M23 rebels aim is to overthrow Kinshasa administration, researcher says, as UN warns of regional war

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00:00Rwandan-backed M23 rebels have been holding a press conference in Goma.

00:04It comes after President Philip Tsitsigedi said yesterday that the Congolese army is mounting

00:09a vigorous response to Rwandan-backed fighters who say they have captured most of the city

00:14of Goma in the east. In a fiery address to the nation on Wednesday night, Tsitsigedi called

00:19on citizens to mobilise and support the military's efforts in holding back the M23's advance.

00:25The rebels are now moving south towards Bukavu, that's the capital of

00:30South Kivu province, in an apparent attempt to expand their area of control.

00:35Matthew Mary-Karushe, Hasmore.

00:38Many of the millions of people trapped by the violence in the Eastern Democratic

00:42Republic of the Congo face a terrible choice. Retreat into Congo's interior,

00:48or as these people are doing, cross into nearby Rwanda, which is accused of backing the rebels.

00:56I will return to Goma one day. I'm Congolese. I'm confident our government will do everything

01:03possible so that peace returns in Congolese towns. As of today, it's been 13 years of suffering,

01:11running and coming back, day by day, and not experiencing real peace.

01:19On Sunday, the city of Goma fell almost entirely to the M23 armed group and Rwandan troops.

01:26But three days later, President Félix Tshisekedi refused to admit defeat,

01:30vowing a vigorous response from the Congolese military.

01:34Tshisekedi blasted the international community for not doing more to come to the aid of the DRC.

01:42I would like to directly appeal to the international community and the African Union.

01:47Rwanda continues to openly violate the fundamental principles of the UN Charter,

01:53as well as regional agreements. Your silence and your passivity in the face of the barbaric

02:00actions taken by the Kigali regime and the atrocities it committed on our soil

02:05are an insult not only to the DRC, but also to universal values of justice and peace.

02:15The M23's advance echoes the rebel group's capture of Goma over a decade ago,

02:20which only lasted momentarily due to international pressure.

02:24In the current conflict, the United Nations, the United States, China,

02:28the European Union and Angola have called on Rwanda to again withdraw its troops.

02:34The United Nations has warned that the humanitarian situation in Goma is extremely worrying,

02:39with food and water shortages, overflowing hospitals and looting.

02:44Let's get some analysis now and speak to Alex Vines. He's the head of the Africa

02:49program at Chatham House. Thank you so much for joining us on the program, Alex.

02:54So we had that address from the president yesterday in which he warned that the

02:58presence of Rwandan soldiers is leading to an escalation with unpredictable consequences.

03:05This new mobilisation that the Congolese leader is calling for could

03:08lead to a massive escalation in the conflict, couldn't it?

03:12It really could. I mean, the UN last week was warning about a regional war.

03:16It's repeated that concern today and it's saying that it's very worried that the Congolese

03:26city to the south, the capital of South Kivu, Bukavu, might be the next target for M23 rebels.

03:33And so the Congolese military, with their partners from Burundi,

03:39are reinforcing their defence and security preparations there.

03:43This is very alarming. I mean, there is speculation that in fact M23,

03:48with the support of Rwanda, is actually now trying to grab territory and annex it.

03:53So the stakes are really high and I was glad to hear on your reporting that China has

04:00also now added its name to the countries that have called for Rwanda to withdraw and for a ceasefire.

04:07Yeah, plenty of condemnation coming from the international community.

04:11But Tshisekedi has criticised countries for their silence, for failing to act.

04:18We obviously had the same rebels try to seize Goma back in 2012.

04:22We had several nations announce sanctions then against Rwanda

04:26and that led to the defeat of the rebels then.

04:29Could the international community be doing more here this time round?

04:33Absolutely. I mean, we're in a different situation now.

04:36In 2012, it was a combination of international pressure,

04:41sanctions, really squeezing the revenue flows onto Rwanda that resulted in the

04:48occupation of Goma just being around 12 days and then M23 kind of withdrawing.

04:56And also pressure of an intervention brigade linked to the UN with brave troops from countries

05:04like Tanzania, from Malawi, from South Africa involved.

05:07This time round, the international community does seem very divided and I have been puzzled

05:12not to hear stronger voices out of the African continent, particularly the African Union.

05:18It is true that the East African community, which is currently led by President Rutu of Kenya,

05:23has strongly condemned what's going on at the moment and has called for a cessation of hostilities.

