at best.

01:19And he's late a lot on his reads, right?

01:21And that's partly because of the system he comes from.

01:24So those inconsistencies,

01:26him not maybe being developed well enough

01:29to figure out that NFL playbook and a read system

01:33in the NFL early on in his career, that processing,

01:35those are some of the reasons that I remain a little bit

01:37lower on Jackson Dart compared to what some people

01:40are trying to build a mass.

01:41Right, the main to address the negatives

01:45on why he's not a first rounder,

01:46why he's better off going somewhere on day two.

01:49And instead of putting these unrealistic expectations

01:51on him, why he deserves to go to a situation

01:54where he's viewed as a backup

01:56who could maybe start instead of a starting solution player.

01:59We're going to do, can he pick it all over again

02:01if we do this to this poor kid.

02:03But his weaknesses, as you just said,

02:04he's playing in an offense where there's,

02:06it's very rarely translatable to the NFL.

02:08We don't know what his decision-making would be like

02:11in an NFL offense, especially when we have on tape

02:13where he's made some brutal, brutal mistakes.

02:16The Florida game, go back to the Florida game.

02:18When things were not flowing the way that they needed to,

02:22he had some awful turnovers that cost him the game.

02:24He can bounce back from that and he can improve from that,

02:27but that is going to hold him back as a prospect.

02:29And you just mentioned the arm strength.

02:31What though gets you excited on why he could maybe

02:35be a day two pick to eventually start?

02:38I mean, the reason that I like Jackson for,

02:41where I think that he should be valued early on was

02:43he's tough as nails in the pocket, man.

02:45Like absolutely fearless navigating the field in the pocket,

02:49which I love.

02:50I think that that's one thing that holds some quarterbacks

02:53back early in their NFL careers when they can't evaluate

02:55and navigate pressure well enough in the pocket.

02:58I think he's nails in the pocket.

02:59And I also think that he's a pretty good athlete, right?

03:01Like he throws a catchable football

03:03and he's a pretty good athlete.

03:03He's a good deep ball thrower.

03:04So there are some things to like again,

03:07but like I'm talking about evaluation versus valuation.

03:10The value of Jackson Dart is somewhere potentially

03:14in second to third rounds.

03:15If you're drafting him in the first round,

03:16I think you said it perfectly.

03:18You're going to put expectations on this young man

03:20that could either sink or swim, but more than likely,

03:23probably sink his confidence early on in his career.

03:26His path to starting at Ole Miss is really interesting

03:29because he steps in at USC and he committed to USC

03:32out of high school.

03:33He was the 13th ranked quarterback in his class

03:36and the second highest rated prospect in the state of Utah.

03:41Goes to USC, he starts, and then Lincoln Riley comes in

03:44after his first year, his freshman year.

03:46He was phenomenal.

03:47A lot of people were saying like,

03:48hey, Jackson Dart, look how good he is.

03:50He can be one of the best quarterbacks

03:51in college football.

03:52He transferred to Ole Miss as a shaky first year,

03:54and then it was speculated that Spencer Sanders

03:59was coming in and was going to take his job.

04:00That didn't come to fruition.

04:02We slowly started to see Jackson Dart get better and better

04:05and become a better decision maker within the offense

04:09and was going to be a driving force for why Ole Miss

04:13could have been a college football playoff team,

04:15but it didn't get to that full ceiling

04:17and we didn't get to see everything actualized

04:20for the Rebels.

04:21What else about Dart's background is worth noting

04:24about this kid?

04:25I mean, it's fascinating.

04:26He's a Corner Canyon kid, obviously, in the state of Utah,

04:29which is a very good football factory in the state of Utah.

04:33A lot of good players come out of Corner Canyon,

04:35but he was, Joe, actually a very under-recruited player

04:38up until like his senior year of high school,

04:40and then he balloons.

04:42Like his dad actually played safety

04:44at the University of Utah.

04:46And despite that, before his senior year,

04:49the only offer he had from Utah

04:51was as a gray shirt safety, right?

04:53So like he wasn't even going to be a scholarship player

04:55initially at the University of Utah to play safety.

04:58Then he has a dominant senior year.

05:00He blows up, becomes like a top 150 national recruits,

05:04and then USC obviously gets into the fold

05:07and they end up winning the Jackson Dart sweepstakes

05:10later on in his recruiting background

05:13and his recruiting story.

05:14So fascinating to see him go to USC,

05:16play a little bit as a freshman

05:18based upon some injuries and necessity,

05:20but then obviously Caleb Williams transfers over

05:23with Lincoln Riley, and that was kind of a little like nudge

05:26to be like, hey, there might be different pastures

05:28that might work out better for you.

05:30So the cool thing about him though,

05:31is that from 2022 to 2023 to 2024,

05:35he got better each season.

05:36So if we're talking about development

05:37and projection and trajectory,

05:39I do think that there's something to be said

05:41about a player that has consistently gotten better

05:43each of the last three years.

05:45Jackson Dart, this is a ceiling comparison.

05:49I don't think that this is guaranteed what he becomes,

05:52but if Jackson Dart works, I think he's Andy Dalton.

05:55Andy Dalton coming out of TCU was multi-year starter.

05:59He was poised in the pocket, good underrated athlete,

06:04and he was good enough to start for the Bengals.

06:07There was no maybe clear expectation

06:08of we're drafting this kid to start,

06:10but he starts for the Bengals,

06:11goes on to have a steady career as the starter for them.

06:15And then eventually he's bounced around

06:16as a stopgap player for multiple franchises.

06:20I really feel pretty good about this Andy Dalton comparison

06:22because coming into the league,

06:24that should be how Jackson Dart is viewed,

06:26the same way of maybe he starts for us.

06:29Maybe this works out.

06:30And if not, we have a really good backup.

06:32And then if Dart does get the chance to start,

06:35he's going to stick around

06:36and he will be the median point of the NFL at the very most.

06:40And eventually someone will pass up on him

06:43and try to go for a more talented starter

06:45and trade him away.

06:46Yeah, well, I like the physical comp

06:48because I've seen now multiple people

06:49who try to do the Jalen Hurts thing.

06:51And like, I just don't see it, man.

06:53I just don't see it.

06:54For Andy Dalton, you kind of compare one to the other.

06:56Both are right around six foot two.

06:58Both are right around 220 pounds,

07:00give or take a couple pounds, North or South there.

07:03But they're both really good athletes.

07:04And neither player has plus arm strength.

07:07They're both league average at kind of the best,

07:10but they do have that little bit of a gunslinger in them

07:12in terms of like,

07:13they're going to take some chances at times

07:14despite not having the biggest arms,

07:15which is a positive remark,

07:18but also a hindrance to them in certain aspects at times.

07:23At the NFL Combine, Andy Dalton was six foot two, 215.

07:27He had a six, nine, three, three cone,

07:30which is a very good number for a quarterback.

07:33So there are definitely athletic comparisons

07:36that could be made there between him and Andy Dalton.

07:39Folks, let us know in the comments below,

07:40where do you want to see Jackson Art play in the NFL?

07:42Hit that like button and subscribe,

07:44and we'll talk to you later.

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