Tropical Cyclone Alfred crossing on Saturday, BoM predicts

Australian Community Media

Tropical Cyclone Alfred’s crossing could last 6 to 9 hours, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) predicts. Video current 9:00am AEST 7 March 2025. Video by BoM

Transcript

00:00Tropical Cyclone Alfred continues its westerly track towards the south-east Queensland coast,

00:05expected to make landfall during tomorrow morning.

00:08Let's take a look at the details now as of Friday morning.

00:12The track map issued at 9 o'clock this morning shows our Tropical Cyclone warning extending

00:17from Double Island Point down to areas just north of Grafton, so still including the Sunshine Coast,

00:22Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the northern rivers of New South Wales. Tropical Cyclone Alfred is

00:27still a Category 2 system sitting over 150 km to the east of Brisbane. It's quite slow moving

00:33though, so its position isn't changing much from one track map to the next. In the past 24 hours

00:38though, we've certainly seen the rain ramping up through north-east New South Wales and south-east

00:42Queensland. Here are some of our top totals to 8 o'clock this morning. Now it's worth noting that

00:47a few of these locations, particularly through north-east New South Wales, have seen over 200

00:52mm of rainfall, on top of rainfall totals of over 200 mm from the day before. That means our

00:57two-day rainfall totals are already well over 400 mm for some locations, particularly through

01:03north-east New South Wales. Similarly, we've seen our wind gusts increasing overnight. Not just the

01:10wind gusts in fact, but the mean wind speeds, so the general conditions. Around the Gold Coast,

01:15we've seen a wind gust of 100 km an hour with very very windy conditions throughout the whole night.

01:21We're expecting to see this wind and rain increasing through today. Looking at our radar

01:26now, we can see the bands of showers and storms pushing through north-east New South Wales and

01:30south-east Queensland and wrapping around that cyclone system. As I said, we're going to see

01:35that wet weather only increasing, and the winds as well, particularly through this afternoon,

01:40with that coastal crossing forecast for tomorrow morning. So let's take a look at what we can

01:45expect for the rest of today. We're expecting tropical cyclone Alfred to continue moving

01:50very slowly towards the south-east Queensland coast. It'll stay as a Category 2 system today,

01:56bringing that rain and wind further onshore. The rain, first of all, is expected to be widespread

02:01through north-east New South Wales and south-east Queensland. The heaviest totals, these dark blue

02:06and black areas on this map, are expected to the south of the system, but are possible anywhere

02:12along this stretch of coast. Similarly, with our winds, we are expecting to see very windy

02:17conditions and damaging wind gusts anywhere through north-east New South Wales and south-east

02:22Queensland, but the strongest gusts are likely to be wrapping around the cyclone system.

02:29Our waves have already been enormous over the past couple of days. In fact, we've seen a record

02:33high wave at Brisbane, and we're expecting those very large seas, surf and swell, to continue today.

02:39Now, we've seen a lot of vision, a lot of images of coastal erosion and local inundation along

02:45our beaches through south-east Queensland and north-east New South Wales. We are expecting that

02:49to continue today. The waves will be huge, and they may act unpredictably. They may come at

02:55odd intervals and take you unaware if you're just trying to get a look at the surf.

03:00As we go into tomorrow morning, the system will make its crossing,

03:04likely somewhere between Noosa and Coolangatta. We expect the system to remain at Category 2

03:10intensity once it reaches those outer islands, but it may weaken back to a Category 1 cyclone

03:16before it reaches the mainland. One way or the other though, a Category 1 cyclone or a Category 2

03:21system is still going to bring the heavy rain and wind effects that we've been forecasting.

03:26Taking a closer look at that crossing now, as I mentioned, we're expecting that to occur

03:30somewhere between Noosa and Coolangatta, most likely close to Moreton Bay. Now, at this point

03:36in time, we are expecting that crossing to occur through tomorrow morning, but as it's going to

03:40reach those offshore islands before it reaches the mainland, that crossing time may last for a

03:45significant period. It won't be like a thunderstorm moving through, which lasts for 20 minutes or an

03:50hour and then blows away. This is going to be a prolonged period with bursts of extremely heavy

03:54rain and extremely strong winds for on the order of six, eight, possibly even nine hours. We may

04:00see some lulls through that period, but don't grow complacent because the event is likely to take a

04:05long time for it to be over. It's going to be very noisy, it's going to be very wet, and it could last

04:11for a number of hours through tomorrow, as I've said. So, what are we expecting for the rest of

04:16the weekend for tomorrow around that crossing and going into Sunday as well? Well, the heavy rainfall

04:22and strong winds will continue. This severe weather warning is current already today for that damaging

04:28to locally destructive wind gust risk and the heavy to intense rainfall. It covers much of southeast

04:33Queensland and northeast New South Wales, and we're expecting to see the heavy rain and strong

04:38winds through these areas through much of the weekend. Now, wind gusts up to 120 kilometres an

04:43hour could be widespread through these areas, just remembering that we've only seen up to 100 k's an

04:48hour at the Gold Coast. 120 k's an hour is even stronger and even more dangerous. Close to the

04:53time of crossing, we may see wind gusts up to 150 kilometres an hour, close to the core of that

04:59system. Similarly, the rainfall is likely to be widespread through these warning areas, not just

05:04today but going into tomorrow and the rest of the weekend as well. With six hourly rainfall totals

05:09in excess of 100 millimetres likely, 24-hour rainfall totals will really ramp up closer to

05:15that time of crossing. We may see those 24-hour totals hit three, even 400 millimetres or more,

05:21around that cyclone crossing time and the location of the crossing as well.

05:26We have significant flood products still in place, flood watches and some flood warnings

05:31for rivers which have already been upgraded to that flood warning in expectation of the rain

05:35that's to come. Now, that's mainly a few rivers through northeast New South Wales,

05:40sitting at moderate to major flooding, but notably the Logan River in southeast Queensland

05:44has already got a major flood warning current in expectation of those rivers rising through

05:50the weekend as the cyclone rainfall moves through the catchments.

05:56We've still got a coastal hazards warning in place from Double Island Point all the way down

06:00to Smoky Cape in New South Wales. Now, this is flagging that continued risk of damaging surf and

06:04abnormally high tides. The coastal erosion, those really high tides, are expected to continue through

06:10the coming days as the system approaches and then crosses the coast. Anywhere along the stretch of

06:16coast is likely to see those incredibly dangerous conditions continuing. Winds, rain and surf and

06:24swell are expected to increase through the later part of today ahead of that coastal crossing

06:28tomorrow. You can find the latest forecasts, warnings and track maps via the Bureau's website

06:34and via our weather app. Stay safe and we'll catch you in the next update.

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