05:30But it looks as if Africa is rather divided just now on this particular issue.

05:34Just on that summit that you were mentioning there,

05:37we didn't have the Congolese leader attending. He refused to attend.

05:41Rwandan President Pukagame was there.

05:45Kiskele has also said he doesn't want to speak to the M23 rebels.

05:48He doesn't want to have any sort of dialogue with them directly.

05:51Do you think he should be more open to speaking to them and negotiating?

05:56Well, one of the reasons that these things,

05:59the peace process that the Angolans were trying to moderate, mediate on the Luanda process,

06:07unraveled because there was a demand for direct dialogue between Teshikedi and M23.

06:13And he said no to that.

06:15And bear in mind also that M23 is also different from the 2012 version of it,

06:22because it's now saying that one of its ambitions is to overthrow the Kinshasa administration.

06:27And over the last couple of years since it re-emerged, since 2022,

06:33it's also been making alliances in eastern Congo with some of the other armed groups.

06:38And they do certainly have a grievance in terms of Kinshasa.

06:42And some of them may actually be considering that

06:45separation from the Democratic Republic of Congo is one of their objectives.

06:51Let's talk about the humanitarian side of all of this.

06:53We've had reports of half a million people being forced out of their homes because of the fighting.

06:58Give us a sense of the humanitarian situation in the region right now.

07:03Oh, look, until the Sudan crisis,

07:06this was the largest concentration of internally displaced people on the globe.

07:13The eastern, these eastern areas, Great Lakes areas of Congo have seen significant and repeated

07:22humanitarian suffering.

07:24This current re-emergence of conflict has at least displaced a further 500,000 people.

07:30I mean, Goma itself is normally a city of two million,

07:34but it had absorbed maybe another million people that had been displaced due to years of conflict.

07:40So this is a massive concern for humanitarian response and how to provide support,

07:48which is another reason why a ceasefire,

07:50a cessation of hostilities is so urgent that that's achieved very quickly.

07:55Yeah, it's quite alarming the images that we're seeing coming out of Goma and the east of the DRC.

08:00Can you give our viewers some context here?

08:03What's driving this conflict exactly?

08:05Well, there's obviously the history that triggered this off

08:08with the Rwandan genocide and the displacement of people from that.

08:14But more in more recent years, I mean,

08:16eastern Congo is a focus point of over 100 armed groups,

08:22of which probably M23 is now the most virulent.

08:26I myself think that one of the motivations for Rwanda is economics.

08:32This is a very mineral rich area and there is significant money to be made

08:38out of mining in this region.

08:42And so that is also an attraction.

08:44It's one of the drivers of the conflict, I think.

08:47Just a final question for you, Alex.

08:49We've had heightened tensions between Rwanda and South Africa

08:53over this conflict in the east of the DRC.

08:56Could you see the fighting possibly spilling over into the region because of this?

09:01Well, there have been conversations between the South African President Siru Ramaphosa

09:07and Paul Kagame, the president of Rwanda.

09:10But if you look at the kind of presidential feed from Kigali,

09:16Mr. Kagame is saying that there's something quite different from President Ramaphosa,

09:21which is that the South African peacekeepers that have been killed in Goma

09:26were not killed by M23 or by Rwandans,

09:29but by friendly fire by the Congolese military.

09:32So it's quite confusing at the moment exactly what had occurred.

09:37What is clear is that the South Africans are very alarmed and concerned

09:41that their own people have been killed in peacekeeping operations.

09:46And I think you're right.

09:47The tensions between Pretoria and Kigali have really ramped up.

09:50They weren't good anyway, but they're pretty nonexistent.

09:54There have been Malawians that have also been killed in this resurgence of conflict.

09:59So you could also configure that actually the Southern African Development Community,

10:03a significant part of it, is now in opposition to Rwanda.

10:08Having said that, Mozambique has stayed away from a SADC summit,

10:13a Southern African Development Community Summit, that was to discuss the DRC.

10:18And I think that's because the Rwandan military are very present in northern Mozambique

10:23on counterinsurgency operations there in support of the Mozambican government.

10:27Alex, it was great to get your insight.

10:29Thank you so much for joining us on the programme today.

10:31Really good to get your analysis there.

10:34Thank you very much.

10:36Well, let's move on.

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