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Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily sweeps across NSW | February 5, 2024 | Illawarra Mercury
Illawarra Mercury
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2/5/2024
Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Angus Hines on how ex-Tropical Cyclone Kirrily will affect weather in NSW. Video from the BOM.
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00:00
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Kerali has been bringing extensive rain and flooding across Queensland
00:05
for the last week.
00:06
It is now making a move to the south and over the next couple of days will swiftly cross
00:10
New South Wales with widespread rainfall there and some severe weather is on the way.
00:16
Let's start by looking at the satellite imagery.
00:18
This is water vapour satellite imagery showing us where the moisture in the atmosphere is
00:22
and the ex-tropical cyclone does stick out like a sore thumb, particularly last night
00:25
here with this high moisture content moving out of Queensland into northern New South
00:31
Wales as it follows a southerly trajectory.
00:34
Now let's see if we zoom in a little bit where it is located.
00:37
Currently the XTC marked here by the L on the map is over north-western parts of New
00:42
South Wales but it is extending a band of moisture, rain and cloud across central and
00:47
south-eastern parts of the state as well.
00:49
So we've already started to see some patchy rain kick in through this area with the heavier
00:53
falls over the northern interior of the state.
00:56
However through Monday and Tuesday we will see the rain really start to fill in right
01:01
through this region with a broad heavy rain warning in place.
01:04
It's just clearing out of southern parts of Queensland, this warning won't last too
01:08
much longer as all of the rainfall starts to spread out down here.
01:11
It does also stretch to include northern parts of Canberra.
01:15
Parts of this area do have damaging wind in the forecast as well and we'll talk about
01:18
that more soon.
01:19
But with rain being the most significant factor at play over the next couple of days, let's
01:24
check out the rain forecast.
01:26
Between Monday lunchtime, about the time of filming, and Tuesday lunchtime, we're going
01:30
to see a rapid movement of the XTC across the coastline.
01:34
This loop comes to an end at 6pm on Tuesday and you can see the ex-tropical cyclone and
01:39
most of the rain associated with it well and truly over the ocean by then.
01:43
So we're really talking Monday evening, overnight tonight and Tuesday morning for the potential
01:48
heavy falls to spread across New South Wales.
01:51
Let's play that again, this time we'll put the rain accumulations on and we can see how
01:54
much rain we're expecting and which places are likely to see the most significant falls.
01:59
It does look like the southern side of the low will get the most significant rain with
02:03
this broad band of 30-100mm expected.
02:07
In particular if we zoom in on the south east, a few things I'd like to point out.
02:11
Firstly Canberra, right in the line, right in the path of the heavier rainfall totals,
02:15
we could see somewhere between 50-100mm of rain in Canberra over the course of the next
02:20
24-36 hours.
02:22
As this does depart the country and move across the coast, the heaviest rain will be south
02:26
of Sydney.
02:27
So Sydney here itself, somewhere between 5-20mm of rain is in the forecast, Wollongong maybe
02:32
20-30mm of rain, the heavier falls though about the south east coast forecast district
02:37
for New South Wales.
02:39
Also worth noting, we could see a little bit of the heavier rain spill across the border
02:43
and affect some north eastern parts of Victoria.
02:46
All along this band of rain we could also see some thunderstorms which bring locally
02:50
heavier falls so I wouldn't rule out a couple of spots, particularly in this darker red
02:54
area that do pick up around about 150mm between now and lunchtime on Tuesday.
03:01
So with all the rain coming, we do expect some flood response from the rivers.
03:05
These are the flood watches across New South Wales.
03:08
Basically these are the areas expecting to see flooding, with a few moderate flood watches
03:13
in play for parts of New South Wales and minor flood watches also including the Queen Behan
03:17
which does run through Canberra.
03:20
Now I did mention wind earlier on, there is going to be some strong and gusty winds on
03:23
Monday morning and into the afternoon.
03:25
As we get to Monday night we'll see the stronger winds really do die away and they don't pick
03:30
back up again on Tuesday.
03:31
So some damaging wind possible around north western New South Wales on Monday but the
03:36
wind threat does diminish as the next few days progress.
03:40
So to stay up to date with the latest warnings and severe weather information you can find
03:44
that at the Bureau website and on our app.
03:46
Thanks very much for tuning in.
03:47
[Music]
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