Delay in tropical cyclone development off Far North Queensland

Australian Community Media

A warning is in place for areas between Ayr and Sarina, including Mackay, with winds expected to reach 64km/h+. The system is expected to cross the coast on Thursday, January 25, 2024, as a category 2.

Transcript

00:00 Tropical cyclone warnings are now current between Eyre and Serena and we've had a

00:04 bit of a delay in tropical cyclone development but we're likely to see it

00:08 develop into a cyclone later tonight. So why is that? Well there's been a few

00:13 reasons why. Yesterday we did mention that dry air wrapping on the western

00:17 side donated by this orange area and that's wrapped right into the

00:20 circulation seen here by the low-pressure symbol and that has

00:24 hindered development overnight. The other reason is while we have good outflow on

00:28 the southern side of the system we need good outflow on the northern side as

00:32 well and that helps ventilation of the system once those thunderstorms develop.

00:36 But due to the lack of thunderstorm development and a lack of stronger

00:40 outflow on the northern side combined with that dry air that has led to

00:44 continuation in the delay of becoming a tropical cyclone. But once these

00:49 conditions improve which look to happen during today and into tonight we're

00:53 likely to see it develop into a tropical cyclone tonight. So for that reason we

00:58 do have a cyclone warnings current between Eyre and Serena and that does

01:03 include Mackay, Bowen and the Whitsunday Islands. While watch areas extend further

01:08 north. Now this means if you live in these orange areas you could experience

01:11 winds gusting to 64 kilometres an hour or greater in the next 12 to 24 hours.

01:17 And we're likely to see this area extend further northwards as we move through

01:20 the tonight and into the early hours of tomorrow. Now looking at the current

01:24 track map we're likely to become a tropical cyclone sometime tonight into

01:28 the early hours of tomorrow morning as a category 1 system and then we expect it

01:33 to further intensify as it moves towards the southwest crossing the coast as a

01:37 category 2 system late Thursday night into the early hours of Friday between

01:42 that Townsville to Eyre locations. And in those areas we could see winds gusting

01:48 to 120 kilometres an hour with damaging to destructive winds that could bring

01:52 damage to homes properties and businesses widespread heavy rainfall

01:57 that could lead to flash and riverine flooding and we can also see some of the

02:01 locations south of the cyclone could approach the highest astronomical tide

02:05 of the year as well as it crosses. Then we expect it to

02:10 weaken rapidly as it moves inland bringing widespread heavy rain for our

02:14 inland communities. So let's look at that in a little more detail. So once this

02:19 system moves through now this is just one scenario we're lucky we've got

02:22 pretty good confidence that we're lucky to see it crossing in that Townsville to

02:25 Eyre locations Thursday night into Friday morning but then as it moves

02:29 inland there's a bit of uncertainty on exactly where it will travel and what it

02:33 will do. In this scenario it brings widespread heavy rainfall to northern

02:37 and central parts of Queensland on Friday and Saturday and that could

02:41 continue into Sunday and Monday through western parts of Queensland as well. While

02:45 some other guidance has it moving more down through central parts for those in

02:49 central inland parts in Queensland it's important that you stay up to date of

02:53 the latest forecasts and warnings as this system moves inland. So for those

02:57 right on the coast and those inland we'll continue to keep you updated here

03:01 at the Bureau via our website app and social media. Track maps will be issued

03:05 every three hours and as always stay up to date the latest advice from all

03:09 emergency services.

03:12 (gentle music)

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