Analyzing the Props: NFC Championship Game Best Bets

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00:00Same total as the AFC title game at 47 and a half, but a very different spread.

00:05It's very close for the AFC championship. It's nearly a touchdown now in favor of Philadelphia.

00:12Tom, in terms of the numbers dictating the game flow of what we are going to see

00:16at Lincoln Financial Field, how does this game differ in your mind?

00:20Not only the game flow, but I have concerns with Brian Robinson for Washington. He's been okay,

00:28especially as of late. I know he broke off a couple big runs last week, but he was not good

00:31versus Tampa on the ground. So if he's been okay, and I just personally just don't have a lot of

00:35confidence in him, Austin Eckler is continuing to get involved, and they're going to be playing

00:39from behind. What does that turn to for Washington? It's probably turning to Washington,

00:43moving the ball effectively through the air, whether it's Terry McLaurin, whether it's Diame

00:47Brown, but ultimately that comes down to Daniels, because we know that he's going to be spreading

00:52it around. Zach Ertz is being involved, especially the second half of the season to close the year.

00:56He was very good. So I think turning to Jaden Daniels over 21 and a half completions is my

01:01favorite bet for probably this entire weekend. This is what they've done the entire season,

01:05Cliff Kingsbury in the offense, move the ball effectively. He has to scramble the pocket,

01:10whatever it might be, get completions, pick up first downs, limit mistakes for Daniels.

01:14He's been awesome at this. The completion percentage was through the roof, especially

01:18for the first portion of the season. So picking up completions and effectively moving the ball

01:22down the field, whether it turns into points and they go four and four down, they don't convert

01:25wherever it might be, but picking up first downs and sustaining drives will be the winning recipe.

01:30If the commanders keep it close, I don't think they win this game, but they will keep it at

01:33least somewhat close. All right. It looks like we have to book Tom Becquio again for tomorrow's

01:38football Friday, because apparently he's on the right side here of this Philadelphia Eagles game,

01:41but Sundays are for Saquon. Some of these numbers, Tom, outrageous. It feels like you look at the

01:46carries prop in modern day NFL, 24 and a half. You take a look at the rushing prop, which if

01:52handles 125 and have other outlets, Tom, closer to 130. You look at the receiving yards, 12 and a

01:58half. You're looking for probably just one reception, but the touchdown prop minus two 50

02:02is way. How do you approach taking Saquon Barkley this weekend? Or is it just not enough value left

02:08in some of these numbers? There's probably not a lot of value left in a lot of these numbers,

02:13but there's one spot to go and it wasn't listed there. And it's going to be Saquon over longest

02:19rushing attempt, which I believe is 21 and a half or 20 and a half, 22 and a half. It's somewhere

02:23around there last week. It was 19 and a half. I expected it to move up. It is. And how many times

02:28have we said it, Donnie? Obviously, Kevin always talking about it. The home run potential from

02:31Saquon. That's what we see literally every week. And it's not just like, oh, he breaks off like a

02:3525 yard carry or a 30 yard carry. It's like, it's like 60 or 70 yards. So if you don't want to play

02:40the one 30 rushing yards, I get it. You don't want to play the combined. I get it carries the

02:44over longest rush. He can do that at any time. And you would think if he gets close to a buck

02:5025 on the ground, there will be a bunch, if not at least one big plays running the football. Let's

02:57talk about Jaden Daniels, who you mentioned your favorite bet over 21 and a half completions

03:02and Jalen hurts. I do want to focus on the birds QB, of course, dealing with the ailing and injured

03:09left knee in Beck. Yo, despite his team being nearly a touchdown favorite to win a conference

03:14championship and appear in a second Superbowl in the last three years, those numbers on Jalen hurts

03:21more than likely because of the injury issue are drastically low. How will you approach betting

03:27Jalen hurts entering Sunday? Or do you wait until we get to kick Sunday to see exactly how he looks

03:33in the game? There's only one spot that I would go with hurts this weekend. This is just like,

03:38if you want to have action on hurts, whatever it might be, I understand, like, altering him down

03:42and putting him into some SGP, which, you know, I'm not super fond of, but I think it has to be

03:47passing touchdowns because I'm not laying the juice for sake one. I do expect the Eagles to

03:52win in score points. If he has this knee issue, will there be a few lesser chances for him to

03:58have a tush push? They're just not going to put him in that position and then just be a passing

04:02touchdown here or there. So the passing touchdown prop for hurts may be the best way to go. Okay.

04:07I think the Eagles win. I maybe don't want to lay six and a half points and I'm not going to lay

04:11the juice on, but we know that hurts can have the passing touchdowns to a God or to an AJ Brown.

04:17So those are the quarterback comparisons and Tom, let's make sure before we send you off into the

04:23weekend here on the early line, we get all of those top prompts run through them quickly. If

04:27you wouldn't mind. Yeah. Keon Coleman, just don't expect him to play a huge role for the bills in

04:32the passing game under 23 and a half receiving yards that moved as that line has moved to 20

04:36marquees Brown under three and a half receptions. He's not going to have,

04:39he needs to have at least six targets, seven targets to get to four, which I don't expect

04:42to happen. Just give him the snap camp that he has an overall target chair. And then turning

04:45to Daniels. I do think he will be in for solid game. The rush can certainly be there if they

04:49are playing from.

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