Exploring Super Bowl Prop Bets: Focus on Dallas Goedert

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00:00Which is another one that if you're watching people talk about betting on the Super Bowl,

00:04if they don't like Goddard's yards, they love his receptions over at four and a half. I mean,

00:09to me, this is like the most, it's crazy, but the most talked about player prop, I think,

00:15from what I have seen going into the week. So we'll get all of the opinions of our panelists

00:20here on the show and our hosts, but let's start off with you, Joe, because you may have a different

00:24approach to Goddard going into tonight. Yeah. Fading the public here a little bit,

00:29and the public has actually gotten it right on paper, but we're talking about in practice now.

00:35So to quote Allen Iverson, we're talking about practice. This is what we're doing here. Let me

00:38tell you what we're doing here at Dallas Goddard, because the yardage is a good number. I understand

00:43the variable of this, and Matt, who does every show with me, knows that I'm somebody who likes

00:47to bet the yardage, because why? You have more variance with that. You have that one big play,

00:51you could maybe get it in one spot, right? But in this one, instead, I'm going to hyper-focus

00:55on something else here, which is I'm going to hyper-focus on the reception, something I rarely

00:59do, but instead I'm going to go the under, and here's why. He was injured for a few weeks,

01:04right? So he missed some time. Came back in week 10. Since week 10, he has gone over the four and

01:09a half receptions how many times, folks? Twice. Those two times? Both against the Washington

01:14Commanders. So just to put that out there, if you think it's a close game, if you think it's

01:20a grinding kind of situation there, then I don't see where this prolific, unless you're talking

01:26about this game going well over the over here, and we're talking about getting into a 35-31

01:31kind of contest, I'd be shocked if Goddard gets the opportunity to get that many targets in this

01:36game. So for me, I'm actually going with the under there again. The only two times he went

01:40over this? Against Washington twice, and that's a familiarity factor there too. That's an exposure

01:44factor, and Washington, we all know what kind of problems they had at times defensively this

01:49season. So I'm in the under category on this one, and I can't be shaken from it. All right,

01:56Matt, let's go to you here on Goddard. So let's imagine that I'm a wagerer coming in cold.

02:03I need to look at all of my information. Part of what I do is I look at where's the public going?

02:10Where's the public money? And when I see something like this, and then I start to tap into the

02:16talking heads, as you said, when I have something like this, guys, I stay away. I just stay away

02:22because I don't want to sit there and be biting off that corner thumbnail, the one that always

02:27you pull down too far and it bleeds. I don't want to be doing that over something that I knew going

02:32in everyone else was on. That's always something I've always wanted to avoid. It's always repelled

02:38me. So I'm off of this completely based off of the fact that there's so much hype on it. I'll

02:44make my money elsewhere. George? Yeah, I said the same thing last night, Matt. Very similar that

02:51I do like Goddard. All right, but everybody's on this. And that scares me a little bit that

02:56all the public is on Goddard to have a big game here. I think he gets his reception total. The

03:02yardage total is going to be a little tough. Kansas City, not good against tight ends, right?

03:05They were the fifth worst team against tight ends this year. So that maybe here, but I'm more of a

03:11Smith guy today, more than Goddard. They're going to run the same types of patterns here. So that's

03:15where I'm going to go with this. More Smith over Goddard, but I think it's going to be close. That

03:19being said, as you guys have both pointed out, you take out the Washington games, he doesn't get this.

03:25He just doesn't. So I'm probably going to stay away from it as well. I do have some Goddard bets

03:29here. Plus 320 for an anytime touchdown. That's where probably my fate, because it's the best

03:34number I could find for one of their starting players here, even though touchdowns can be

03:37very finicky to put it nicely. Yeah. And look, what's happened in the past, the last couple of

03:44weeks is the most dangerous thing to bet on because the NFL more than any other league in sports is a

03:54week to week league. Yes. Teams get hot. We've seen it before Detroit laid an egg, Washington got hot

04:00and I get it. But as far as the players and the props are concerned, if you're simply going off

04:06what you've seen the previous week is a danger zone for betting on props, especially in the Superbowl.

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