Tropical Cyclone Alfred moving more slowly towards the coast

Australian Community Media

Tropical Cyclone now expected to take a slower path, hitting just north of Brisbane around the afternoon of Friday March 7, 2025.

Transcript

00:00As we head into Wednesday evening, rain and wind are already building as Tropical Cyclone Alfred

00:05approaches southeast Queensland and northeast New South Wales. Let's take a look at the latest

00:09warning situation, as well as what we can expect over the coming days, particularly around coastal

00:14crossing and beyond. Tropical Cyclone Alfred is currently a Category 2 system located around 300

00:19kilometres to the east of Brisbane. A Tropical Cyclone warning is current for communities

00:24between Double Island Point in the north and down towards Yamber and Grafton in northern New South

00:28Wales, and this includes the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the New South Wales

00:33northern rivers. This is for the imminent onset of gale force winds. Into Wednesday night and

00:38Thursday, we'll see these gale force to damaging winds extending into coastal areas, as well as

00:43heavy rainfall and significant coastal erosion due to damaging surf and abnormally high tides

00:48continuing. Then by Thursday night, impacts are expected to ramp up quite significantly,

00:53with the potential for destructive winds, intense rainfall leading to life-threatening flash flooding

00:58and a dangerous storm tide causing coastal inundation of some of those low-lying suburbs.

01:04Then into Friday, the latest track map does show Tropical Cyclone Alfred crossing the coast

01:08during Friday morning, but the exact timing of landfall will depend on how quickly it does

01:12approach and then move onto the coast. Regardless of the exact timing of the landfall, we can expect

01:17to see significant impacts well before landfall for many hours. And then heading into the rest

01:22of Friday, Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to be downgraded back into a Category 1 system and

01:27then a tropical low into the weekend, but we are still expected to see significant impacts all the

01:32way into Saturday, especially on the southern side of that Tropical Cyclone. This part of Australia

01:38is used to seeing severe thunderstorms in the spring and summer, and these of course can bring

01:42bursts of heavy rainfall and damaging to destructive winds. The difference though with a Tropical

01:46Cyclone is that wind and rain are sustained over many hours, and this can cause significant damage

01:51to property and vegetation, and of course cause life-threatening flash flooding. If you're away

01:57from the Tropical Cyclone warning area, we do also have a severe weather warning that extends all the

02:02way up to Gympie and down towards Coffs Harbour and the mid-north coast in New South Wales.

02:06Through these areas we may also see damaging to destructive wind gusts, as well as heavy to

02:10intense rainfall, and through this area we may see 24-hour rainfall totals of between 200 to

02:16400 millimetres, depending on exactly where Tropical Cyclone Alfred does cross. With the

02:21potential for heavy rainfall, there are a number of flood watches current across both Queensland

02:25and northern New South Wales. This is for the potential for widespread moderate to major

02:30flooding, particularly from Thursday night, and this could impact major population centres across

02:35major rivers. Finally, there is also a coastal hazards warning that extends all the way from

02:40Garry, Fraser Island, and down towards Forster on the mid-north coast. We are seeing damaging

02:45surf push onto the coast, leading to significant coastal erosion, as well as abnormally high tides,

02:50and as Tropical Cyclone Alfred moves even closer to the coast, these will both be exacerbated and

02:54we will see even more significant coastal erosion, particularly as a storm tide moves onto the coast

02:59closer towards that coastal crossing. Next, let's look at what we've seen so far today.

03:05Tropical Cyclone Alfred is spinning off the coast as you can see in this satellite imagery,

03:08and it has developed a little bit more of a symmetrical shape over that warm water off the

03:12coast of Brisbane. Today we have seen rainfall totals in excess of 50 millimetres for some parts.

03:17There's also very strong winds in excess of 100 kilometres an hour at Cape Byron,

03:21and we're also seeing those winds increasing across southeastern parts of Queensland.

03:26Let's take a closer look now at what we can expect closer to landfall,

03:29and these are looking at the winds at around 1500 metres above the surface. We can see here the

03:34centre of the cyclone, and there's very strong winds wrapping in a clockwise fashion around the

03:38Tropical Cyclone. As the system draws closer to the coast, we'll start to see those damaging to

03:42destructive winds push onto the coast, particularly around the Gold Coast and the northern parts of

03:46New South Wales. Thursday night is when we start to see the worst of those winds coming through,

03:51but importantly, as we get closer towards that crossing, we will see a period of calmer winds

03:56right in the centre of the cyclone. During this time, it will be very dangerous to go outside,

04:00because as the system does move further away, we will see those winds coming from the opposite

04:04direction very, very quickly. So we'll see that again, we'll see it pushing through there,

04:08with the centre of the cyclone being quite calm, and there's stronger winds coming through from

04:12the opposite direction, which can cause very dangerous conditions. In terms of rainfall,

04:17rain will really start to build during Wednesday night and Thursday, as those showers push onto

04:21the coast, and that will mean the ground will become quite wet and ready for that flooding to

04:26come through. The heaviest of the rainfall will come through as the cyclone crosses the coast.

04:30As you can see here, the heaviest rainfall is expected on the southern flank of the Tropical

04:34Cyclone. Rainfall totals will be very high on the southern flank of that system, and looking

04:39out to Saturday morning, we can expect to see widespread rainfall totals in excess of 100

04:43millimetres all the way from the Sunshine Coast and down towards the Mid-North Coast. But around

04:47the Gold Coast and the southern areas of that crossing, we may see those totals reach in excess

04:52of 400 to 800 millimetres, with higher isolated falls likely. So as Tropical Cyclone Alfred

04:59approaches the coast tonight and over the next few days, it is important that you have the latest

05:03information from the Bureau. You can get that from the website or the BOM Weather app, follow us on

05:07social media, and of course, follow all advice from your local emergency services.

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