Rwanda's claim of FDLR threat is not credible, DR Congo expert says

FRANCE 24 English

M23 fighters allied with Rwandan troops on Sunday entered the centre of Bukavu, another key city in eastern DR Congo. Kinshasa has accused Rwanda of seizing land in the area for mining and agricultural purposes. Rwanda says it has taken defensive measures against ethnic Hutu militias such as the FDLR in the region – a claim that is not credible, according to Thierry Vircoulon, Associate Researcher at IFRI's Africa Centre.  Visit our website: http://www.france24.com  Like us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English  Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/France24_en

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00:00This is Apropos, the day after seizing a second major city in eastern Congo, Rwanda-backed

00:08rebels are tightening their grip on Bukavu. M23 fighters captured the city of 1.3 million

00:14people on Sunday after it was abandoned by Congolese forces. With fears that the offensive

00:20could ignite a regional conflict, the international community has multiplied calls for a de-escalation

00:26and ceasefire so far in vain, as Emerald Maxwell explains.

00:33Vendors selling fruit and people milling about. A day after M23 rebel fighters entered the

00:39centre of Bukavu, the city appeared calm.

00:42We're less afraid now. The fear is still there but little by little we see more people moving

00:48about.

00:51The troops who enter do not bother anyone. You can go right past them and they will not

00:55stop you or ask for identification.

01:00The columns of fighters met with little resistance on Sunday as they arrived in the key city.

01:06But there are still signs of violence and the looting that took place by men, women

01:11and children, some of whom picked up weapons abandoned by retreating government troops.

01:18We want the authorities who are now in the city to help us with security. Here in Bukavu

01:24we have a serious problem with these young children who have already taken up arms. They

01:28are shooting in the neighbourhoods, preventing people from going to work. We ask the authorities

01:34in the city to take away their weapons so that every citizen can go about their daily

01:38activities as usual.

01:41The fall of the city of one million people gives the M23 fighters and Rwandan troops

01:47total control of Lake Kivu following their capture of Goma last month. Thousands had

01:53already fled Bukavu ahead of the M23's arrival. The conflict has so far displaced more than

01:59six million people in the region.

02:02Growing international calls have been made for Rwanda to end its military backing of

02:06M23, though it still denies that its troops are in the DRC, all vying for control of the

02:12country's trillions of dollars in mineral wealth.

02:15At the African Union summit over the weekend, leaders continued to call for a ceasefire,

02:20although they've been reluctant to take decisive action against M23 or Rwanda, which has one

02:26of Africa's most powerful militaries.

02:28For more, let's cross now to Thierry Verculon, associate researcher at the IFRI's Africa

02:36Centre. Thank you so much for being with us on the programme this evening. As we know,

02:41one and a half million Hutus fled to Congo after the genocide in Rwanda. So for the Rwandan

02:49president, do they still represent a threat? What is the root theory of this current violence?

02:56Well, the Rwandan president is indeed justifying his support, his military support to the M23

03:06because of what is called the armed group, that is called the FDLR, and indeed the FDLR

03:13are the legacy, I would say, of the people who committed genocide and who fled to Congo

03:23in 1994. The problem with this justification is that the FDLR group is supposedly about,

03:36I would say, 1,000, 2,000 fighters maximum, while actually the Rwandan army and even the

03:46M23 alone himself is twice the size of that armed group. And we've seen that the M23,

03:55with the support of the Rwandan military, has been able to defeat the Congolese army

04:00in Goma, plus the South African army, the South African troops that were present and

04:07some mercenaries. So it's not very credible to say, like the Rwandan president, that the

04:15FDLR constitute an existential threat to Rwanda. Definitely Rwanda is not threatened by the

04:24FDLR, who are much too weak to do that.

04:29Anna, as you suggested there, the M23, it's one of nearly 100 different militia operating

04:36in eastern Congo. Why does the region remain so unstable?

04:41Well, the region is unstable for the past 30 years because there is an economy of, a

04:50predatory economy that is very useful for a lot of stakeholders and that enables armed

04:58groups to fund themselves, but also enables the people behind the armed groups to make

05:06a lot of money. And therefore, the centre of that system of conflict is the predatory

05:15economy in the Great Lakes. And that's why it is so sustainable over the past 30 years.

05:23And the African Union, it's highlighting concerns that Congo could break up. Is that where this

05:29conflict is heading? Is this going to lead inevitably to a wider war, do you believe?

05:35Well, we have been in that situation at the end of the 90s. So what we are seeing now

05:43is kind of the same scenario that the one that happened in the late 90s. And we see

05:50that there are already several foreign armies who are involved in that conflict. As I mentioned,

05:56the South African army was deployed in North Kivu. There is a Burundian army who is deployed

06:03in South Kivu. And now there is the Ugandan army, which is at the border, but the son

06:12of President Museveni threatened actually to move into Congo with the Ugandan army.

06:19So we can see the rhetoric, at least it's a rhetoric of a regional war. And the past

06:27experience unfortunately is also in that region, is also an experience of regional war. That's

06:32why everybody see basically the same type of scenario repeating itself.

06:38And M23, it also captured parts of this region for the first time back in 2012. Now, it did

06:45withdraw following pressure from the US and others. That pressure included sanctions that

06:50were placed on Rwanda at that time. So what is happening here? Are these militants taking

06:57advantage? Do you think of the fact that the Trump administration and Europe also, it's

07:02almost entirely consumed by conflict elsewhere?

07:05Yes, definitely. The international context is not the same now. It's very different from

07:13what it was in 2012 when the M23 took over Goma, as you mentioned. Immediately in November

07:232012, immediately after Goma was taken over by the M23, there were international sanctions

07:32against Rwanda by the US, by the European Union, et cetera. Now we don't see those sanctions.

07:40There are some talks about sanctions, but they have not yet materialized first. Secondly,

07:49also the other difference is that in 2012, the UN played a major role, both diplomatically

07:59and militarily in the Kivus. Now we see that the UN and the MONUSCO, the peacekeeping mission

08:07of the UN, has absolutely no initiative and is almost absent of that conflict. And thirdly,

08:18there is definitely the Trump administration that is obsessing everybody. And therefore

08:29the Congo problem of the M23 problem is not, of course, on the agenda or not much on the

08:36agenda. So the very different international context between 2012 and now explains why

08:45there is actually not yet sanctions against Rwanda. And the UN is not supposed to be doing

08:55something because, as I said, they have a peacekeeping mission on the ground. It's actually

09:00not active at all.

09:03What are the implications of all of this, this ongoing violence for civilians? Hundreds

09:07of thousands of people have been forced to flee their homes in eastern Congo.

09:12Yes, no, definitely. Each time there is fighting there, there is mass, massive displacement

09:22of population. And the M23 order the people to leave the camp around the city of Goma.

09:30That means several hundred, several, about four or five hundred thousand people. And

09:42they have basically nowhere to go, really. And also it creates a very serious security

09:51problem in the cities of Goma and Bukavu, because they are big cities, more than one

09:58million people. And as the police is as left and they are no local authorities, the risk

10:07of looting and the risk of crime is very high. And there will be, as it was mentioned in

10:15your in your reporting, that there is already some crime problems, some insecurity problems.

10:21So it's very difficult to have major cities without police and security.

10:28And of course, the consequences are dangerous.

10:33Thierry, we'll have to leave it there for now. We do really appreciate your analysis.

10:38Thank you so much for joining us on the programme this evening. That's Thierry Verculon, he's

10:42associate researcher at the IFRI's Africa Centre. We'll leave it there for now. Do stay

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